Tuesday, May 20, 2025
A message of hope
It is possible that with age comes serenity. More likely, having lived through many decades, an older person has already had experiences that serve to put today's news into context and give a point of comparison. The result is that, viewed by me as an older person, life today isn't as bad as some people think it is. So, to give you some hope, I'd like to talk why that is so.
The example that probably has the most data is crime statistics vs. fear of crime. Time and time again, and in different countries on different continents, there have been many recent examples where polls showed that people are increasingly afraid of violent crimes, while various statistics clearly show that the probability of becoming a victim of violent crime is decreasing. Much of the difference between reality and perception can be explained by how media evolved over the past 30 years: We have a lot more news sources today than we had 30 years ago, and in the competition between these news sources, exaggeration brings more revenue. Any given crime that happens today is both far more likely to be reported, and also likely to be reported in the most lurid way possible. That influences everybody's perception, and makes the world look a lot more dangerous than it is.
Increased reporting sometimes goes hand in hand with increased understanding, adding another important factor to our perception: The broadening of definitions. For example, our understanding of mental health has improved, which leads to people getting more easily diagnosed for depression or autism, which leads to statistics that suggest that depression and autism is a lot more prevalent today than it was in the previous century. Another example of better understanding leading to more reporting is when during the me too movement, the reported rape cases in the US shot up to nearly double in the span of 5 years. The sad reality is that rape cases were simply very much under-reported due to shame before, just like depression cases were under-reported before. It is very hard to say whether these things actually went up or down, we are just very much more aware of them. In Germany this year a politician lost his seat in parliament due to accusations of "sexual violence"; while part of that was due to an intrigue and somebody in his party making false statements under a false name, the proven misbehavior of that politician was described as "flirting" and "touching a woman's arm". That sure was inappropriate, especially from a man in a position of power towards younger women, but wouldn't have registered as sexual violence in the previous century. In reality, the situation in the previous century was worse, but the broadened definition and increased reporting is making women feel a lot less safe today.
Sometimes the increased fear is simply due to younger people not having been around when things were actually worse. I remember reading Tom Clancy's Red Storm Rising in the mid-80's, when it came out, and Third World War scenario of a Soviet Union launching a conventional attack on Europe was scary as hell, because it very much reflected our fears at that time. I read the same book 20 years later, and it had stopped being scary, due to the fall of the Soviet Union. While Putin is certainly a nasty piece of work, the actual threat he poses ranks a lot lower than that of the Soviet Union in the 80's. Another example is society's treatment of queer people: When I was a kid, homosexuality was still illegal in many western countries. In the USA, the supreme court decision of Lawrence vs. Texas that ended the last anti-sodomy laws was in 2003. Having your sexual identity getting embroiled in today's culture war certainly isn't pleasant, but objectively speaking the situation for queer people in first world countries has much improved over the past 50 years. Feeling that something that happens today is a lot worse than things were before is natural, and the lack of awareness of how much worse things actually were before gets even worse when we go beyond a typical human lifespan. The Covid-19 pandemic was bad, but the Spanish Flu or the Black Plague were objectively much worse, there just aren't many people other than historians that have this point of comparison.
Finally, society's attitude towards victimhood and towards sensitivity have changed a lot. 50 years ago, the last thing you wanted was to be seen as a victim; today some people revel in victimhood. I'm currently watching the TV series Will Trent, in which the two main characters are constantly depicted as traumatized victims of their childhood in foster care, while still solving crime cases. If you are used to detective series or films from the previous century, that seems quite weird, but is simply a reflection of how attitudes have changed.
Of course, many of these societal changes have been powers for good, and have been responsible for today's situation being better than things were half a century ago. You can't improve things if there is no awareness. But my message of hope is that increased awareness of bad things is a good thing, because it leads to improvement, and doesn't mean that these bad things suddenly happen now, when they were unknown before. Catholic priests didn't suddenly become paedophile in the 1990s, it was our awareness of their behavior that suddenly increased, and probably led to lot fewer of them being able to act with impunity today. We might feels poorer today, and beset by dangers, but in reality the world is a lot richer today than it was before, life spans have increased, and a lot of dangers are actually a lot lower than they were before. We are just more sensitive to whatever bad things are left.
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I would posit that a lot of people are sensitive to regression, too. One of the reasons for people to feel bad is when you lose ground; and ground is being lost. So while, to use crime as a fine example, its much better today....the fear of it slipping back to the way things used to be is frankly pretty worrying. Likewise, to use another example, for my entire lifetime women had better reproductive rights which were suddenly degraded with a single supreme court decision a couple years ago. So much of the negativity today is not a lack of awareness of how much worse it used to be, but a recognition (and fear) of us slipping back; progress is hard to achieve, and harder to retain. Bad things come easy, and a lot of bad shit is going down now that is causing a regression. (Yes, speaking from the US here)
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