The danger of predictions

Nobel laureate Niels Bohr once said that ""Prediction is very difficult, especially if it's about the future." That makes me doubt my wisdom of having posted my prediction of the WoW patch 1.10 release date. Because checking my blog stats with Sitemeter I found that this prediction is currently the most popular entry page of my blog. I'm the top Google hit for "WoW patch 1.10 release", and on the front page when looking for "WoW patch 1.10".

The problem in that is that it's just a prediction, based on the fact that Blizzard Europe is running a "play patch 1.10 on the test servers" contest until the 28th of March, and the 29th of March is a Wednesday (European server maintenance day). So guessing that the patch is scheduled to go live on the 29th is a reasonable assumption, but there is no guarantee. Blizzard could have decided that between the test realm run and going live they still need a week or two to digest the results of the test. Or the test could show that there is a problem, and Blizzard needs some more time to fix some bugs.

So if a week from now you see a horde of people with torches and pitchforks heading in my direction, you know why: Patch 1.10 didn't go live as predicted. That is the danger of predictions. :)
- posted by Tobold @ 11:07 AM Permanent Link