I'm betting Warhammer Online will be a hit... not as big as WoW, but bigger than others. They're doing all the right things to make it a success - simple graphics, easy game-play, humour... Those from WoW wanting a more involved pvp experience will migrate for sure, and the fan-base is a huge plus.
 

The article’s point that it may be difficult to copy WoW’s success is well taken, and has been argued before. Various analyses, including some of your own, have listed the many simultaneous reasons (instant playability / accessibility being one of the major ones) why WoW is the phenomenon it is.

However, I think there is one major precondition for WoW’s success. And that was the lack of any real competition. There was no other similar game that combined all its strong points and features on the market at the time.

Apart from things like PR, funding and thorough development and testing, any game willing to push WoW off its throne will have to:

¨ Improve on WoW’s degree of playability and accessibility;
¨ Provide significantly better graphics (in both technical AND design terms);
¨ Have more varied and interesting quests;
¨ Have more varied and interesting NPC’s & NPC opponents;
¨ Be better at PvP;
¨ Be better at roleplaying features (player housing, emotes, physical characterization);
¨ Be better at depicting the setting (generic fantasy for sure, but more internally consistent and making “suspension of disbelief” easier. Azeroth is a pretty shallow world. Internally consistent does not mean lacking a sense of humor, though);
¨ Allowing a greater degree of player input (up to a point, player actions should *matter*)

That is a tall order, and we may be several years away from all conditions coming together for another runaway hit. Quite likely, various minor and major improvements to the mmorpg design will have to be developed by less successful games in the meantime, that are adopted and refined by the next WoW-class hit mmorpg. There is also the technical race; right now, WoW is the only major modern mmorpg capable of being adequately run by low-end and old (4-5 years) PC’s. In just a few years, an overwhelming majority of gamers will have systems capable of running graphics engines far more sophisticated than WoW’s.

I would personally bet that the next really BIG game will only appear in the next decade…

In the meantime, WoW will remain the top dog. Burning Crusade will temporarily increase its subscription numbers, maybe up to 3 million accounts in the western markets alone.

What I do think what will happen in the next couple of years, though, is that many players will drift away to games that are much better at one or two things than WoW. People with a penchant for PvP may very well defect to Warhammer Online, Fury and possibly Age of Conan; roleplayers could shift to Hero’s Journey and a few other games better at roleplaying. Hardcore raiders might find a new home in Vanguard.

In short, I think it likely that WoW’s playerbase will be “nibbled away” by the better of the new crop of games. Whether this will significantly impact WoW’s total subscription numbers is hard to predict, since the game still seems to grow, even in the western markets. It could, however, conceivably have a negative impact on the “core game elements”: PvP, Raiding and roleplaying (and maybe also crafting) as practiced on the various servers might decline to a degree proportionately much higher than the actual number of players leaving. This could significantly affect the mood and atmosphere on the various servers, and thus the game’s ability to attract and above all retain new players. The end result might be a slow, gradual decline, with player numbers still remaining much higher than any other game for years to come, simply by being the largest, best-known and most “generic and all-purpose” mmorpg around.
Then, when after years a real competitor appears, WoW could very well implode in a relatively short time.

The fate of EQ & EQ II might provide a rough parallel. These two games together had a total of nearly 800,000 accounts between them in early 2005 (according to mmorpgchart). Combined totals had shrunk to about 300,000 in early 2006. When the new King comes – and it will come, sooner or later, even if, as I think, it takes till next decade – WoW’s decline could very well be as fast and as thorough.
 

I'm not sure I can agree with Alex on this one. Conan to me looks like it has a decent chance of making an impact on the market assuming that the development team creates the game with little bugs. I agree that Lord of the Rings and WAR have the fan base already in place, but I also see that Conan is claiming to have a great deal of content that hasn't been done before; such as Mounted Combat, multi point targeting for melee and ranged combat, a PVP system that allows guilds to build and defend castles that they help to create, and Seige Engines to use in PVP. It is too soon to see how smoothly the software will run, but I am looking forward to giving this game a test run as I am sure there are many people out there that are tired of the old press 1 key press 3 key press 5 key repeat style of combat. I'm also looking forward to a MMO having the M rating as realism for me is key.
 

Alex, with all due respect, I suggest you check out the archetype and class listing for age of conan at www.ageofconan.com because there are 10 different magic based classes; 6 priest and 4 mage. Also, priests from what I have read in the Archetype list will not only be healers, but will also be able to dish out damage, making that class probably more attractive to people who are tired of being the "healbot". I especially like the Stormcaller priest. Many of the new MMORPGS that will be released in 2007 will flop no doubt, I just think it is a little presumptuous to make that claim without first reviewing what the game is claiming to offer. As far as Shadowbane and Lineage II offering Castles and Siege combat, were the castles able to be controlled by guilds, or were they just elements of an instance? One of the complaints that many-especially older- WoW players have is that with games like Everquest, they were allowed to own their own home which added a nice personal touch to the game. AOC while not going as far as Everquest, seemed to learn from games like City of Heros, that many people like to participate in Guild activities other than instances,such as building a base and defending it. I am not saying AOC is going to be a slam dunk but I will say that if it lives up to the initial claims, I will be one of the many people cleaving helms and lopping heads in the bloody world that Robert E Howard wrote so well.
 

Interesting and well-informed theories, certainly. I feel I have to add a few comments of my own, however.

When most people think of MMORPGs, they seem to take into account only the fantasy genre. This is incorrect, I believe. For a while there, Star Wars Galaxies had a pretty hefty following prior to their overhauling of the game and eventual...decline.

But that really isn't so much the point. WoW did much better than SWG even in the SoE release's good days. I think that games that should be taken into consideration are both the DC and Marvel titles.

While not as successful as WoW, City of Heroes is a huge success. They're a little better at staying on top of the content (though not much and they don't seem to plan ahead much when it comes to the players' voracious apetite for new content).

Given the large DC and Marvel fanbases, though, I predict that one or both of these games will stampede onto the market especially given their accessibility what with their simultaneous releases on the PS3 and XBox360 console systems respectively. And with all of the movies and cartoons that have come out featuring the characters from these two major comic book juggernauts, I really wouldn't underestimate these titles as major contenders in the MMORPG market. Why contend with another MMO if you don't have to, after all?

You're always going to have the fans that want a simpler, more accessible game like WoW, but for the veteran MMO gamer...WoW just doesn't cut it for most.

Most of us that cut our teeth on Ultima Online and Everquest (and I think I speak for the vets) are wanting more from their games. Think SWG pre-CU. I've always felt that having classes and levels was a bit dumbed down. Maybe it's just me.

The fact remains that a lot of people get tired of elves, dwarves and the rest of the stock fantasy concepts and go off looking for any change of pace.
 

I played FFXI for 3 years...it got stale...I think that graphics and fresh ideas are whats going to pull people away from the same old...Its hard to compare next Gen. games with old ones is it not?
 

in my opinion chronicles of spellborn can beat WOW.but this game is still beta version and soon will be ready to play. let us see who is better


waffen-ss fuhrer