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Thursday, January 17, 2008
Looking beyond 2008
John Maynard Keynes, an economist, countered some argument on some expected development in the long run with the words "in the long run, we are all dead". That is certainly true, but shouldn't be used as excuse to only look ahead for a very short period. In his own slightly crazy and rambling way Jeff Freeman writes an excellent parody on the current frequently heard assumption that WoW is the end of MMORPG development. Some people assume that WoW lifted the barrier of entry into the MMORPG market so high that nobody will be able to overcome it. People decry the subscription model as dead, and suggest we should head for the hills of cheap free-to-play virtual worlds. Can that be the future of MMORPGs?
I don't think so. The lure of big profits will be too great. Yes, making another World of Warcraft might cost $50 to $100 million of investment, but what is that compared with WoW's current $500 million of annual profit? There aren't all that many projects with a possible annual payout of five to ten times the investemnt. Just like Jaws or Titanic didn't kill the film industry, World of Warcraft won't kill the MMORPG industry, just the opposite. We will see lots of failures like Vanguard on the way, from people thinking that because all subscription based MMORPG cost about the same monthly fee they can make a game with a fraction of the budget that WoW had and still rake in millions. Some games, like LotRO will be small successes, making a decent profit compared with their investment cost. But sooner or later we will see another big budget MMORPG with millions of subscribers. The idea that one company, Blizzard, could hold the financial and skill monopoly on making successful MMORPGs forever is laughable. Half the people who made WoW are already working for other companies.
When you hear people telling you that another blockbuster MMORPG is impossible, have a look at their background. Maybe they already produced games that weren't quite as successful, and need a good excuse to explain why they couldn't succeed. Or they have some free-to-play game, in-game advertising model or microtransaction platform for sale, and try to distract your attention from the fact that none of these business models has ever made that much money as the monthly subscription fee model. They'll tell you about the 11 million "residents" of Second Life, failing to mention that the peak concurrent user number is 55,000, or 1/200th of the number of residents. You'll make more money showing your ad in the commercial break of a TV emission of Plan 9 from Outer Space (supposedly the worst film ever) than from putting it up in Second Life!
Meanwhile Brenden from Another There finds this gem of current bestsellers at Gamestop.com, showing 7 out of 8 games in the list being MMORPGs with a monthly subscription fee. Many companies have MMORPGs that are selling well enough to make a good profit, so they are gaining both expertise and money, which they might want to invest one day in a bigger game. Even if you remove World of Warcraft from the equation, there are currently more MMORPG players than ever, and MMORPGs are one of the major contributors that keep PC gaming alive against the competition of console gaming. And while we don't know whether Warhammer Online will really be released in 2008, nobody really expects that game to flop.
World of Warcraft might be called the first blockbuster MMORPG, but it certainly won't be the last one.
- posted by Tobold @ 10:51 AM Permanent Link
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I think there will be lots of successful MMOs in the future, but they will be EQ successful not WoW successful.
Blizzard saw mainstream MMO ( EQ) and made it close enough to as good as its gonna get for a few generations ( game generations, not human), that you cant really compete with it.
If you make a similar but better game, it can only be marginally better. You better have a damn good IP to back that up or there isnt motivation to move from WoW to another game almost just like WoW. Of course it would take a good chunk of WoWs market share, but it would be capped at half ( but most likely would never hit that point).
If you make a "different" game, improvements or not, you are deviating from the mainstream and will only find a niche market ( I think AoC, PotBS, WAR, etc will fall into this category). They will be successful, but not to the same degree that WoW is.
Of course its silly to think WoW will be around forever. Blizzard is already working on a next generation MMO. It may or may not have the same success of WoW. When WoW is no longer the major contender, then of course others will have the opportunity to fill thier shoes. I think WoW will die at the point where the graphics become dated to the majority of players, and there is an equally good alternative available with more modern graphics. Basically, when its no longer feasible to update the WoW engine. Every update to an engine will lose the lowest end PC users.
Blizzard saw mainstream MMO ( EQ) and made it close enough to as good as its gonna get for a few generations ( game generations, not human), that you cant really compete with it.
If you make a similar but better game, it can only be marginally better. You better have a damn good IP to back that up or there isnt motivation to move from WoW to another game almost just like WoW. Of course it would take a good chunk of WoWs market share, but it would be capped at half ( but most likely would never hit that point).
If you make a "different" game, improvements or not, you are deviating from the mainstream and will only find a niche market ( I think AoC, PotBS, WAR, etc will fall into this category). They will be successful, but not to the same degree that WoW is.
Of course its silly to think WoW will be around forever. Blizzard is already working on a next generation MMO. It may or may not have the same success of WoW. When WoW is no longer the major contender, then of course others will have the opportunity to fill thier shoes. I think WoW will die at the point where the graphics become dated to the majority of players, and there is an equally good alternative available with more modern graphics. Basically, when its no longer feasible to update the WoW engine. Every update to an engine will lose the lowest end PC users.
# posted by 
: 17/1/08 15:43
: 17/1/08 15:43
I've said before wow is in the process of doing to the game industry what Jaws, and Star Wars did to the film industry.
Big Business has seen how much money can be tapped and now they'll buy up every game company they can lock stock and barrell and try to standardize it and create thier own successes. There will be good and bad things about this.
My biggest fear is it will kill innovation. The game industry is already incredibly hard to break into. entry level developers get paid nothing and are expected to work long hours and suffer through the agonizingly boring jobs because there are 20 people that want to design games for every job that actually exists. Giving the employer incredible power over them. If there are less game companies then that pressure may become worse and drive a lot of talented people to more lucrative careers
Big Business has seen how much money can be tapped and now they'll buy up every game company they can lock stock and barrell and try to standardize it and create thier own successes. There will be good and bad things about this.
My biggest fear is it will kill innovation. The game industry is already incredibly hard to break into. entry level developers get paid nothing and are expected to work long hours and suffer through the agonizingly boring jobs because there are 20 people that want to design games for every job that actually exists. Giving the employer incredible power over them. If there are less game companies then that pressure may become worse and drive a lot of talented people to more lucrative careers
The problem I see:
Every game that is serously out to beat WoW will be much more expensive than WoW was, because to beat WoW it needs all the features WoW had at Release plus all features it gained later on.
And this problem will get bigger. If we get a WoW2 in some sort, it will be more expensive than WoW. And every game that wants to beat WoW2 has to be even more expensive to cover all the features it has then. Plus, to beat a game you have to be better, not equally good.
It may be possible to beat WoW, but how long will it be possible to beat the actual Nr. 1 if developing a new game will cost ten time as much?
Every game that is serously out to beat WoW will be much more expensive than WoW was, because to beat WoW it needs all the features WoW had at Release plus all features it gained later on.
And this problem will get bigger. If we get a WoW2 in some sort, it will be more expensive than WoW. And every game that wants to beat WoW2 has to be even more expensive to cover all the features it has then. Plus, to beat a game you have to be better, not equally good.
It may be possible to beat WoW, but how long will it be possible to beat the actual Nr. 1 if developing a new game will cost ten time as much?
# posted by : 17/1/08 18:07
: 17/1/08 18:07
I disagree. I think any game as good as wow was at launch. That has a UI as easy and is as accessible and will play on most computers will do fine.
Not a single company I can think of has thrown an MMO out there with all of those specifications since wow launched.
Theres a lot of people that would happily jump ship if the game as as good as WOW was at launch. But it has to be that good in all aspects.
Not a single company I can think of has thrown an MMO out there with all of those specifications since wow launched.
Theres a lot of people that would happily jump ship if the game as as good as WOW was at launch. But it has to be that good in all aspects.
Here are a few key items that a next-gen WoW "equal or better" MMO will have:
-Graphics, 2008 is a long way from 2004. Graphics have gotton much better. A PSP displays graphics very close to that of WoW...well it comes close. Has anyone seen Crysis? Bioshock? Freakin Mass Effect(xbox 360)....well these games are damn near close to cgi quality(like if you are squniting, or drunk, you might get fooled). The next gen MMO should really have graphics close to these games. War looks good so far...not that good.
-Casual! Even more so then WoW. Think Nintendo Wii. MMO where you hit your enemies with your Wii controller. In all serious bznezz....The next gen mmo should make getting, finding and maintaining a group run, or raid much easier. Like if stinky pete wants to go to sleep then the queue would just feed another nub into your raid.
-Mobil compatibility. In game management from text messeges at 15 cents per messege. Say hi to stinky pete from a plane.
-Stinky Pete...he stinks.
-Graphics, 2008 is a long way from 2004. Graphics have gotton much better. A PSP displays graphics very close to that of WoW...well it comes close. Has anyone seen Crysis? Bioshock? Freakin Mass Effect(xbox 360)....well these games are damn near close to cgi quality(like if you are squniting, or drunk, you might get fooled). The next gen MMO should really have graphics close to these games. War looks good so far...not that good.
-Casual! Even more so then WoW. Think Nintendo Wii. MMO where you hit your enemies with your Wii controller. In all serious bznezz....The next gen mmo should make getting, finding and maintaining a group run, or raid much easier. Like if stinky pete wants to go to sleep then the queue would just feed another nub into your raid.
-Mobil compatibility. In game management from text messeges at 15 cents per messege. Say hi to stinky pete from a plane.
-Stinky Pete...he stinks.
Sometimes, after observing a bit of human behavior, it is quite easy to understand how panic helped cause the US depression. Usually it's people who have met failure, then the gullible are snagged in, bandwagoners next, then the shit hits the fan. Pardon my French.
I agree with you, if that's not obvious yet.
It always surprises me how a lot of the weaker people (those mentioned above) seem to get into positions that seem like they would require some motivation and optimism. Yet they're so willing to lay down and die.
It makes me wonder if anyone actually ever says "WoW is the last MMO" or if a little part of everyone collectively thinks it (or dreads it). It would be rather naive and almost unimaginable that someone would say that.
I agree with you, if that's not obvious yet.
It always surprises me how a lot of the weaker people (those mentioned above) seem to get into positions that seem like they would require some motivation and optimism. Yet they're so willing to lay down and die.
It makes me wonder if anyone actually ever says "WoW is the last MMO" or if a little part of everyone collectively thinks it (or dreads it). It would be rather naive and almost unimaginable that someone would say that.
WoW is NOT a subscription-only game! The vast majority of their clients are in Asia, and those folks are not paying a monthly subscription...
Tobold my friend, you need to factor that into your thoughts about WoW, subscriptions, and calling out folks who do not have subscription games.
There are multiple games in Asia who have millions of users (sometimes simultaneous) and they are not subscription games.
I don't say this to discredit your points about WoW and what Blizzard has accomplished, but it's important to recognize that the bulk of WoW players are in Asia, and they are not subscription customers -- which seriously impacts the math (and this is no secret, but people keep skipping on this fact).
Tobold my friend, you need to factor that into your thoughts about WoW, subscriptions, and calling out folks who do not have subscription games.
There are multiple games in Asia who have millions of users (sometimes simultaneous) and they are not subscription games.
I don't say this to discredit your points about WoW and what Blizzard has accomplished, but it's important to recognize that the bulk of WoW players are in Asia, and they are not subscription customers -- which seriously impacts the math (and this is no secret, but people keep skipping on this fact).
I think the fact about subscriptions get ignored because a few million us and EU subscribers eclipse the income of the entire Asian base at least in WOW.
Just go look at THE9's financial reports. And pay attention to the fact that thier numbers include guildwars and other game sales ast well.
THe number of asian players is impressive but the income per month is a few dollars per subscriber.
Not an insignificant amount of money but no where near what the western world is generating with a lot less players
Just go look at THE9's financial reports. And pay attention to the fact that thier numbers include guildwars and other game sales ast well.
THe number of asian players is impressive but the income per month is a few dollars per subscriber.
Not an insignificant amount of money but no where near what the western world is generating with a lot less players
Well stated, and fully within the context. A few dollars per user/month is pretty good in Asia (considering economic differences, etc.) so the question of that particular revenue model in the West is "Will having more customers who give me less dollars each (free/transaction model) result in a higher overall return than a smaller population on subscription with more margin (profit) per user?"
I think both are paths to profit, so it's up to the numbers guys to tell the decision makers at each company which is more viable. If your game is not projected to get a good number of subs, more customers at a smaller margin might be better.. if you are going to score a million, subs are pretty nice!
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I think both are paths to profit, so it's up to the numbers guys to tell the decision makers at each company which is more viable. If your game is not projected to get a good number of subs, more customers at a smaller margin might be better.. if you are going to score a million, subs are pretty nice!
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