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Thursday, January 03, 2008
WotLK against WAR
This was supposed to be my "top 10 games of 2008" predictions post, until I realized that there will only be 2 top games in 2008, and one of them is an expansion. Yes, I believe only the Wrath of the Lich King (WotLK) expansion of World of Warcraft and EA Mythics Warhammer Online Age of Reckoning (WAR) will make a major splash in 2008. Of course there will be other games, like Pirates of the Burning Sea or Age of Conan, but their success will be limited. They'll all perform in the range between what Vanguard and Lord of the Rings Online did in 2007, that is between a total flop and "nice, but soon forgotten" with a quarter of a million subscribers max. Only WotLK and WAR will sell more than a million copies each. So lets have a look at these two big ones.
Wrath of the Lich King is a curious beast: On the one hand it is a no-brainer. Whatever quality level it has, it will sell 10+ million copies world wide. Yes, that is more than the current number of subscribers of WoW, but WoW is estimated to have a churn rate of up to 5% per month, so there are millions of players that could potentially come back for the new content. It is possible that WotLK will cause the total number of subscribers to break the 10 million line, but that depends a bit on timing, and how much later China gets the expansion than the western world does. On the other hand Wrath of the Lich King is critically important for Blizzard and WoW. The big risk here is extrapolation: Customers are going to see the first and second expansion, and those two will shape the expectations for the future expansions. If WotLK has only the features already announced, the extrapolation looks basically like this: "Every WoW expansion adds 10 new levels to the top of the game, resets the raid progress of everyone, and then provides a new set of raid dungeons for the top players". This image will be attractive to some people, but not to millions and millions of them. An increasing number of people will realize that they just bought yet another expansion, leveled yet another 10 levels in a few weeks, and got stuck in yet another end game not tailored towards *their* needs for another year. And then it will be really, really difficult to sell these people a third expansion. If Blizzard wants to create a WotLK expansion that will encourage most players to buy the next expansion as well, they will have to do better. They will need to make the end game more accessible to the average player, especially the raiding end game. And they will need to add more content targeted towards the average player, like player housing, new races, new classes beyond one hero class per year, and new content for all levels, not just the top.
Of course one man's risk is another man's chance, and that is where Warhammer Online Age of Reckoning comes in. WAR enjoys a clear marketing superiority over WotLK. Blizzard is making interesting advertising about WoW in general, including TV ads with Captain Kirk and Mr. T, but is remarkably silent about their next expansion. Since the original announcement half a year ago, there have only been a few screen shots released, and no new information. Meanwhile WAR is producing hype faster than they are progressing with the game. There are monthly newsletters, video podcasts, developers blogs, and constant announcements of major changes in response to beta player feedback. I have no idea how good WAR is really going to be. But I do believe it will sell over a million copies just based on everybody's expectation that WAR is the next big thing.
A lot will depend on timing. WAR could do extremely well if it comes out either at least a month before WotLK or at least 3 months after it. It will have a much harder time if it comes out at the same time as WotLK or shortly after it. That makes you wonder how much of this "we'll release it when it's ready" talk from both sides is just strategic maneuvering, with neither company willing to announce a release date too early and give the other company a chance to place their release better. The most likely outcome of this is that both games end up being released only in the second half of 2008. While Blizzard could seriously spit in EA Mythic's soup by holding out and releasing WotLK only in Q4 2008, they will hurt themselves as well, because it makes their "one expansion per year" promise look increasingly hollow. And the people suffering the most from "release date poker" are the players.
I don't expect WAR to be better than WoW, but it doesn't have to be. Customers are going to make somewhat unfair comparisons like "WotLK offers 1 new class, WAR offers 24 new classes", or "WotLK offers 1 new battleground, WAR offers a completely new PvP system". This is exactly where WotLK being more of the same will hurt WoW. Many bored WoW or ex-WoW players will at least give WAR a chance. That will not "kill" WoW, but it will be noticeable in WoW's earnings and profits. Which might actually be a good thing. Success makes complacent, maybe once a serious competitor makes itself noticeable Blizzard will steer away from that "more of the same" formula.
- posted by Tobold @ 8:12 AM Permanent Link
Comments:
If WotLK has only the features already announced, the extrapolation looks basically like this: "Every WoW expansion adds 10 new levels to the top of the game, resets the raid progress of everyone, and then provides a new set of raid dungeons for the top players". This image will be attractive to some people, but not to millions and millions of them. An increasing number of people will realize that they just bought yet another expansion, leveled yet another 10 levels in a few weeks, and got stuck in yet another end game not tailored towards *their* needs for another year. And then it will be really, really difficult to sell these people a third expansion. If Blizzard wants to create a WotLK expansion that will encourage most players to buy the next expansion as well, they will have to do better. They will need to make the end game more accessible to the average player, especially the raiding end game. And they will need to add more content targeted towards the average player, like player housing, new races, new classes beyond one hero class per year, and new content for all levels, not just the top.
I agree 100 hundred percent with everything you wrote.
The last truly great mmorpg expansion was Ruins of Kunark, and it's looking like we'll never see another like that again.
/sigh
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If WotLK has only the features already announced, the extrapolation looks basically like this: "Every WoW expansion adds 10 new levels to the top of the game, resets the raid progress of everyone, and then provides a new set of raid dungeons for the top players". This image will be attractive to some people, but not to millions and millions of them. An increasing number of people will realize that they just bought yet another expansion, leveled yet another 10 levels in a few weeks, and got stuck in yet another end game not tailored towards *their* needs for another year. And then it will be really, really difficult to sell these people a third expansion. If Blizzard wants to create a WotLK expansion that will encourage most players to buy the next expansion as well, they will have to do better. They will need to make the end game more accessible to the average player, especially the raiding end game. And they will need to add more content targeted towards the average player, like player housing, new races, new classes beyond one hero class per year, and new content for all levels, not just the top.
I agree 100 hundred percent with everything you wrote.
The last truly great mmorpg expansion was Ruins of Kunark, and it's looking like we'll never see another like that again.
/sigh
# posted by 
: 3/1/08 10:47
: 3/1/08 10:47
Absolutely agree on this. This year was pretty disappointing considering the best to come out from the MMO market are 2 major expansions, notably Burning crusade and Rise of Kunark. I would love to see WAR making a big challenge to WoW, but maybe i am being optimistic.
BTW, Ruins of Kunark was an EQ1 expansion. It offered a new race and new zones - for all level ranges. There was new content for casual and raider alike.
The good old days.
The good old days.
# posted by : 3/1/08 11:25
: 3/1/08 11:25
BTW, Ruins of Kunark was an EQ1 expansion. It offered a new race and new zones - for all level ranges. There was new content for casual and raider alike.
Yes, Kunark still is the single best expansion ever, but there are some points to consider.
Why Kunark felt that superior is simple. When EQ launched it pretty much was a big experiment. What will happen? How will players use the game? Pretty fast the game showed it's first flaws, with grinding being one of them.
When Kunark launched a very tiny minority of players was max level, so it made sense to push new mid level content. Back than you were pretty much forced into very few grinding spots, those spots being very contested. Kunark just offered more options to decrease the competition for the grind - with introducing new ones: Karnors castle anyone?
As for the argument with "more of the same" being so bad. Well look at media in general. You'll see sequels everywhere: movies, books, games. Maybe less innovation is more popular, than risky new ones? With WoW pretty much being the whole market own its own, i do not see any single reason for Blizzard to change the formula. The game isn't bad, the game isn't bleeding numbers like its competitors. You saw and will see "new formulas" and you see them bombing. Why do many only consider WAR being the only worthy WoW competitor? Because it's so different, or because its the same formula?
Yes, Kunark still is the single best expansion ever, but there are some points to consider.
Why Kunark felt that superior is simple. When EQ launched it pretty much was a big experiment. What will happen? How will players use the game? Pretty fast the game showed it's first flaws, with grinding being one of them.
When Kunark launched a very tiny minority of players was max level, so it made sense to push new mid level content. Back than you were pretty much forced into very few grinding spots, those spots being very contested. Kunark just offered more options to decrease the competition for the grind - with introducing new ones: Karnors castle anyone?
As for the argument with "more of the same" being so bad. Well look at media in general. You'll see sequels everywhere: movies, books, games. Maybe less innovation is more popular, than risky new ones? With WoW pretty much being the whole market own its own, i do not see any single reason for Blizzard to change the formula. The game isn't bad, the game isn't bleeding numbers like its competitors. You saw and will see "new formulas" and you see them bombing. Why do many only consider WAR being the only worthy WoW competitor? Because it's so different, or because its the same formula?
# posted by : 3/1/08 12:14
: 3/1/08 12:14
Can Tobold do a poll?
If both WotLK and WAR were released on the same day, which would you pick?
Assuming that both got decent reviews from beta testers?
I'd pick WAR, myself, and I don't even care for PVP.
If both WotLK and WAR were released on the same day, which would you pick?
Assuming that both got decent reviews from beta testers?
I'd pick WAR, myself, and I don't even care for PVP.
# posted by : 3/1/08 12:20
: 3/1/08 12:20
Frankly, I believe WAR will be a flop, simply because the hype and expectations are so high that no matter its intrinsic qualities, it won't live up to these. It could be the best MMO in the world, it will still not meet expectations people project on it.
# posted by : 3/1/08 12:25
: 3/1/08 12:25
IMO, WoW is getting stale. Its not necessarily losing its overall fun factor for me...but there will come a point where I will want something new. I have a feeling there are quite a few people out there like me, as well.
I'm really hoping Warhammer does well and gives WoW a run for its money, because that will likely force Blizzard into changing things up a bit.
I'm really hoping Warhammer does well and gives WoW a run for its money, because that will likely force Blizzard into changing things up a bit.
gwaendar, that has been said about almost every MMO before it launched, especially WoW. No game lives up to people's expectations, but that doesn't mean they won't play it. WoW is the perfect example, being hyped through the roof. The key was the fact that WoW had low barriers to entry, so on day one it was a joy to play and people quickly forgot about their expectations. On the flip side, games that barely work on day one, leave people with nothing but a bad taste and the feeling that their expectations were let down.
If WAR launches successfully and offers a great experience for the first month, expectations will be forgotten and the left-behind whining forum warriors (who probably didn't even bother to buy the game) will be the only one's left arguing expectations.
If WAR launches successfully and offers a great experience for the first month, expectations will be forgotten and the left-behind whining forum warriors (who probably didn't even bother to buy the game) will be the only one's left arguing expectations.
I think a lot of people miss the point on adding low to midlevel content. There are a lot of gamers like myself that don't view leveling an alt of a different class through the same old quests as a "new" experience.
If they revamped the leveling zones most people would make an alt and go back through them. It is really a winning situation for everyone because then you get new players at least for a litle while coming into busy lowby zones.
Wow is good but old and feeling like that set of sneakers with 3 holes in it you should have thrown away a year ago. Hopefully they'll do something new and exciting with WOTLK but doubtful. WAR wont have to be as good as wow to seriously hurt it. It just has to pull all the PVP'rs out. If that happened in the current environment all the mid to low pop servers would become miserable places to play.
If they revamped the leveling zones most people would make an alt and go back through them. It is really a winning situation for everyone because then you get new players at least for a litle while coming into busy lowby zones.
Wow is good but old and feeling like that set of sneakers with 3 holes in it you should have thrown away a year ago. Hopefully they'll do something new and exciting with WOTLK but doubtful. WAR wont have to be as good as wow to seriously hurt it. It just has to pull all the PVP'rs out. If that happened in the current environment all the mid to low pop servers would become miserable places to play.
I am also afraid of what might happen if WoW really stresses raiding again with this next expansion. It feels like EQ1 happening all over again.
I am encouraged by the last patch though, hopefully it is a sign that they understand the importance of encouraging non-raiders/hardcore PvP to stay by rolling an alt.
I was sad to see the new races added in BC not get a complete new path to 60. I would like to see either a complete new path to 60 or enough quests added to every zone so it seems like there is one.
I am encouraged by the last patch though, hopefully it is a sign that they understand the importance of encouraging non-raiders/hardcore PvP to stay by rolling an alt.
I was sad to see the new races added in BC not get a complete new path to 60. I would like to see either a complete new path to 60 or enough quests added to every zone so it seems like there is one.
# posted by : 3/1/08 16:57
: 3/1/08 16:57
PS.
Something I see coming up again and again is how much Blizzard caters to raiders and that's the downfall. And I will say - coming from EQ - that I do not *see* it. The amount of what I consider casual content has been increasingly steadily since the release of TBC, with the release of daily quests, the new Dustwallow Marsh zone, a new 5 man coming out in the next patch, etc.
Of course, my definition of casual content is skewed by my own bias - I don't consider the fact that some daily quests need a 5 man group to unlock them makes them not-casual.
Although Blizzard should fix the Netherwing quest line so that people can kill the last mob in the pre-quest line. /pet peeve
Something I see coming up again and again is how much Blizzard caters to raiders and that's the downfall. And I will say - coming from EQ - that I do not *see* it. The amount of what I consider casual content has been increasingly steadily since the release of TBC, with the release of daily quests, the new Dustwallow Marsh zone, a new 5 man coming out in the next patch, etc.
Of course, my definition of casual content is skewed by my own bias - I don't consider the fact that some daily quests need a 5 man group to unlock them makes them not-casual.
Although Blizzard should fix the Netherwing quest line so that people can kill the last mob in the pre-quest line. /pet peeve
# posted by : 3/1/08 17:36
: 3/1/08 17:36
WAR will never be as popular as WoW, nor will it ever decimate their numbers to the point at which game maintenance becomes financially unsustainable.
That said, there are plenty of disgruntled WoW gamers just waiting to be scooped up by another great MMORPG and I believe WAR will be that game.
Blizzard's current expansion model will wear thin very quickly if they continue to add 10 new levels and negate all the hours you spent getting your current raiding gear. You'll have the hardcore PvEers who just gobble that stuff up, but WoW became successful because it appealed to the everyman (and woman). The majority of their playerbase don't have the kind of time or energy to keep up with the raiding rat race.
That said, there are plenty of disgruntled WoW gamers just waiting to be scooped up by another great MMORPG and I believe WAR will be that game.
Blizzard's current expansion model will wear thin very quickly if they continue to add 10 new levels and negate all the hours you spent getting your current raiding gear. You'll have the hardcore PvEers who just gobble that stuff up, but WoW became successful because it appealed to the everyman (and woman). The majority of their playerbase don't have the kind of time or energy to keep up with the raiding rat race.
# posted by : 3/1/08 20:20
: 3/1/08 20:20
I believe WAR might FLOP becuase the game looks like its gunna needa damn good comp to play it while wow plays fine on any decent computer also wars pvp system might flop when you try all these new things theres bot gurantee
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# posted by : 4/9/08 23:41
: 4/9/08 23:41<< Home
