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Thursday, May 15, 2008
Vivendi anticipates Wrath of the Lich King for second half of 2008
Vivendi, parent company of Blizzard, sent out a press release yesterday in which they say about World of Warcraft: "the second expansion set is anticipated to be released in the second half of 2008". Note that this isn't a guarantee, they were careful to insert the weasel word "anticipate" into the statement. Because if lets say WotLK was delayed half a year beyond that date, it could possibly affect the share price of Vivendi. And if they had promised a fixed date for the expansion, they would be vulnerable to lawsuits from angry investors.
Nevertheless of course Vivendi "anticipating" a second half 2008 release has a lot more weight than me anticipating the same time frame (which I did, repeatedly). In other news the same press release announced World of Warcraft's subscriber number to be 10.7 million now, having added 0.7 million subscribers in the first quarter of 2008. Vivendi Games revenues for the first quarter was $221 million, of which Blizzard made $192 million (of which $99 million were profit before taxes). Note that 4 quarters of $192 million do not $1 billion make. In fact Vivendi explains that their revenues first quarter 2008 was 24% lower than in 2007, because they did release the Burning Crusade last year, and no expansion yet this year. Which pretty much explains why Vivendi would very much like Wrath of the Lich King to come out before christmas: the sales would then mostly happen in the year 2008, and the year on year comparison wouldn't look so bad. Releasing a WoW expansion is like printing money: the sales of WotLK in the first month in the US and Europe alone will bring in as much revenue as the complete first quarter 2008. And as secondary effect the resubscriptions caused by the expansion will lift monthly revenue for several months. So this is serious money, and if WotLK slips into 2009 after all, somebody from Blizzard would have some difficult explanation to do. If you think players can be quite rabid when a game is delayed, wait until you see the guy whose annual multi-million dollar bonus depends on that release.
- posted by Tobold @ 12:57 PM Permanent Link
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Fiscal year 2008 for many companies end march 2009 for many public traded companies. So they got 3 months more if they want :)
Fiscal year 2008 for many companies end march 2009 for many public traded companies. So they got 3 months more if they want :)
That's true, but they still announced previously that they would be making one expansion per year so I'm pretty sure that they are doing everything they can to prevent it from slipping into 2009. :)
That's true, but they still announced previously that they would be making one expansion per year so I'm pretty sure that they are doing everything they can to prevent it from slipping into 2009. :)
Even if they can get Wrath out before Dec. 31, 2009, look at the time that's already passed since BC's release in January '07. We're at 16 months and counting. If Wrath is released late in Q4/2008 that gives Blizzard little more than a year to crank out their third XPac...assuming there's going to be another one.
/gasp
Did I just say that out loud? >:)
/gasp
Did I just say that out loud? >:)
The money around WoW, in all aspects, is serious business.
If only I could remember the dudespeak version of that... srs bdnz? bsns? Dang.
If only I could remember the dudespeak version of that... srs bdnz? bsns? Dang.
# posted by 
: 15/5/08 16:42
: 15/5/08 16:42
"...wait until you see the guy whose annual multi-million dollar bonus depends on that release."
The same guy that will get a multi-million dollar payout even if he gets canned for incompetence? Oh, to have the financial security of a CEO! :P
The same guy that will get a multi-million dollar payout even if he gets canned for incompetence? Oh, to have the financial security of a CEO! :P
# posted by : 15/5/08 16:44
: 15/5/08 16:44
I don't understand why the blogosphere is so convinced that Wrath won't happen in 2008 (real world year, not fiscal). The game may not be finished (I've long argued that patch 2.1 was the final patch of the TBC beta), but for it not to be on store shelves for the Holidays? With a major competitor presumably launching in the same time frame? And maybe a single content patch (the pre-expansion one) planned for the stretch before the expansion, which would, if it slipped to 2009, be over seven months?
Blizzard's slow, but they're not stupid. It would take some really really bad show-stopping bugs for them to even consider pushing the expansion out of 2009. I'm less optimistic about September than I was, but I think that making a November release is just about as critical a situation as you can face when you're the market leader.
Blizzard's slow, but they're not stupid. It would take some really really bad show-stopping bugs for them to even consider pushing the expansion out of 2009. I'm less optimistic about September than I was, but I think that making a November release is just about as critical a situation as you can face when you're the market leader.
Speaking of the future, I found the following article to be of interest. It reads a lot like some of your other posts, Tobold:
http://www.massively.com/2008/05/15/ion-08-a-five-year-forecast-for-mmos/
http://www.massively.com/2008/05/15/ion-08-a-five-year-forecast-for-mmos/
# posted by : 15/5/08 17:25
: 15/5/08 17:25
Clearly, expansions every year would be in the best interest of the business, and I would think of the players too. Perhaps the new leadership will expand development resources so they can keep up.
# posted by : 15/5/08 17:34
: 15/5/08 17:34
Oh, and for the guy who thinks Blizzard would be stupid to miss a holiday launch in 2008- that is exactly what they did with the BC expansion. Why would things be any different this time?
# posted by : 15/5/08 17:37
: 15/5/08 17:37
frank pretty much nailed it
Blizzard has never let anything screw with thier finish date. It ships when they think its good enough. Not for the holiday, not to beat someone else out.
now I've witnessed thier very good marketing department put the screws on other games and get them to release early.
Blizzard has never let anything screw with thier finish date. It ships when they think its good enough. Not for the holiday, not to beat someone else out.
now I've witnessed thier very good marketing department put the screws on other games and get them to release early.
Blizzard has never let anything screw with their finish date. It ships when they think its good enough. Not for the holiday, not to beat someone else out.
True in the past, (and one of the major reasons I've always been happy to play Blizzard games) but I think a good few people are wondering if corporate-think at Vivendi/Activision will affect that. We'll see.
True in the past, (and one of the major reasons I've always been happy to play Blizzard games) but I think a good few people are wondering if corporate-think at Vivendi/Activision will affect that. We'll see.
# posted by : 15/5/08 17:58
: 15/5/08 17:58
Fact about Blizzard: no one can tell them what to do or when to release a product. Not even the Ceo of Activision or Vivendi. Blizzard has absolute say what they do and when.
Oh, and for the guy who thinks Blizzard would be stupid to miss a holiday launch in 2008- that is exactly what they did with the BC expansion. Why would things be any different this time?
Agreed. But they DID release the 2.0 “come-to-jesus” patch that energized a lot of people (me included). I imagine they’ll do something similar and possibly have a world event with it. It might buy them a month or two, but expect it to kill Raiding at the same time.
Agreed. But they DID release the 2.0 “come-to-jesus” patch that energized a lot of people (me included). I imagine they’ll do something similar and possibly have a world event with it. It might buy them a month or two, but expect it to kill Raiding at the same time.
I don't think a come to jesus patch will energize people. I'm hearing too many people that are just not excited about WOTLK. patch 2.0 only excited people because they were excited BC was coming. I think this expansion will be a lot more subdued as people won't be expecting any big issues to be fixed.
Is anyone else besides me so terribly bored with WoW right now?
I have a 70 Hunter, 70 Druid and 70 Paladin...and have no incentive to play any of them.
I don't feel at all immersed in anything at this point. Dailies to me are really just a sad abomination. It's like Groundhog's day meets Diablo.
I hope this expansion comes sooner than anticipated, although I doubt it will. And I hope it will be a return to the feeling of immersion that I felt when levellingmy blood elf pally from 1-20ish (before I had to rejoin old content).
I have a 70 Hunter, 70 Druid and 70 Paladin...and have no incentive to play any of them.
I don't feel at all immersed in anything at this point. Dailies to me are really just a sad abomination. It's like Groundhog's day meets Diablo.
I hope this expansion comes sooner than anticipated, although I doubt it will. And I hope it will be a return to the feeling of immersion that I felt when levellingmy blood elf pally from 1-20ish (before I had to rejoin old content).
# posted by : 16/5/08 01:23
: 16/5/08 01:23
Pretty much the situation darkannex.
Here's my take on it, when WoW was about to be released in 2004, the features they pumped the most were presented as an anti-thesis to EQ: It was supposed to be a non-grind and in many ways leveling up it was, such a big improvement.
But soon enough, player demand for content outstripped Blizzard's slow pace at developing content and they fell into the same exact trap as every other MMORPG: They began to stretch the new content.
And sooner or later, content gets stretched so thin, regardless of all the good stuff that came before, players start to feel like their on a big hamster wheel.
Now that all said, it was a great game, but for me at least, that's a past tense statement.
Here's my take on it, when WoW was about to be released in 2004, the features they pumped the most were presented as an anti-thesis to EQ: It was supposed to be a non-grind and in many ways leveling up it was, such a big improvement.
But soon enough, player demand for content outstripped Blizzard's slow pace at developing content and they fell into the same exact trap as every other MMORPG: They began to stretch the new content.
And sooner or later, content gets stretched so thin, regardless of all the good stuff that came before, players start to feel like their on a big hamster wheel.
Now that all said, it was a great game, but for me at least, that's a past tense statement.
# posted by : 16/5/08 02:56
: 16/5/08 02:56
regardless of whether they release late, or whether they release after WAR, AoC, Mythos etc... existing WoW players will still buy it.
i know i will. along with a larger harddrive :P
i know i will. along with a larger harddrive :P
Tobold, I doubt anyone has a bonus in that range. The explaining that would need to be done by the Blizz folks to Vivendi would probably be along the lines of direct cost and opportunity cost. The direct cost is the dollars that the WOLK team will have to spend above and beyond what they budgeted with Vivendi; the opportunity cost I would see being the cost of retasking those resource on another project (i.e. revenue stream) post WOLK. I would also imagine that the bonus structure of a Vivendi exec, although tied into delivery/exceeding stated goals, is not directly tied into release of WOLK.
Wrath will hit the shelves about the time that Warhammer does - if Burning Crusade vs. LoTRO was any indication, expect Wrath a week or two ahead of WAR. Given how they are already shedding accounts in the West, they are going to have to offer new content when Warhammer comes out, or they will be toast.
Of course, the West is no longer where the majority of their customer base is; they're truly growing in the East now instead.
Factor this in with Mythic's annoucement of Oceanic-based server farms, and they'll lose that market too - those poor people have been complaining about the unplayable latency forever. Localized [i]Warhammer[/i] servers will decimate WoW in that market.
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Of course, the West is no longer where the majority of their customer base is; they're truly growing in the East now instead.
Factor this in with Mythic's annoucement of Oceanic-based server farms, and they'll lose that market too - those poor people have been complaining about the unplayable latency forever. Localized [i]Warhammer[/i] servers will decimate WoW in that market.
# posted by : 17/5/08 03:18
: 17/5/08 03:18<< Home
