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Friday, August 01, 2008
WotLK release date
I already mentioned my conviction that the fact that the WotLK beta started in July means that we'll see the Wrath of the Lich King expansion still this year. I didn't expect anyone from Blizzard to confirm that impression, because they have a long tradition of NOT announcing release dates until the last minute. But Mike Morhaime just confirmed a Q4 2008 release by saying that WotLK will be out this year, and not in Q3.
Of course some people regard any current announcement and new feature of WotLK as a reaction to WAR. Warhammer fans are reporting that on Amazon WAR outsells WotLK in preorders by 3:1. But another meter shows that in total WoW makes 63% of all Amazon MMO sales, followed by Guild Wars with 16%, and everything else including LotRO, Age of Conan, and WAR at 5% or less.
I still believe that most current World of Warcraft players will buy Wrath of the Lich King. And a solid number of ex-WoW players will buy WotLK as well, at least to try for a few months before leaving again. *I* will buy WotLK to play for a few months before taking another break, as I don't believe the expansion will hold my attention for as long as Blizzard needs to release the next one. I think the current pre-order numbers aren't really saying much, many WoW fans will just buy the box when it comes out, and not pre-order it three months in advance. In my book Blizzard has a good track record in distribution, for The Burning Crusade you could go into a shop on release day and get a copy in most places. I think Wrath of the Lich King will sell around 5 million copies this year just in the USA and Europe. I don't think WAR will sell 5 million copies this year, and certainly not 15 million copies. The WAR preorders reflect hype and the fear to not get a copy on the first day, not a prediction of WAR ultimately selling better than WotLK.
It is now reasonably safe to say that we will have BOTH Warhammer Online: Age of Reckoning AND Wrath of the Lich King available before christmas 2008. Exciting times ahead, and not so far any more. But WAR vs. WotLK christmas sales will be just a first round in a battle which will still continue for several years. And while I am convinced that Blizzard will win that first round, they still have a lot of work to do to combat the impression that WoW is on the decline while WAR is on the rise. If the first expansion for WAR comes out before the third expansion for WoW, Mythic could well win the next round.
- posted by Tobold @ 11:34 AM Permanent Link
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The "63% of sales" is *all* sales on Amazon - so WoW will naturally be ahead due to the sales of the base game and also TBC over the past four years, compared to pre-orders for WAR.
The 3-to-1 statistic is probably a better indication of the hype.
A Google Fight of "Age of Reckoning" vs "Wrath of the Lich King" shows WotLK ahead 4.54m to 3.75m results.
The 3-to-1 statistic is probably a better indication of the hype.
A Google Fight of "Age of Reckoning" vs "Wrath of the Lich King" shows WotLK ahead 4.54m to 3.75m results.
I believe that 3 to 1 figure is for the WAR Collector's Edition only. Still waiting on the normal preorder for WAR.
I rather enjoyed the part that Guild Wars is 16% of sales (coming in second)...
hehe
I am so glad to be back in that game...
MMO's are starting to give me a headache!
hehe
I am so glad to be back in that game...
MMO's are starting to give me a headache!
And I will wisely wait for 3 months after War's release and hear what everyone has to say at THAT point before diving into WAR. I did the same with AoC, and I'm glad that I did.
I received an AoC account (and disks) from a friend who was sick of the game after 1 1/2 months, rather than purchasing the game for $49.99. now all I'll have to pay is for game cards. And after a week of playing I'm happy. Its fun so far, but its no WOW.
I received an AoC account (and disks) from a friend who was sick of the game after 1 1/2 months, rather than purchasing the game for $49.99. now all I'll have to pay is for game cards. And after a week of playing I'm happy. Its fun so far, but its no WOW.
# posted by 
: 1/8/08 18:11
: 1/8/08 18:11
I have been a big PvP'er for years and WAR has no interest for me.
It may do decently - it will be big for an MMO, perhaps, but it will not come close to matching WoW: WotLK.
The massive new continent, quests, achievements, PvP zone, new battlegrounds, 10 man raids all the way to Arthas... their is truely something for everyone.
It may do decently - it will be big for an MMO, perhaps, but it will not come close to matching WoW: WotLK.
The massive new continent, quests, achievements, PvP zone, new battlegrounds, 10 man raids all the way to Arthas... their is truely something for everyone.
For TBC, I pre-ordered the game, then changed my mind and stood in line for an hour before the midnight opening/sale at a local GameStop. I agree that a lot of people will not bother with pre-orders for WotLK.
Maybe it's just me, but I can't get excited about WAR. Vanguard and AoC had some clear attributes to distinguish them from WOW, but I don't see that with WAR: all I've seen is a game that seems to be WOW with slightly more polygons and PvP, but weaker class design and PvE. What is it about the game that's getting people so excited?
(Note - not a troll post - I really don't get it and would like to know).
(Note - not a troll post - I really don't get it and would like to know).
@sven:
I think a lot of people are excited about Warhammer for just the reasons you are not. People like WoW so much that the prospect of getting something that's a lot like WoW but made by someone else is still enticing.
If you're the biggest pizza fan in the world, you'll be excited when a California Pizza Kitchen (disclosure notice: I love CPK) opens up in your area. Even though it's more of the same stuff and might not be as good as your local primo joint, it's still something you love and it's new.
Myself, I'm not excited about Warhammer, but that's just because I fear the product will be inferior after the beta bounces, content cuts, and general shakiness coming out of Mythic.
Just trying to explain why a lot of people would be thrilled.
I think a lot of people are excited about Warhammer for just the reasons you are not. People like WoW so much that the prospect of getting something that's a lot like WoW but made by someone else is still enticing.
If you're the biggest pizza fan in the world, you'll be excited when a California Pizza Kitchen (disclosure notice: I love CPK) opens up in your area. Even though it's more of the same stuff and might not be as good as your local primo joint, it's still something you love and it's new.
Myself, I'm not excited about Warhammer, but that's just because I fear the product will be inferior after the beta bounces, content cuts, and general shakiness coming out of Mythic.
Just trying to explain why a lot of people would be thrilled.
# posted by : 1/8/08 19:27
: 1/8/08 19:27
So far... many people have found reasons why SOMEONE might be excited over WAR, but having seen how well Hellgate London, Vanguard, AOC, have all done...
I think alot of MMO players already have WoW characters with hundreds of hours invested in them - and they really have relationships with these characters.
Wrath of the Lich King offers them NEW things to do with these characters... that is very profound.
What does WAR offer to make me go grind more levels?
I think alot of MMO players already have WoW characters with hundreds of hours invested in them - and they really have relationships with these characters.
Wrath of the Lich King offers them NEW things to do with these characters... that is very profound.
What does WAR offer to make me go grind more levels?
Does 4th quarter of 2008 mean that WILL be out in 2008, or does the 4th quarter of the fiscal year for 2008 for Blizzard go into 2009? Know what I mean? I am asking because 4th quarter could mean a post Christmas release depending on the companies definition of the fiscal year.
@Notmercury
Why didn't I speak to you sooner? Just got back from California and I was looking for something decent to eat!
Maybe this just reflects the readership of Tobold's blog, but I notice that nobody has come on to explain why *they* want to play WAR. Is there really so little positive to say?
Why didn't I speak to you sooner? Just got back from California and I was looking for something decent to eat!
Maybe this just reflects the readership of Tobold's blog, but I notice that nobody has come on to explain why *they* want to play WAR. Is there really so little positive to say?
Wrath of the Lich King offers them NEW things to do with these characters... that is very profound.
What NEW things? Perhaps new areas to explore and new levels to achieve, but nothing profoundly NEW. That’s actually my complaint. WoW is a great game, but they have really blown it with the expansions. It’s not that the expansion content (TBC or WoTLK) is bad per se, just…well, not that much different from what already exists in the game.
What does WAR offer to make me go grind more levels?
In light of your previous claim that WoTLK offers NEW things, I find this question highly ironic. How much more does WoTLK offer to me besides grinding out more levels or another tedious gear progression? I’ll buy WoTLK. I’ll level one, maybe two toons to 80. Then what? I’m sorry, but I’m not enduring another reputation or gear grind in the WoW end-game.
Maybe this just reflects the readership of Tobold's blog, but I notice that nobody has come on to explain why *they* want to play WAR. Is there really so little positive to say?
I think this topic has been covered ad nauseum actually. But… for me at least, I am excited for an end-game that includes more meaningful PvP objectives than what WoW offers in Battlegrounds and Arenas. However, even if the end-game PvP sucks, I still think it will be entertaining to play simply for the variety of new classes, abilities, cities, races and just generally a new world to explore.
What NEW things? Perhaps new areas to explore and new levels to achieve, but nothing profoundly NEW. That’s actually my complaint. WoW is a great game, but they have really blown it with the expansions. It’s not that the expansion content (TBC or WoTLK) is bad per se, just…well, not that much different from what already exists in the game.
What does WAR offer to make me go grind more levels?
In light of your previous claim that WoTLK offers NEW things, I find this question highly ironic. How much more does WoTLK offer to me besides grinding out more levels or another tedious gear progression? I’ll buy WoTLK. I’ll level one, maybe two toons to 80. Then what? I’m sorry, but I’m not enduring another reputation or gear grind in the WoW end-game.
Maybe this just reflects the readership of Tobold's blog, but I notice that nobody has come on to explain why *they* want to play WAR. Is there really so little positive to say?
I think this topic has been covered ad nauseum actually. But… for me at least, I am excited for an end-game that includes more meaningful PvP objectives than what WoW offers in Battlegrounds and Arenas. However, even if the end-game PvP sucks, I still think it will be entertaining to play simply for the variety of new classes, abilities, cities, races and just generally a new world to explore.
Massive bunches of new content that that community will devour in 3 months. Or maybe they'll actually have their ducks in a row this time and players will have more to do at once than what TBC launched as.
One PvP zone does not excite me. One single new BG map doesn't really excite me. The one thing that does interest me enough (the Death Knight) isn't selling a $50 box for me personally.
SoS. Same old shit. That's what WoTLK will be, and I've been on that merry-go-round twice. And it's already boring.
One PvP zone does not excite me. One single new BG map doesn't really excite me. The one thing that does interest me enough (the Death Knight) isn't selling a $50 box for me personally.
SoS. Same old shit. That's what WoTLK will be, and I've been on that merry-go-round twice. And it's already boring.
# posted by : 2/8/08 02:14
: 2/8/08 02:14
@neri:
if WoW would be that boring and SoS to everyone (it seems to you), WoW wouldn't have stable account numbers to present.
So while WoW maybe not fits your playstyle, or not delievers on what you expect from it, doesn't mean that not many many other players are still happy and fine with WoW, and don't see any other Game will bring them away.
Remember: the "Buh" sayers ,are always the loudest in the crowd.
Also people who do complain alot ,are mostly does players who played WoW that many hours, where no MMO could deliever on their needs.
So they get frustrated, and put their hope in new "Lands" ,but once they put in hours and hours in those new "Lands" they will complain again.
The people who did consume the Burning Crusade with little less hours by day, might still be enjoying it quiet a bit.
I'm currently in the Wrath Beta, and it is just a blast. No AoC or anything else interests me in the moment.
And that's just unfinished content, that is getting better day by day.
Yes, i'm a fanboy. But one with a Reason behind it. ;)
if WoW would be that boring and SoS to everyone (it seems to you), WoW wouldn't have stable account numbers to present.
So while WoW maybe not fits your playstyle, or not delievers on what you expect from it, doesn't mean that not many many other players are still happy and fine with WoW, and don't see any other Game will bring them away.
Remember: the "Buh" sayers ,are always the loudest in the crowd.
Also people who do complain alot ,are mostly does players who played WoW that many hours, where no MMO could deliever on their needs.
So they get frustrated, and put their hope in new "Lands" ,but once they put in hours and hours in those new "Lands" they will complain again.
The people who did consume the Burning Crusade with little less hours by day, might still be enjoying it quiet a bit.
I'm currently in the Wrath Beta, and it is just a blast. No AoC or anything else interests me in the moment.
And that's just unfinished content, that is getting better day by day.
Yes, i'm a fanboy. But one with a Reason behind it. ;)
# posted by : 2/8/08 12:32
: 2/8/08 12:32
WAR is WoW that is more PvP oriented, what is not to like?
Helps that I'm in beta so I already know that I'll like the game of course.
Helps that I'm in beta so I already know that I'll like the game of course.
# posted by : 2/8/08 18:41
: 2/8/08 18:41
I intend to purchase and play both games for as long as they are fun. However, if WAR comes out way before WoTLK (looks that way right now) and it turns out to be great, I could probably see myself passing on WoTLK for a while.
Too many unknowns at this point, but I think the longer Wrath waits to release the worse it could be for Blizzard, unless WAR turns out to be crap. :)
Too many unknowns at this point, but I think the longer Wrath waits to release the worse it could be for Blizzard, unless WAR turns out to be crap. :)
# posted by : 4/8/08 21:53
: 4/8/08 21:53
"if WoW would be that boring and SoS to everyone (it seems to you), WoW wouldn't have stable account numbers to present."
How do you know that it does? There is significant anecdotal evidence that, in the original Western markets, WoW is losing customers.
They post overall sub numbers for the game but remember, this includes emerging markets in areas of the world that haven't had 4 years of WoW. Moving into Asia and Russia gained and will gain them a lot of new folks; as will releasing the Latin American language pack and dedicated servers for that population.
Most of the WAR hype is Westerners who are tired of WoW. One of the most significant things, for me, that says Blizzard sees trouble on the horizon is that much of what's coming in LK is simple fixes to things that have annoyed players for years now (managing stacks of tokens, more hunter pet stable slots, and so on). They are trying to make some basic tenets of their game less annoying, and that's an important thing to realize. If they didn't see stiff competition in the marketplace they would not bother, as they have hardly bothered for the last 4 years.
Secondly, if you think they aren't freaked about dropping sub numbers, go take a look at the new "referral" program benefits. I read the list and quite frankly all I see in it is that many of their most hard core customers will simply activate a second account using a game card and a false address, simply to get the huge benefits. Not just the mount, but the buddy can "ding" a character on the referrer's account every other level! And a triple xp modifier? It's an open invitation from Blizzard to multi-account.
And they don't care if you do so - after all it's just another monthly sub in their pocket.
How do you know that it does? There is significant anecdotal evidence that, in the original Western markets, WoW is losing customers.
They post overall sub numbers for the game but remember, this includes emerging markets in areas of the world that haven't had 4 years of WoW. Moving into Asia and Russia gained and will gain them a lot of new folks; as will releasing the Latin American language pack and dedicated servers for that population.
Most of the WAR hype is Westerners who are tired of WoW. One of the most significant things, for me, that says Blizzard sees trouble on the horizon is that much of what's coming in LK is simple fixes to things that have annoyed players for years now (managing stacks of tokens, more hunter pet stable slots, and so on). They are trying to make some basic tenets of their game less annoying, and that's an important thing to realize. If they didn't see stiff competition in the marketplace they would not bother, as they have hardly bothered for the last 4 years.
Secondly, if you think they aren't freaked about dropping sub numbers, go take a look at the new "referral" program benefits. I read the list and quite frankly all I see in it is that many of their most hard core customers will simply activate a second account using a game card and a false address, simply to get the huge benefits. Not just the mount, but the buddy can "ding" a character on the referrer's account every other level! And a triple xp modifier? It's an open invitation from Blizzard to multi-account.
And they don't care if you do so - after all it's just another monthly sub in their pocket.
# posted by : 6/8/08 03:13
: 6/8/08 03:13
WoW isn't, and shouldn't, be worried about any other MMO's... Even some of the bigger ones, that were around for awhile (and good, too), got progressively worse over the years and have dwindled to almost nothing. Meanwhile, WoW treks right along, through the muck of nay-sayers like alot you. Even though, yes, their numbers are going down a little here in the US, overall the numbers are climbing and will be for quite some time. Over 10 million current subs...
The new referral benefits are a cheap (for them) and good (for us) way to get even more subs, whether by multi-holders or legitimate new accounts.
War looks like a great game... But so did AoC, SW: Galaxies, Guild Wars (it is great, but doesn't compare to WoW), and Enter the Matrix (blew chunks)... And where are those now (compared to WoW)???
I will be buying WotLK, and maybe War... but I will wait a few months for War. I've learned my lesson.
The new referral benefits are a cheap (for them) and good (for us) way to get even more subs, whether by multi-holders or legitimate new accounts.
War looks like a great game... But so did AoC, SW: Galaxies, Guild Wars (it is great, but doesn't compare to WoW), and Enter the Matrix (blew chunks)... And where are those now (compared to WoW)???
I will be buying WotLK, and maybe War... but I will wait a few months for War. I've learned my lesson.
# posted by : 30/8/08 07:58
: 30/8/08 07:58
Always remember that the interface of EA has never been great, in any game with mutli buttons. So for this lepord to change its spots will be somewhat of an amusement.
# posted by : 18/9/08 22:42
: 18/9/08 22:42
Here's my take on it and im excited about WAR.
I have a shadow priest and a mage on wow for about 3-4 years now. And I love wow, lost girlfriends because of it. I'm in my 30's. But, I'm hardcore pvp now. Yes I did 25 man raids so much I got fired once.
But, what I don't like about wow is arenas are bogus with welfare epics and the pvp engine for wow is lacking extremely bad.
I want a PVP system that puts my char, which I salved over, into the fight. I wanna be there dropping burning oil, sieging and crap and I know the time is coming.
So for PVE'ers wow is where its at. They have the overall best content and always will. Blizzard is amazing.
But for PVP, wow really misses the mark everytime. They focus on talents, when its thier engine that is lacking.
Thats my take and from the reviews it looks like WAR might be it...But the same was about Tabula and AOC and they were dropouts..
Thats my take...no trolling necessary
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I have a shadow priest and a mage on wow for about 3-4 years now. And I love wow, lost girlfriends because of it. I'm in my 30's. But, I'm hardcore pvp now. Yes I did 25 man raids so much I got fired once.
But, what I don't like about wow is arenas are bogus with welfare epics and the pvp engine for wow is lacking extremely bad.
I want a PVP system that puts my char, which I salved over, into the fight. I wanna be there dropping burning oil, sieging and crap and I know the time is coming.
So for PVE'ers wow is where its at. They have the overall best content and always will. Blizzard is amazing.
But for PVP, wow really misses the mark everytime. They focus on talents, when its thier engine that is lacking.
Thats my take and from the reviews it looks like WAR might be it...But the same was about Tabula and AOC and they were dropouts..
Thats my take...no trolling necessary
# posted by : 6/10/08 15:39
: 6/10/08 15:39<< Home
