Friday, April 15, 2011
Time to peak
Just to annoy Klepsacovic, my third post for the day. :)
Raph Koster once wrote a post on the development of subscription numbers for MMORPGs. He says that all subscription number curves are the same: A growth to peak, then a slow decline.
Thus I'd agree with Ardwulf that the 20% drop of Rift player numbers does not mean, as some doomsayers claimed, a drop to 50% by next month.
Nevertheless I have to observe that while Raph might be right that the shape of the curve is always the same, it is remarkable by how much the timescale changed. It is totally possible that World of Warcraft has peaked by now, and is declining. But WoW sure as hell didn't reach that peak in the first month.
Syncaine is going to blame the "WoW tourists" for that. But isn't the problem rather that the new games are too similar to WoW and other previous games, so they don't hold the attention of players for very long?