Monday, November 21, 2011
SWTOR bullet points
- I am not in the SWTOR beta, but expect to be next weekend with everybody else.
- The SWTOR beta NDA dropped.
- There are lots of SWTOR preview blog posts everywhere.
- The overwhelming majority of these previews is positive.
- SWTOR *is* a "theme park MMORPG", or "WoW with lightsabers", or "guided, quest-based MMORPG", or whatever you want to call that concept.
- Bioware apparently pulled the feat off to implement that tired "theme park" formula well, and add some spice to it with improved story-telling and voice-acting.
- Technically the game is in a good state.
- There are nearly 1 million pre-orders in North America alone.
- It appears very likely that if you add Europe and non-preorder early sales, SWTOR is going to sell well in excess of 2 million copies between release and the end of the year.
- Assuming the reaction of everybody else is similar to those of bloggers, and the sales are really that high, SWTOR will generally be considered "a success".
- Nothing begets success like success.
- Predictions about how many players SWTOR will have 6 months after release are hard to make, but unlike most MMORPGs released since WoW, it is perfectly possible that the success or "network effect" will make SWTOR grow further after initial sales, and not drop off a cliff.
- It would be wise of both developers and commenters to avoid the term "WoW killer", because otherwise they might be surprised to learn that it is actually possible to get a multi-million player MMORPG up and running without actually killing WoW.
- WoW will continue to decline in subscriber numbers at least until the release of the next expansion, if not beyond. 7 million subscribers a year from now is a realistic estimate.
- Some people will add 2 and 2 together, and as usual get 5, interpreting any decline in WoW subscription numbers as being "caused" by SWTOR. Ignoring the fact that an aging WoW is perfectly able to lose subscribers without any help from another game.
- At some point in time SWTOR will start to decline and lose subscriber numbers.
- If by coincidence this decline is anywhere close in time to the release of Titan, we might arrive at the ironic situation of Titan being declared a "SWTOR killer". :)
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I look forward to playing it. If it's different enough from WoW it should keep me busy for a few months.
Oh, let's hope it's a lot better than Dragon Age 2.
Oh, let's hope it's a lot better than Dragon Age 2.
I'm pretty sure 6 month subscriber numbers will probably be between 2 and 3 million. While there could very well be serious longevity issues, I don't think they will be manifest in only 6 months.
It should be, by all accounts, a pretty big success. Like you say though, not really a "wow killer". That term is about as cringe-inducing as a term can be, and it is scary to think we may be hearing it more frequently soon.
It should be, by all accounts, a pretty big success. Like you say though, not really a "wow killer". That term is about as cringe-inducing as a term can be, and it is scary to think we may be hearing it more frequently soon.
A large number of commenters seem to be saying that they plan to play SW:tOR as a single-player, online RPG, largely ignoring the MM part. I'm curious to see how that works out for the game's longevity.
Thirty days to complete it as a single-player RPG before you have to pay some more to carry on. Then pay again every month until you've played through all the storylines that interest you. It's an unusual business model if it turns out that a lot of people really do play it that way.
Thirty days to complete it as a single-player RPG before you have to pay some more to carry on. Then pay again every month until you've played through all the storylines that interest you. It's an unusual business model if it turns out that a lot of people really do play it that way.
I've also been wondering about the same thing as Bhagpuss. I plan to some degree to do the same myself. I'm already part of a guild that will play it so I will of course not completely disregard the MM aspect though. :)
Just as an FYI, the almost 1 million pre-orders are physical boxes from retailers only and don't include purchases from amazon, origin, or any dIgital downloads (that's all VGChartz has access to). Pre-orders for America's are much more likely to be in the 2 mil range or beyond. It should easily be the largest MMO launch to date. Let's hope that they pull off a smooth launch.
SWTOR will be here for the long haul. Why? because Bioware wont sit on their hands and not add and up date things all the time. Plus they have a expansion in the works now. They have endless Planets,Classes and races they can add.
Several months ago, I predicted that SWTOR or GW2 could surpass WoW for NA + EU subscribers in 2012.
Can I assume you now do not think this prediction is so crazy?
Can I assume you now do not think this prediction is so crazy?
If you only count NA + EU subscribers, that prediction is not crazy at all. Blizzard is kind of cheating the subscription numbers with the less profitable but numerous Chinese players. I'd guess NA + EU subscriptions of WoW could well be down to 4 million or below in 2012, and that is doable by SWTOR if they don't botch release.
You are going to be highly disappointed once you play it. It seriously is a big letdown. Most of the reviews you see of the game praising it are people who have had a short play time. Once you play it more then a month you see it for what it is. Single player mmoRPG with chat. It will have zero staying power. I'm telling you, I have played them all, in six months this game will bed dead as hell.
Bhagpuss: A large number of commenters seem to be saying that they plan to play SW:tOR as a single-player, online RPG, largely ignoring the MM part. I'm curious to see how that works out for the game's longevity.
This will be a challenge for Bioware, but one they seem to be confronting head-on. The early guild formation was a clumsy way to kindle community, but it was one nonetheless.
Another promising decision is their refusal, so far, to do a WoW style LFD. Which means you will have to form acquaintances and actually talk to real people on your server in order to do any sort of group activity - people you will see in the game again, in the wild, and in warfronts. I'm reasonably convinced that LFD was a crippling blow to the server communities of WoW, and its absence is one of the reasons why people remember vanilla and BC so fondly.
If Bioware go out of their way to force people together, provide lots of highly accessible and rewarding small-group content and their updates are supple, frequent, and responsive to player concerns, they will be Okay.™ If not... I don't think people will be too keen on an ever-evolving KOTOR 3.
This will be a challenge for Bioware, but one they seem to be confronting head-on. The early guild formation was a clumsy way to kindle community, but it was one nonetheless.
Another promising decision is their refusal, so far, to do a WoW style LFD. Which means you will have to form acquaintances and actually talk to real people on your server in order to do any sort of group activity - people you will see in the game again, in the wild, and in warfronts. I'm reasonably convinced that LFD was a crippling blow to the server communities of WoW, and its absence is one of the reasons why people remember vanilla and BC so fondly.
If Bioware go out of their way to force people together, provide lots of highly accessible and rewarding small-group content and their updates are supple, frequent, and responsive to player concerns, they will be Okay.™ If not... I don't think people will be too keen on an ever-evolving KOTOR 3.
- There are lots of SWTOR preview blog posts everywhere.
- The overwhelming majority of these previews is positive.
If you mean the majority of the preview blogs are positive, I wonder if that is because very few of them have played the game.
From what I have seen, the game looks very good, with cinematic quests and cool story lines. But I have not actually played the game. There might be some problem with the game play which causes such an issue it ruins the game.
Luckily this coming weekend is a chance for people to really try the game. I'll be able to form a better opinion of it after some play.
- The overwhelming majority of these previews is positive.
If you mean the majority of the preview blogs are positive, I wonder if that is because very few of them have played the game.
From what I have seen, the game looks very good, with cinematic quests and cool story lines. But I have not actually played the game. There might be some problem with the game play which causes such an issue it ruins the game.
Luckily this coming weekend is a chance for people to really try the game. I'll be able to form a better opinion of it after some play.
fattymcbee said: "You are going to be highly disappointed once you play it. It seriously is a big letdown. Most of the reviews you see of the game praising it are people who have had a short play time."
And you've played it for how long?
And you've played it for how long?
I'm also looking to play it but can't decide my class yet, though I'm a pvp player and only thing i've found so far is this pvp videos for classes; http://www.swtorarena.com/page/story/_/swtor/choose-your-class-r19
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