Tobold's Blog
Tuesday, August 28, 2012
 
An answer to Mitt Romney

Facebook greeted me with the following advertisement from Mitt Romney:
"You’re Invited to a Republican National Convention Farewell Victory Rally with Mitt Romney, Paul Ryan and the Republican... — Friday, August 31 at 7:30am in EDT."
Dear Mitt Romney,

Thank you very much for your invitation. But besides the fact that I am European and thus not eligible to vote, I would also like to say that this is maybe a bit too early to already say Farewell to Victory. Hang in there, polls say you have a 50:50 chance of winning this. Being used to European standards of health care and egality, I would personally vote for your opponent. But I do think that you add a valid point about the size of government to this election, even if it is marred by the extreme one-sidedness of the proposed reductions and tax reliefs.

Regards,

Tobold

Comments:
I'm glad that you chose egality as your term. I think that's fair. I see it as the true European/American divide -- Europeans prefer egality (equality of results) while Americans prefer liberty (equality of opportunity.)

Liberty in that sense needs a strong representative to stand in for the "Leader of the Free World" role. Sarkozy was able to take the mantle after America abdicated in 2008, but we don't have him to kick around anymore, so the yin-yang of the world really needs Romney.
 
Well that doesn't sound like a very fun party. I hope there's a free bar at least.
 
Phelps: Just read your comment about /Sarkozy/ as leader of the free world. He doesn't even lead Europe. Now I really need a drink. Do people really think that? Man.
 
Spinksville -- you just experienced what the vast majority of Americans think when Europeans start opining on American politics.
 
Closer to 70-30 than 50-50.
 
Sorry, but NYT is just a propaganda arm of the DNC. That's like basing Putin's chances on what Pravda prints.

Intrade has Obama at 55%, and dropping:

http://www.intrade.com/v4/markets/contract/?contractId=743474

That's where smart people are putting real dollars. No one is buying intrade shares at $7. I think that after the GOP convention, when Romney can start spending the huge war chest he's amassed on ads, you'll be hard pressed to sell Obama shares at $4.50.
 
" you just experienced what the vast majority of Americans think when Europeans start opining on American politics."

Couldn't have said it any better myself, Phelps.

And I think that Victory rally is for the victory over the Republican primary, not the general election in November....

Also, beware any poll you read that samples "registered voters" instead of "likely voters" and also make sure the sample isn't skewed where more people of one party were sampled than of another. The ONLY accurate polls are those of likely voters with an equal balance of people by party, race and gender.

Now can we get back to games instead of politics?
 
Rorik said: "The ONLY accurate polls are those of likely voters with an equal balance of people by party, race and gender."

Yes, because the voting public is precisely evenly divided by party, race and gender. /eyeroll

I really this is classis Rasmussan spin, but in the real world, as opposed to Fox world, polls that accurately reflect the actual composition of the voting public are the ONLY accurate polls.

Sure, it's nice to ignore the fact that the number of registered Democrats is higher than the number of registered Republicans, even when you account for those "likely" to vote. Yeah, it makes it look much rosier for Republican candidates when you artificially inflate the number of voting Republicans to make the numbers equal that of Democrats, but accurate? Not so much.
 
"You just experienced what the vast majority of tribally minded people feel when people from outside of their tribal affiliation disagree with them."

It seems that Tobold's blog inavertently has led someone to blather that "Europe" means equality of outcome whereas "America" means equality of opportunity.

Speaking as someone with several decades of experience of both the US and European financial system and their attendant monied elites, I feel confident in saying that the US has lost all of its social mobility between generations (wealthy professionals in the US are nowadays born into it via Ivy League schooling), so US carping about freedom of opportunity is sadly misplaced.

http://www.economist.com/node/15908469

That's what The Economist has to say about social mobility in the US being on the decline. I'd believe a lot more in equality of opportunity if the US had equality of education system; presumably anyone sane would agee that equality of opportunity requires equality of education, something that frankly *both* Europe and the US lack (personally I think that the US is the bigger sinner on this point, but I have less conviction and little personal experience, compared to the other points).
 
I really this is classis Rasmussan spin, but in the real world, as opposed to Fox world, polls that accurately reflect the actual composition of the voting public are the ONLY accurate polls.

Except that Gallup largely agrees with Rasmussen.

http://www.gallup.com/poll/151943/Record-High-Americans-Identify-Independents.aspx

The only poll that counts are the ones that happen the first Tuesday in November, and they show a pretty even split every year.
 
"That's where smart people are putting real dollars"

Smart people put real dollars into American housing thanks to market-based advice systems and that was a really, really big mistake. Markets like Intrade are opinion-wranglers. I tend to avoid opinions when a mathematical answer is available.
 
@Phelps

Ok,so here is what the Gallup poll you cite says:

"Record-High 40% of Americans Identify as Independents in '11
More Americans identify as Democrats than as Republicans, 31% to 27%"

So, are you really telling me that a poll composed of 50% Republicans and 50% Democrats would be more accurate than one composed of 40% Independents, 31% Democrats, and 27% Republicans? Really?
 
Americans prefer liberty (equality of opportunity.)

If that is so, why would they vote Republican? How does Republican policy on immigration constitute equality of opportunity? How does Romney and Warren Buffet paying a lower tax rate than their secretaries constitute equality of opportunity?

America is one of the most unequal countries of the world (Gini coefficient), and Republican policies would make the rich richer and the poor poorer. To have equality of opportunity, there needs to be some degree of redistribution, so everybody has equal access to stuff like health care and education.
 
I started to write a detailed response, but it would just be shorter to say that you did not get a single premise right, and therefore you entire statement is borked.
 
I find a lot of your political posts amusing Tobold, in that they always remind me how different Europe and the US are. IIRC, you are center-right economically and yet your social policies would lead to everyone accusing you of being some far left radical here in the US. That's awfully silly.
 
What constitutes good policy can be debated. What constitutes good grammer much less so. I'm sorry if you can't see the humor in somebody planning a "Farewell Victory" party, regardless of which party he belongs to.
 
I think Romney would do well in Somalia, where small government, lax gun laws and unchecked freedom is rampant.
 
Or Switzerland.
 
I got it, Tobold. And his grammatical gaffs just keep mounting.

As far as the liberty/egality discussion, IMO Americans are in love with the idea of equal opportunity, but are also magical (and lazy) thinkers and inexplicably cling to the idea that an unregulated open market is the only path to that end.
 
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