Unless he plays the same game every day, a gamer frequently needs to make a prediction of fun. He will have to choose which game of his library to play next, and sometimes he might want to choose a new game for his collection. And the question of "will that game be fun?" is obviously an important criterion of choice. But how can we predict whether we will have fun playing some game today or tomorrow?

I think the main difficulty in this choice is whether to go for the old or for the new. If I played game A yesterday and had fun, it is rather natural choice to play game A again today. But we all know that this strategy has its limits: At some point we feel we have "finished" game A, be it because we reached the end of the game or because we simply grew bored of it. So we want to play something else. That still leaves us with a choice between old and new: We frequently predict that because we had fun with game A, we will also have fun with the sequel of game A. I don't know if you saw some of the lists of the best-selling video-games of 2013, but whatever version of it you believe in, it is most certainly dominated by sequels: GTA 5, Pokemon X/Y, Fifa 14, Battlefield 4, a Call of Duty sequel, Assassin's Creed 4, Bioshock Infinite, etc.

And it isn't just sequels: We also tend to stick to games of the same genre. If we grew bored of playing online multiplayer shooter Call of Duty and there isn't another sequel around, we'd rather try the latest Battlefield than to go for something completely different and play let's say a Pokemon game or The Sims. And because game companies know that, they have a tendency to produce games that are rather similar to whatever is selling well at the moment.

That gamer strategy of choosing the tried and tested genre of course also has its limits. Basically it is a problem of diminishing returns: If you switch from game A to game B, and game B is very similar to game A, your learning curve will be a lot shorter, but you are also likely to grow bored with the game faster. According to Raph Koster, the two are very much related, learning something new in a game is an important element of fun.

So one alternative strategy of predicting fun is to go for "something completely different", as Monty Python would have said. If your previous game was a multiplayer shooter, play a point-and-click adventure next, or a puzzle game, or a turn-based strategy game! The basic prediction of fun in that case is "I grew bored with this genre, I'll have more with something else.". But ultimately of course that is more of a shot in the dark than a prediction.

This is where game reviews and recommendations come in: If you are a huge fan of the Assassin's Creed series of games, you are likely to buy the next sequel regardless of what its Metacritic score is. But if you want to try something very different from what you usually play, going for a game that either has consistently high review scores, or is recommended by somebody you believe has similar tastes as you, improves your chance of having fun with a new game. It is still a matter of probability, as you might find that you simply don't like a particular genre of games and even playing the best of that lot isn't fun to you. But if you want for example to try a survival horror game for the first time, chances are you'll like The Last of Us (Metacritic score of 95) better than BlackSoul (Metacritic score of 25). Personally I tried The Last of Us this year, and found I simply don't like that genre, which isn't all that surprising, as I don't like horror movies either. But by going for the best of the lot, at least I'm reasonably sure that it is the genre I dislike, and not just that particular game.

As I have been playing video games for over 30 years now, I arrived at a mixed prediction of fun strategy: I rarely try completely new genres, as frankly new genres aren't arriving all that often. But I frequently change between genres I know I like. And to mix it up a little, I also sometimes play genres I'm indifferent about, but know I don't hate. How do you choose your next game to play or buy?