Saturday, May 18, 2019

Win rate maths

I get the feeling that I don't understand the mathematics of win rates in World of Tanks. My own win rate fluctuates between 48% and 49%, which is what one would expect for an average player. Slightly below 50%, because sometimes there are draws, and then nobody wins. So the overall average between all players is somewhere in that region. What still puzzles me is to come up with some formula that relates player performance to his win rate. How good do you need to be to reach 50%, 55%, or 60%? How high can you get?

A starting point is probably looking at how much damage you deal in a battle, divided by your own hit points. That ratio is probably very close to 1.0 for an average player. A player with a ratio of 0, basically going afk at the start of every battle, will presumably have a win rate lower than 48%, because in every battle his team has one tank less. But I don't know what that win rate would be, statistically speaking, because I find it hard to estimate how much one tank less would lower the chance to win.

At the other extreme, a player with a ratio of 15 is the theoretical maximum, which in practice will be impossible. But that player obviously would have a win rate of 100%, because he kills all the enemy tanks in every battle. But how does that scale down? A player with a ratio of 5.0 would already be very, very good. And his win rate would be higher than 50%, but I can't estimate how much. The best approximation I have is watching Quickybaby on Twitch, because doing 5 times his hit points in damage seems to be what he is able to achieve quite often, and his win rate is 60%.

What confuses the statistics is that some people play in groups, as platoons or in events for clans. With a platoon or clan taking up more than 1 slot of the 15 tanks per side, they can have a larger impact, and thus win more consistently. But for random battles it appears that between 40% and 60% win rate is about the realistic range that players can have. And I find it very, very hard to move my own win rate even by just 1%. And obviously it is getting harder all the time, because I now have 9.4k battles, so I would need to win a lot to make up for the past. No wonder some people make "reroll" accounts.

A starting point is probably looking at how much damage you deal in a battle, divided by your own hit points. That ratio is probably very close to 1.0 for an average player. A player with a ratio of 0, basically going afk at the start of every battle, will presumably have a win rate lower than 48%, because in every battle his team has one tank less. But I don't know what that win rate would be, statistically speaking, because I find it hard to estimate how much one tank less would lower the chance to win.

At the other extreme, a player with a ratio of 15 is the theoretical maximum, which in practice will be impossible. But that player obviously would have a win rate of 100%, because he kills all the enemy tanks in every battle. But how does that scale down? A player with a ratio of 5.0 would already be very, very good. And his win rate would be higher than 50%, but I can't estimate how much. The best approximation I have is watching Quickybaby on Twitch, because doing 5 times his hit points in damage seems to be what he is able to achieve quite often, and his win rate is 60%.

What confuses the statistics is that some people play in groups, as platoons or in events for clans. With a platoon or clan taking up more than 1 slot of the 15 tanks per side, they can have a larger impact, and thus win more consistently. But for random battles it appears that between 40% and 60% win rate is about the realistic range that players can have. And I find it very, very hard to move my own win rate even by just 1%. And obviously it is getting harder all the time, because I now have 9.4k battles, so I would need to win a lot to make up for the past. No wonder some people make "reroll" accounts.

Labels: World of Tanks

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I have never understood why many games calculate stats such as Win-Rate and Kill-Death-ratio from the start of time. It is a disincentive to learning by doing because the poor scores you accumulate while learning will be a millstone around your neck. Why can't they use some kind of moving average which heavily weights more recent performance?

One assumes they juke the matches to achieve 50%, so the people that suck or just go AFK all the time also have a near 50% rating.

The way to game that is position yourself in a class with a way higher than average tank crew.

Everyone else will just be averaged out. For each 0% damage player in a game, the 'matchmaker' just adds a 200% damage player.

If you're "Quickybaby" that permanently increases your win rate. if you're the 0% player, you hover at just under what the aggregate of available better players can pull you to, not to exceed 50%.

The way to game that is position yourself in a class with a way higher than average tank crew.

Everyone else will just be averaged out. For each 0% damage player in a game, the 'matchmaker' just adds a 200% damage player.

If you're "Quickybaby" that permanently increases your win rate. if you're the 0% player, you hover at just under what the aggregate of available better players can pull you to, not to exceed 50%.

All you can really do is develop some performance statistics for yourself, I think. The matchmaker will drive you towards 50% wins anyway if it's working right.

I haven’t played ‘World of Tanks’. In fact, I have just started gaming. So I am a bit lost here. However, from what I have understood, the way the system calculates the win rate is quite unfair for those playing solo.

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