Tobold's Blog
Sunday, May 23, 2021
 
The economics of retirement

I'm in my late 50's and I am thinking of early retirement. The big fundamental economic question of retirement is where your income will come from when you stop generating it by work. And the answer to that has two parts: Financial income from savings, and monthly income from whatever pension you have. If you look at the extremes, there is the FIRE movement (Financial Independence Retiring Early): Imagine you get a very good job relatively early in life, earning $100,000 per year. You live a frugal life and only spend $30,000 per year, saving $70,000 per year. 15 years later you have a million dollars in the bank and retire early. If you get about 3% financial income from that million dollars, you can still spend $30,000 per year, but without having to work anymore.

Obviously such a plan is not very realistic for most people. Not many people get such a high income early in life, and if you have a family with children then saving most of your income often isn't possible. The other extreme, which in many countries in Europe is much closer to reality, is that you work until the official retirement age in your country, which is going up slowly from around 65 previously to now 67 or even more. By paying into the state pension system over all these years of work, you acquire rights to a monthly pension after reaching that age.

Personally, I could never have retired in my 30's like the FIRE movement suggests. In order to get a good income, I had to go to university and get a Ph.D. degree, so in my early 30's I was just starting my career. And, which probably has to do with the culture of the baby boomer generation, I wasn't actually interested in retiring in my 30's. I *wanted* to work, and use the skills my long years at university taught me, and hopefully make a difference.

But what I realized is that the two extremes, FIRE or official retirement age, are just that, extremes on a large range of possibilities. The state pension plan is what our American friends would call "socialist". It protects the weaker members of society who never earned a lot and never saved much from too much poverty. But if you have a salary which is considerably higher than the net average monthly salary in your country, you are losing out on the state pension scheme: You pay in more than the average guy, but you don't get out more, because there are caps. I don't want to work for another decade. The idealism of my younger years has faded, even if my work today is making more of a difference than it did then.

The good news is that I don't have to. Most state pension schemes have early retirement options, where you leave before the official retirement age in exchange for a lower pension. Also companies offer early retirement schemes, basically paying older employees for stopping to work earlier. I don't know in how far that exists in America, where it is easier to fire an older employee; in Europe it can be cheaper for a company to pay an employee to stay home than it would be to fire him after working for quarter of a century in the same company, due to various worker protection laws.

Curiously enough, the pandemic helped with the psychological fear of retirement. When going to work in an office or factory every day, the idea of suddenly staying at home every day is somewhat daunting: How would life at home day for day be like? A year of home office answered that question. Replace work zoom meetings with something more fun, like a Roll20 D&D session, and you can easily make the mental switch from home office to retirement. I still have to work out some details, but it is totally possible that I'll stop working in the near future, in a year or so.


Comments:
It's something that has also been on my mind lately, I'm 36 now. Not that I can retire yet, but I want to make sure I can retire when I'm 55 a 60, even if the government doesn't pay me anything.

"By paying into the state pension system". The issue here is that our Belgian pension system is non existing. The working population pays for those who are now retired, you don't save for your own pension.
- They're changing the retirement age. What will it be in 30 years. Still 67 (65 for those retiring now)? 70? 75? I don't want to keep working past 70.
- Our country has a debt of over 120% GDP. In thirty years there will be roughly 2 people working for every retiree, most likely one of them working for the government. Will one person working have to pay for 2+ other? We already have taxes of >50% on income, will they increase them even more? Fix it by mass immigration?
- Now, instead of doing something about it, our government has decided to increase the min pensions for everyone to €1500 a month, that's about €200 more than average. How will they pay for it? They don't have a clue, they're not even seriously discussing it. So, it comes down to adding more debt to the pile.

It largely comes down to not trusting my government and thus having to make sure that I can retire no matter what.
 
I'm not a diehard FIRE guy, but I'm certainly a lot closer to that end of the spectrum. I love my work, but I just happen to love travel, videogames, and boardgames a lot more. With these sorts of hobbies, it's hard to imagine being bored at home, as long as you have any sort of social circle. FWIW, I'm in Canada which has a lot more European-style safety nets (such as healthcare) that make retiring early a bit less scary vs America.

I'm also in a career where my 20s were largely spent on education, and I didn't begin my earning potential until just before my 30s. However, as I've been fortunate that my professional work has been very lucrative, my wife and I have only slightly scaled up our expenses. We still spend more than the average person, but we save about 60-75% of our after-tax savings. We aren't rigid about it, we just don't crazy with spending (although I did buy a Tesla M3 earlier this year).

I spent the last few years joking about retiring at 35, and as that number approaches, I don't think I'll actually call it quits at 35. But that's mostly because I think that if I keep at the clinic for a few more years I can make it self-sufficient without me, and then I can "retire" while still making nearly my full income. However, I plan to set myself a hard deadline of 37 or 38 where I'll take a step back regardless. There are too many fun things in the world to spend it all in an office, and the marginal reward of helping others through my work diminishes with each passing year.
 
In Australia we have ‘superannuation’, which is 9% (or more) of your wage mandated to be paid to an investment fund. Ironically, I’ll be wealthier when I’m 60 than I am now. I’m aiming to retire at about 45 with a frugal lifestyle. I have no issues coming up with things to do at home! Of course, children and fancy homes and cars get in the way of early retirement for most people
 
I hope it works out for you. I've always targeted later 50s as my retirement goal. I've got ~decade to go. I'm in the US and have relied mostly on 401k for retirement, although we also maintain a healthy savings amount. It's hard to forecast the future, however I'm on track. Since I'm in the US healthcare is the biggest question mark. We have health issues in our family and the trajectory those issues take will guide our retirement plans. I don't count on our Social Security program being viable for my retirement so anything that we do get from it will be a bonus.

Retirement is a fascinating subject for me. I always think that retirement isn't a given or a right, but something to be achieved. Lions don't get retirement. Probably a pretty American view.
 
Congrats on getting there. I've been thinking about it more. I'll be in my late 40s this year and wanted to retire in my 50s. 55 was my original goal. I'm roughly on track, I'm able to put away a lot of my income through frugal living. I'm not counting on any pension, I've switched companies too often and normally just roll their pension into my own retirement account. If I could retire today I would. I've lost my love for my work and find most companies want to push people harder and bury their employees with endless lists of things to do. Many of them unrelated to your profession.
 
I just turned 31 and finally started investing into stocks and a retirement plan that my new job offers last year.

I opted to not go with a pension and instead an aggressive investment plan. I'm scheduled to retire at 60 if I stay at the same workplace for the next 30 years. If I leave I can roll over my investment fund to a standard 401k or something similar. The fund has managed a 40% return over the past year which is pretty nuts in my opinion, but I don't expect that to be normal going forward.

I'm planning on upping my contributions each year as raises allow until I max out. Feel like I started a bit later then I should have but finally setting money aside for retirement really feels nice.

 
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