Tobold's Blog
Wednesday, June 23, 2021
 
Continued market failure

Reading tech and gaming news regularly, I can't help but notice news like this, where 7 months after the PlayStation 5 was released, the fact that you could possibly have a chance to buy one anywhere is still considered newsworthy. It appears more and more likely that even next Christmas not everyone hoping to find one under the Christmas tree will be so lucky. Rather than blaming Santa, I would call this a market failure. Just like people in countries of Eastern Europe under communism queuing for a chance to buy a few bananas was a market failure. That didn't end well for communism. And I would argue that it won't end well for consoles either.

It is not as if the PC gaming market didn't have the occasional failure, like the release of Cyberpunk 2077. But that is only single games. The availability of both hardware and software for playing games on the PC is excellent, with a recurring theme on this blog being that we have too many games to play. To be *not* able to go out and play a game, just because you can't get hold of the hardware for it, feels weird. And except for a few die hard loyalists, most people will react to situations like this by realizing that there are a lot of other platforms and games out there. Just like anyone who was disappointed by the release of Cyberpunk 2077 won't be too excited for CD Project's next game, people who were disappointed by the availability of the PlayStation 5 might not be queuing up anymore for the PS6.

Comments:
Eh just about every single industry is facing similar shortages. Something like 70-80% of new cars are sold before even hitting dealer lots here in the US.

Steel is more expensive. Lumbar is more expensive.

Same thing is happening in the PC hardware space with GPUs, PSUs and other components.

My local Bestbuy is having trouble keeping all the laptops they carry in stock.

We have a strong surge in demand following a period of reduced production. This is what happens when industries all convert to Just in Time lean production models and then don't get supplied in time. Backlogs and shortages for months.

I don't think this will have any long lasting impact on demand for these items. Consoles are selling as fast as they hit the shelves so the demand is still there.
 
It's pretty clear you haven't had a need for a graphics card in the last year. The only reliable way to get one is to buy it from a scalper on eBay for twice (or higher) the MSRP. Seriously, a GTX 3070 is $499 MSRP, but sells out instantly via bots and the scalpers throw it on eBay for $1000+. There are stories everywhere about people selling their older graphics cards (2070, 1070, etc) for hundreds of dollars more than they bought it for 2+ years ago. If your PC dies anytime soon, you are straight screwed unless you're into games that can be played on a potato.

The pandemic is largely at fault, of course, but our current situation is shining a spotlight on the bizarre fact that apparently there's like two companies in the whole goddamn world capable of making semiconductors and one of those is in Taiwan. Like, the place most likely to cause China and the US to enter WWIII. Reminds me of the hard drive shortages a few years ago when there was flooding in Thailand. These are global market failures, and they weren't caused by communism.
 
Two more tweets from Elon Musk, and Bitcoin falls back to 2019 price levels, leading to a large number of used graphic cards swamping the market. :)

Anyway, I checked Amazon.com. You can't get a PS5 there. You can get a lot of different graphics cards, although the top end cards are rather pricey. You can also get a lot of different gaming PCs, which are as fast as the one I am playing on, and this one is not a potato. I looked at the system requirements of some 2021 games, and the graphics cards listed as minimum requirement can be had for a hundred bucks. Yes, sure, you'll want more than that minimum, but nobody really needs a GTX 3070 (unless you mine Bitcoin).
 
Well, it definitely looks like "profit" and "redundancy" don't go well together.... The new global economy may be efficient, but it is completely useless when dealing with any kind of perturbation....

As for the GTX3070, that's the kind of hardware you need if you want a decent frame rate with a 4k screen. Do you "need" that? No, but it looks nice :)
 
I don't agree that the term "market failure" is correct for this situation.

Free market economy never promised that everyone could get a particular good at a particular price. When something is scarce, the price goes up. Even if the original manufacturer does not increase the prices, there are enough free agents who take advantage, and spend some time and resources to get it at the original price, then resell it and profit.

As for communism, the term "market failure" again is incorrect, as there was no free market and economy there, it was instead "planned economy", where the state was supposed to plan accordingly and satisfy the needs of all it's citizens. By the way, bananas, like almost everything else that was imported, were considered luxury items, since there was no free trade between socialist and capitalist states. The problem under socialism/communism was that there were endemic shortages even of locally produced items like toilet paper. But inability of getting those items was not a "marked failure", but a "planning failure".
 
> Yes, sure, you'll want more than that minimum, but nobody really needs a GTX 3070 (unless you mine Bitcoin).

I would. I'm playin on a 32" 4K screen and you can't enjoy a decent framerate at that resolution, unless you've got a good GPU. Being able to buy a 3070 would be nice. Also, if my current (mediocre) GPU dies.... I am screwed. The market is crazy right now.
 
I would argue that there is a difference between "I can't play this game at all, because I can't get a PS5" and "I am forced to play this game on a 27" monitor at 2560x1440 resolution, because I can't get a GTX 3070".
 
It's all about compromise. Just like nobody needs a 3070, nobody needs a PS5 either. You can buy a PS4 and have a lot of fun with it. But if you're on a PC with a high resolution (above fullHD) you will need a decent GPU if you want to work AND play on the same machine.

An entire PS4 + 2 controllers is currently cheaper than buying an old-generation GPU. So, in my opinion, PC users are screwed just like anyone else.
 
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