Friday, June 03, 2022
Where did the lost trillion go?
You might have heard of the recent crypto currency and related NFT crash wiping out $1 trillion of market capitalization. So, where did that trillion go? The answer is that it never existed in the first place, and that while a lot of people lost real money, the "crypto market crash" is basically just hiding the initial scam.
Let's say I invent a new crypto currency with an extremely limited number of crypto coins, just 4. I sell the first one to my friend Adam for $1. With me and Adam now telling my friend Bill that this will "go to the moon", I sell Bill the second crypto coin for $2. That further spurs interest, and I sell the third coint to Charlie for $3, and the fourth coin to Dave for $4. So what is the market capitalization of my crypto currency now? Well, it is the number of coins in circulation times the latest market price, so 4 times $4 or $16. Then Adam, Bill, Charlie, and Dave want to cash out. But they are unable to find anyone else who believes that crypto coin is worth that much, and end up all selling their coins for $0.25 back to me. Now the market capitalization of my coin is 4 times $0.25, or $1. It's a crypto crash! $15 in value have been wiped out!
But if you think of it, Adam, Bill, Charlie, and Dave all together just spent $10, and got $1 back, so the actual money lost was just $9. That doesn't change if we assume that just before the crash, Adam, Bill, and Charlie sold their crypto coins to Dave for $4. Only that now Dave lost $15, and Adam, Bill, and Charlie together made $6, the difference still being $9. And Adam, Bill, and Charlie are probably still big fans of crypto currencies, with Dave being the "greater fool" on which these money making schemes rely upon.
But the main scammer in this hypothetical scenario would me, because I "pumped and dumped" my completely worthless crypto currency. The $9 weren't "lost", they are in my pocket now. And why scam gullible people with crypto currency instead of selling them a bridge, an emerald mine, or worthless shares? Because previous financial scams, like Charles Ponzi's original "Ponzi scheme", have led to regulations and laws against financial fraud when they concern more traditional financial tools. Crypto currencies and NFTs being "new" doesn't only make them more attractive to greater fool buyers ("this time it's different"), it also has the added advantage of being mostly unregulated. For the time being, because as soon as a lot of people lose a lot of money, they will be the ones asking for protection, aka regulation.
Charlie still making a buck by buying the crypto coin for $3 and selling it to Dave for $4 is lucky for him, but that doesn't make his "crypto investment" a smart move. It is a game of Russian Roulette, it gets more dangerous the further it goes on. Dave thought he could sell his crypto coins to Edgar for $5, but it turned out that Edgar wasn't the greater fool, and the crypto currency crashed while Dave was holding the bag. The inherent value of that crypto coin is zero, and anything you pay above that is foolish, just that you might hope be the lesser fool, not the greater one.
Comments:
<< Home
Newer› ‹Older
When the term "greater fool" starts to get used enough regarding an investment that it goes mainstream (I am seeing it pop up in nearly every crypto discussion now), it's a bad sign for that investment.
I am now waiting for the cryptobros to start saying that they always knew it was a bubble and they were just "investing ironically."
Friend shared this with me.
I agree 100% with above.
i'd also say that a great deal of that is also true for...
stocks
art
etc..etc..etc..
If something increases in "value" - where do the $ actually come from?
Elon Musk - has 861 billion $? no... no he doesn't. It's all perceived value if he can get someone(s) to buy all of his stocks at the current price. Mind you if he were to sell them all, they would all tank along with the entire stock market as well. So his real and honest value is waaaaay less.
I agree 100% with above.
i'd also say that a great deal of that is also true for...
stocks
art
etc..etc..etc..
If something increases in "value" - where do the $ actually come from?
Elon Musk - has 861 billion $? no... no he doesn't. It's all perceived value if he can get someone(s) to buy all of his stocks at the current price. Mind you if he were to sell them all, they would all tank along with the entire stock market as well. So his real and honest value is waaaaay less.
The comparison with the stock market is not that simple.
What Tobold describes is speculation, i.e. when you buy an asset not for its value, but only in hope of finding someone who wants to buy it at a higher price. With stocks, you buy part of a company, which has real-world assets and a production. Stocks become like crypto when their value becomes completely detached from the underlying reality, something which periodically happens and ends up being called a bubble.
Post a Comment
What Tobold describes is speculation, i.e. when you buy an asset not for its value, but only in hope of finding someone who wants to buy it at a higher price. With stocks, you buy part of a company, which has real-world assets and a production. Stocks become like crypto when their value becomes completely detached from the underlying reality, something which periodically happens and ends up being called a bubble.
<< Home