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Tuesday, September 05, 2023
Science Fiction?
I’m a boomer, I was born in the early 60’s. And I just need to leaf through some family photo albums to see how much our daily lives have changed over the last 60 years. A Belgian mobile phone operator this year ran a series of advertisements where somebody showed people in their 20s objects like a floppy disc, a walkman, or a Viewfinder toy, with the slogan “if you don’t know what these objects are, we got a special mobile phone plan for your generation”. Technology strongly influences behavior, it is hard to realize for younger people that there was a time when there were no mobile phones, and family, friends, or work colleagues weren’t reachable all the time. As a kid in the 70s I had books, toys, and board games, but I was already a teenager before I saw the first game console, and it played only Pong. I remember black & white TV, recording music from the radio on cassettes, record players with vinyl discs, my first computer with 1 kB of RAM, and lots of other things that would be hard to understand for somebody born this century. So, given the rapid change in technology and life over the last 60 years, I do not think hat this change will come to a halt. The objects I use frequently today will look quaint or unrecognizable to somebody in 60 years, and I today can’t even imagine the everyday items the people in 60 years will be using.
Starfield is science fiction, playing in the year 2330. Three centuries is a very long time if you consider everyday life, technology, and living standards. 300 years ago, in the early 1700s, people were still using candles and oil lamps to light their homes and were cooking on wood stoves. The nature of the Starfield game is that you frequently go through people’s homes and work spaces, usually to streal everything that isn’t attached. So you get a very detailed view how the writers of Starfield imagine everyday life in three centuries to be. And the lack of imagination is astounding, it seems that way of life and interior decoration will barely change in the next three centuries. Computers will still have flat screens and keyboards, and icon-based user interfaces. Even voice-controlled smart speakers are still state of the art in 2330.
That observation isn’t unique to Starfield. There is a lot of science fiction depiction in 2023 which looks less advanced than the household of the Jetsons, as drawn in 1963. And I think the big cultural difference is that in the 60s we still believed that technology would improve lives. George Jetson was shown having the 2-day work week, and even then worked just 1 hour per work day. Which was enough to afford an upper middle class lifestyle, robot maid included. Our belief in the future has gotten a lot darker in 2023. Earth is an uninhabitable wasteland in Starfield. 78 percent of American adults in 2023 believe that their children will have worse lives than they do. I couldn’t find numbers for 1963, but I’m pretty certain that is was the other way around then. Progress these days, for example in artificial intelligence, is greeted with concerns that it will destroy humanity. The more optimistic view that AI and automatization could lead to all of us having to work a lot less while keeping up a good standard of living, isn’t generally shared anymore.
We also appear curiously unaware of the social progress we have made. It was poignant how in the celebrations of the 60th anniversary of the March on Washington the media carefully avoided to quote MLK’s “I have a dream” speech. The uncomfortable truth is that these days the demand that children be judged by their character and not by the color of their skin is considered a conservative talking point, while progressives consider color-blindness a racist concept that doesn’t go far enough. Which isn’t to say that MLK’s dream has already fully come through, but the progress in all forms of social justice matters over the last 60 years has been enormous. In the early 60s the first states of the US just began decrimininalizing homosexuality, and transgender rights are a lot more modern than that. Given that workers’ rights and salaries have progressed a lot less over the past decades than social issues, the continued focus on identity politics in the US is a puzzle to me. It appears to me that activism towards greater economic equality would improve more lives faster, including lives of minority groups, than calls for slavery reparations. In global comparisons the correlation between lower income inequality and people being generally happier is very well established.
The big question is in how far our mistrust of actual technological and social progress will keep us from progressing further. Will our houses and lives in 2330 look like they are shown in Starfield, because we put a moratorium on labor-saving technology? Will our fear of the future stop us from having one? Will the Jetsons have the 2-hour work week, or will they work 5 jobs, children included?
- posted by Tobold @ 2:40 PM Permanent Link
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So I have been watching the new Star Trek shows recently and noticed the lack of forward progress in the technology.
Star Trek is often cited as inspiring future engineers and inventors to try to realize the gadgets they saw on the show and yet the modern series doesn't really seem to be pushing that same creativity. I wonder what is inspiring the creators and thinkers of tomorrow.
I think your questions at the end there are poignant. Between increasing economic disparity, climate change, and cultural wars my outlook on the future is pretty bleak. Unless things radically change I don't forsee things like the "American Dream" of being a reality for most Americans every again. I know this isn't the first time in history things have gotten much worse for newer generations but it really makes me question what will become of generation Z and this even younger generation of kids that had their learning severely stunted due to Covid.
Millennials are pushing their 40s and Boomers will likely all be retired by the end of the decade so the excuse of the "Me" generation keeping everyone down won't exist any longer. Let's see if things change or not. I think they won't and people will just find something or someone else to blame.
Star Trek is often cited as inspiring future engineers and inventors to try to realize the gadgets they saw on the show and yet the modern series doesn't really seem to be pushing that same creativity. I wonder what is inspiring the creators and thinkers of tomorrow.
I think your questions at the end there are poignant. Between increasing economic disparity, climate change, and cultural wars my outlook on the future is pretty bleak. Unless things radically change I don't forsee things like the "American Dream" of being a reality for most Americans every again. I know this isn't the first time in history things have gotten much worse for newer generations but it really makes me question what will become of generation Z and this even younger generation of kids that had their learning severely stunted due to Covid.
Millennials are pushing their 40s and Boomers will likely all be retired by the end of the decade so the excuse of the "Me" generation keeping everyone down won't exist any longer. Let's see if things change or not. I think they won't and people will just find something or someone else to blame.
Don’t worry! Your time will come when you are being blamed for everything, and “OK, Gen X” will become a popular insult. :)
This is an interesting post but I'm having a hard time processing it. There's always been push back against technology - didn't the Luddites destroy the machines that they thought were taking their jobs? This seems like another one of those "rediscoveries" where we think that there are new views/approaches to something but to me it seems like a rehash or good old humanity variability. What it really seems like you're getting at is how popular a particular view is. To me it seems that we have such a large human population that there are large camps for any position.
I have no idea how Starfield depicts the future, however I do know that developers routinely abstain from futurism that leaves their art ungrounded from the current reality. While I can't recall the article, I remember reading years ago (I think about Star Citizen) where they intentionally didn't go wild with their imagination since they didn't believe that people would accept things that they couldn't relate to. I don't know if that's what Bethesda did, but it wouldn't surprise me, they've shown to be conservative (not in the political sense) in the past.
As for the actual future of humanity it's my opinion that our technological progress will be determined by how well we are able to combat the negative effects of our current technology. We have a lot of work to do to fix the issues that we were (for the most part) unknowingly creating. If we can do that then technology can truly be seen as a "savior". If not, then I'd imagine technology will be villanized.
Personally I care less about what the technology of the future looks like and care more about whether it is enriching or depleting our lives on a micro and macro level.
I have no idea how Starfield depicts the future, however I do know that developers routinely abstain from futurism that leaves their art ungrounded from the current reality. While I can't recall the article, I remember reading years ago (I think about Star Citizen) where they intentionally didn't go wild with their imagination since they didn't believe that people would accept things that they couldn't relate to. I don't know if that's what Bethesda did, but it wouldn't surprise me, they've shown to be conservative (not in the political sense) in the past.
As for the actual future of humanity it's my opinion that our technological progress will be determined by how well we are able to combat the negative effects of our current technology. We have a lot of work to do to fix the issues that we were (for the most part) unknowingly creating. If we can do that then technology can truly be seen as a "savior". If not, then I'd imagine technology will be villanized.
Personally I care less about what the technology of the future looks like and care more about whether it is enriching or depleting our lives on a micro and macro level.
It seems that overall we are very bad at guessing technology advance.
For example, flying car, interstellar vessels, etc... are very unlikely to appear in the next centuries - previous science revolution have never proved wrong past theory, but simply limit their scope,and current physics state that those type of transport are impossible at a large scale.
If you take scifi book from the first half of XXth century, and even after ( Fahrenheit 251, 1984, Azimov), none of them have predicted one of the biggest recent invention : Internet.
I would also guess that keyboard are here for the long term : even huge progress in text-to-speech have not converted people away from keyboard. ANd they have been there since the begining of using a tool to write for us - the only exception are the first printing press where you would compose text with movable type.
Color and shape can change very fast, but function imply some aspect. Shirt & buttons exist for thousand years, and will still be a significant part of top wear in the next centuries.
For example, flying car, interstellar vessels, etc... are very unlikely to appear in the next centuries - previous science revolution have never proved wrong past theory, but simply limit their scope,and current physics state that those type of transport are impossible at a large scale.
If you take scifi book from the first half of XXth century, and even after ( Fahrenheit 251, 1984, Azimov), none of them have predicted one of the biggest recent invention : Internet.
I would also guess that keyboard are here for the long term : even huge progress in text-to-speech have not converted people away from keyboard. ANd they have been there since the begining of using a tool to write for us - the only exception are the first printing press where you would compose text with movable type.
Color and shape can change very fast, but function imply some aspect. Shirt & buttons exist for thousand years, and will still be a significant part of top wear in the next centuries.
"The the continued focus on identity politics in the US is a puzzle to me."
It's a distraction to keep large swaths of the country from uniting on issues that would make a real difference to the lives of the majority of people. On the right it's very much engineered. On the left it's a lack of pragmatism that is truly baffling, and perhaps also engineered to some extent.
On technology, using the cell phone as an example, at first I was a bit stymied as to how it could be improved even in theory. It's a magic box that lets you access nearly any fact, talk to almost anyone anywhere at any time, play a crap ton of games, organize your schedule, manage your house remotely if it's set up for it, and god knows what else.
However, after pondering it a bit, I realized a magic cell phone would allow you to expand and contract the screen at will so that you could adapt it for whatever you are doing. Scroll it way out and have a TV, a bit and have an iPAd, or leave it small for talking. If there was in input that could magically expand out to a keyboard and mouse when you want it to, that would also be really cool. It's might only be able to work that way by relying on direct input back and forth from your brain instead of anything physical. But that could still be depicted in a game.
So I think it basically comes down to a lack of imagination and effort, or a purposeful design choice to have the tech recognizable.
It's a distraction to keep large swaths of the country from uniting on issues that would make a real difference to the lives of the majority of people. On the right it's very much engineered. On the left it's a lack of pragmatism that is truly baffling, and perhaps also engineered to some extent.
On technology, using the cell phone as an example, at first I was a bit stymied as to how it could be improved even in theory. It's a magic box that lets you access nearly any fact, talk to almost anyone anywhere at any time, play a crap ton of games, organize your schedule, manage your house remotely if it's set up for it, and god knows what else.
However, after pondering it a bit, I realized a magic cell phone would allow you to expand and contract the screen at will so that you could adapt it for whatever you are doing. Scroll it way out and have a TV, a bit and have an iPAd, or leave it small for talking. If there was in input that could magically expand out to a keyboard and mouse when you want it to, that would also be really cool. It's might only be able to work that way by relying on direct input back and forth from your brain instead of anything physical. But that could still be depicted in a game.
So I think it basically comes down to a lack of imagination and effort, or a purposeful design choice to have the tech recognizable.
Today I learned that George Jetson only worked a 2 hour work week. I watched the show as a kid and never picked up on that.
I know someone whose current job may be replaced in the next few month by AI. Should employers be required to hold on to employees in such cases and provide them, or not, with something else to do? Or should such employees be let go and then find somewhere else to work? What would be best for society?
In the USA many (most?) salary positions are "at will" employment so termination can happen anytime without notice and without cause. This is very different from Japan where there must be cause and notice for termination.
I know someone whose current job may be replaced in the next few month by AI. Should employers be required to hold on to employees in such cases and provide them, or not, with something else to do? Or should such employees be let go and then find somewhere else to work? What would be best for society?
In the USA many (most?) salary positions are "at will" employment so termination can happen anytime without notice and without cause. This is very different from Japan where there must be cause and notice for termination.
# posted by 
: 8/9/23 02:52
: 8/9/23 02:52
Today I learned that George Jetson only worked a 2 hour work week. I watched the show as a kid and never picked up on that.
I know someone whose current job may be replaced in the next few month by AI. Should employers be required to hold on to employees in such cases and provide them, or not, with something else to do? Or should such employees be let go and then find somewhere else to work? What would be best for society?
In the USA many (most?) salary positions are "at will" employment so termination can happen anytime without notice and without cause. This is very different from Japan where there must be cause and notice for termination.
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I know someone whose current job may be replaced in the next few month by AI. Should employers be required to hold on to employees in such cases and provide them, or not, with something else to do? Or should such employees be let go and then find somewhere else to work? What would be best for society?
In the USA many (most?) salary positions are "at will" employment so termination can happen anytime without notice and without cause. This is very different from Japan where there must be cause and notice for termination.
# posted by : 8/9/23 02:53
: 8/9/23 02:53<< Home
