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Thursday, January 11, 2024
It is going to be alright
I am politically a centrist, and a bit left of center. I voted for one of the parties in the current left of center government in Germany. If I lived in the UK, I would vote Labour. If I lived in the US, I would vote Democrat. But the outlook for left of center parties isn't great: The current coalition government in Germany is deeply unpopular, and the two most popular parties in surveys now are center right followed by far right. In the USA, it becomes increasingly likely that Donald Trump will be elected president again, with attempts to stop him by the courts instead of the ballot box being both unsuccessful and unpopular. Only in the UK does it look like that Labour will win the next election, which after 12 years of Tory rule and a string of prime ministers (one of which lost a shelf-life competition against a lettuce) isn't really surprising. So when reading various international left wing social and mainstream media, there is a sense of panic: "The rise of the far right", "Trump will be a dictator", etc., etc.. I have a different theory on that: Things are going to be alright!
I believe that a cycle over several elections from left to right and back is necessary for democracy to work. Modern media, whether social or mainstream, are mostly clickbait these days; forecasting that an election of the other party is going to lead to the end of the world is par for the course. In fact, over the years I have been far more often disappointed that the party in government changed, but politics remained largely the same. In the countries that did have a left of center government last year, I would have hoped for more support of strikers, higher minimum wages, and other measures. I am ashamed to live in an economic system in which there are so many people working 40+ hours a week and still in poverty. If these people can't get a living wage under a left of center government, no wonder they vote for populist right wing parties. We are lucky if that is the worst they do.
People are always unhappy with the government they have, and believe somebody else would do better. Coming into power is usually what it takes for a (far) right party to become less popular. If after the next UK election the Tories are in opposition and try to get by promising to stop immigration, people will point out that they tried that for 12 years and utterly failed. The secret of populist parties is frequently to remain in permanent opposition, so that nobody notices that they couldn't keep any of their promises if they were in power. Trump was maybe lucky that with the pandemic nobody noticed that he *didn't* make America great again, so maybe it needs a second term for people to realize.
The important thing is to realize that the voters for the other party are people too, and that they do have valid concerns. Only by a peaceful transfer of power ever so often, back and forth, do all the concerns of both sides have a chance of getting addressed. One side in power too long tends to make that party power crazy and willing to try to realize their most extreme politics. Losing elections is important for a party, so they get an occasional reality check and start noticing what voters really care about. And that is usually their economic condition, something that many left parties should care about more. Things are going to be alright if sometimes the right wins, and actually better than having the left in power permanently.
- posted by Tobold @ 3:43 PM Permanent Link
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I’m in the US and not worried either. The entire bureaucracy and the media is against him so his worst impulses will be kept in check. I’m more about the Biden suppression of free speech given we actually have media that supports it. Not sure what it’s like in other countries.
# posted by 
: 11/1/24 18:06
: 11/1/24 18:06
The good news here is that again the checks and balances worked, and the courts intervened.
The more complicated part of the story is that we are sure that there is deliberate misinformation on the internet. And we are sure that there are individuals just excercising their right to free speech. What we don’t know is who is who. If a foreign government, e.g. Russia or China, is using US social media for let’s say election interference, would we want the US government to stop them? Most people would think so, but in practice the actions that would be taken to combat deliberate disinformation are the same that would be taken to suppress free speech. The only reason that this is less a problem in other countries is that the social media used in Europe are mostly American companies, and European governments have a lot less influence on these companies than the US government has. China on the other hand suppresses free speech a lot more on the Chinese social media than the US does.
The more complicated part of the story is that we are sure that there is deliberate misinformation on the internet. And we are sure that there are individuals just excercising their right to free speech. What we don’t know is who is who. If a foreign government, e.g. Russia or China, is using US social media for let’s say election interference, would we want the US government to stop them? Most people would think so, but in practice the actions that would be taken to combat deliberate disinformation are the same that would be taken to suppress free speech. The only reason that this is less a problem in other countries is that the social media used in Europe are mostly American companies, and European governments have a lot less influence on these companies than the US government has. China on the other hand suppresses free speech a lot more on the Chinese social media than the US does.
Agree. My main issue was the targeting of those who were identifiable as Americans but were refuting the official narrative- and in many cases were actually correct.
# posted by : 11/1/24 21:24
: 11/1/24 21:24
"I am ashamed to live in an economic system in which there are so many people working 40+ hours a week and still in poverty.
Care to elaborate on this? I'm interested in what is behind this poverty that you are speaking about. If it's a matter of higher rent, groceries, electricity bills, car payments, insurance, cable bill, cell phone bill, and the host of other things that people are asked/required to pay for, then I would also ask if you would agree that we might wish to take another look at how our system has advanced in such a way so as to enslave us into a state of perpetual servitude?
Care to elaborate on this? I'm interested in what is behind this poverty that you are speaking about. If it's a matter of higher rent, groceries, electricity bills, car payments, insurance, cable bill, cell phone bill, and the host of other things that people are asked/required to pay for, then I would also ask if you would agree that we might wish to take another look at how our system has advanced in such a way so as to enslave us into a state of perpetual servitude?
# posted by : 12/1/24 00:31
: 12/1/24 00:31
Capitalism produces wealth, and it has been shown that it produces more wealth overall than any other economic system we tried. However, the production of wealth requires multiple factors of production, which include land, labor, entrepreneurship, and capital. The fundamental problem is how you distribute the produced wealth between the people who provided the factors of production. The problem of working poor is based on the fact that labor is getting a much smaller part of the pie today than it got in the middle of the 20th century, while capital is getting a much larger part.
The problem of working poor is based on the fact that labor is getting a much smaller part of the pie today than it got in the middlet 20th century, while capital is getting a much larger part.
I would disagree. The rising costs of rent, food, clothing, electricity and other needed costs have risen much more than any rational pay raise could ever hope to cover.
I would disagree. The rising costs of rent, food, clothing, electricity and other needed costs have risen much more than any rational pay raise could ever hope to cover.
# posted by : 12/1/24 09:13
: 12/1/24 09:13
I think the idea of "rational pay rise" is propaganda by rich people. Nobody talks of "rational profit rise". See how profits have grown much faster than wages since the last financial crisis. You would need an "irrational" pay rise of 25% for everybody in order to bring wages back in line with profits.
Tobold: "[...] the production of wealth requires multiple factors of production, which include land, labor, entrepreneurship, and capital. The fundamental problem is how you distribute the produced wealth between the people who provided the factors of production. The problem of working poor is based on the fact that labor is getting a much smaller part of the pie today than it got in the middle of the 20th century, while capital is getting a much larger part."
and
"[...] in order to bring wages back in line with profits."
But isn't that assuming that profits and wages follow the same curve? You have at least your four factors. What if the value of labour is plateauing and another value is pulling more weight?
I mean how much value can you squeeze from flipping burgers and how much from being popular: MrBeast Burger?
and
"[...] in order to bring wages back in line with profits."
But isn't that assuming that profits and wages follow the same curve? You have at least your four factors. What if the value of labour is plateauing and another value is pulling more weight?
I mean how much value can you squeeze from flipping burgers and how much from being popular: MrBeast Burger?
You would need an "irrational" pay rise of 25% for everybody in order to bring wages back in line with profits.
Even if a 25%pay raise were given across the range of those who needed it the most, their rent, groceries, insurance and other costs would increase to the point where it would render it null and useless. I watched as my parents 3.2% COLA increase in their SS payments were wiped away with subsequent increases in Medicare premiums and an increase in energy prices (propane) . And that's not even figuring in the rising costs of food and other insurance premiums that they are required to pay.
It seems that the system is setup to take advantage of people who need help the most.
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Even if a 25%pay raise were given across the range of those who needed it the most, their rent, groceries, insurance and other costs would increase to the point where it would render it null and useless. I watched as my parents 3.2% COLA increase in their SS payments were wiped away with subsequent increases in Medicare premiums and an increase in energy prices (propane) . And that's not even figuring in the rising costs of food and other insurance premiums that they are required to pay.
It seems that the system is setup to take advantage of people who need help the most.
# posted by : 13/1/24 22:54
: 13/1/24 22:54<< Home
