Newsflash: World doesn't end!

While officially the race hasn't been called yet, the result of the US elections is already very clear: Trump will be president, and he will have a majority in both houses. That is going to be unpleasant, not only for left-leaning Americans, but also for Ukrainians, Palestinians, Europeans, Chinese, and a lot of other people across the world. But in spite of all the doomsaying, neither the world nor democracy will end. So here are some more realistic thoughts on where the world is heading.

There is no denying that Donald Trump has authoritarian desires and ideas. But realistically, he won't be able to implement many of those. What he will be able to do is to a large extent stop the various lawsuits against him; there is also a good chance of that being accompanied by some smoke and mirror operation in which lawsuits against his political enemies are started. Those won't go anywhere, they would just be designed to make it appear as if all presidential candidates are equally in trouble with the law. But there is no chance that for example Trump would be able to overturn the 22nd amendment and run for a third term, or do any other change that would allow him to stay in office longer than 4 years.

In fact, the probability that Trump's term is shorter than 4 years is significant. You just need to look up actuarial tables for 78 year old men to see that. That is a problem in itself, as the US presidential election system doesn't actually make sure that the vice president is somebody that is suited or popular to become president. Vance doesn't have the same hold over the Republican party that Trump has, and most probably the death of Trump during his term would result is spectacular infighting until 2028. Well, *earlier* spectacular infighting, because that fight for 2028 in the GOP is going to happen in any case.

An estimated 3.3% or 11.7 million people in the US are "undocumented", or as Trump would call them, "illegal". But as most election promises, Trump's "mass deportations" are a lie. That is not to say that there couldn't be more deportations than before, and those will be heavily covered by media on both sides, for different reason. But no country can deport 3% of its population, the practical, legal, and economic challenges of that is simply too great. People also underestimate how significant and effective existing deportation under Biden was. The USA deported 1.1 million people in 2023, which sounds like a lot, but it less than half of the people who immigrated in the same time. Still, Immigration to the US is actually already falling significantly, and no doubt Trump will just claim that as success for himself.

What Trump most certainly also will do, is to claim that the economy miraculously recovered the minute he takes office. If economic data just stay as they are right now, Trump would brag to no end as how great a president he is for the economy. Interestingly that might actually have some effect of dealing with the "vibecession", an economy that is actually strong but perceived as being weak. The most likely economic hardship of the next Trump term is, maybe surprising to people who voted for him, more inflation. His key economic policy, lowering taxes and rising tariffs, is guaranteed to raise consumer prices. It is unclear whether Trump is even aware, or willing to address, the biggest hole in US China tariffs: You pay a tariff if you import a container full of consumer goods from China, but if Shein or Temu first pack those same consumer goods into individual packages addressed to individual customers and then put those packages in the same container, they suddenly don't have to pay tariffs anymore.

Internationally, the next 4+ years will be "America first", which is bad news for anybody who relies on US support, except possibly Israel. That undoubtedly will also result in a much diminished influence of America on the world stage. The overall result of that is unclear, as right now potential rivals, like China or Russia, aren't well placed to increase their global influence either, for different reasons. And of course, a lot of other things could go wrong globally, e.g. a larger war in the Middle East, or a Russian victory in the Ukraine.

Unbeknownst to Trump or to Americans in general, the president of the USA has a lot less influence on the future than most people think, for example they don't directly control gas prices. And even with a majority in both houses and a majority of conservative judges in the Supreme Court, a lot of the predicted doom just won't happen. A federal law prohibiting abortion in the USA is extremely unlikely, for example. And right-wing parties usually stop wanting to shrink government as soon as they control it, which makes most of Project 2025 a pipe dream. One thing you can be sure about for the next 4 years, is that both what Republicans told you what will happen and what Democrats told you what will happen if Trump wins won't happen. That is not to say that America probably missed out on a better alternative with this election, but be assured: The world doesn't end here!