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Wednesday, November 06, 2024
Newsflash: World doesn't end!
While officially the race hasn't been called yet, the result of the US elections is already very clear: Trump will be president, and he will have a majority in both houses. That is going to be unpleasant, not only for left-leaning Americans, but also for Ukrainians, Palestinians, Europeans, Chinese, and a lot of other people across the world. But in spite of all the doomsaying, neither the world nor democracy will end. So here are some more realistic thoughts on where the world is heading.
There is no denying that Donald Trump has authoritarian desires and ideas. But realistically, he won't be able to implement many of those. What he will be able to do is to a large extent stop the various lawsuits against him; there is also a good chance of that being accompanied by some smoke and mirror operation in which lawsuits against his political enemies are started. Those won't go anywhere, they would just be designed to make it appear as if all presidential candidates are equally in trouble with the law. But there is no chance that for example Trump would be able to overturn the 22nd amendment and run for a third term, or do any other change that would allow him to stay in office longer than 4 years.
In fact, the probability that Trump's term is shorter than 4 years is significant. You just need to look up actuarial tables for 78 year old men to see that. That is a problem in itself, as the US presidential election system doesn't actually make sure that the vice president is somebody that is suited or popular to become president. Vance doesn't have the same hold over the Republican party that Trump has, and most probably the death of Trump during his term would result is spectacular infighting until 2028. Well, *earlier* spectacular infighting, because that fight for 2028 in the GOP is going to happen in any case.
An estimated 3.3% or 11.7 million people in the US are "undocumented", or as Trump would call them, "illegal". But as most election promises, Trump's "mass deportations" are a lie. That is not to say that there couldn't be more deportations than before, and those will be heavily covered by media on both sides, for different reason. But no country can deport 3% of its population, the practical, legal, and economic challenges of that is simply too great. People also underestimate how significant and effective existing deportation under Biden was. The USA deported 1.1 million people in 2023, which sounds like a lot, but it less than half of the people who immigrated in the same time. Still, Immigration to the US is actually already falling significantly, and no doubt Trump will just claim that as success for himself.
What Trump most certainly also will do, is to claim that the economy miraculously recovered the minute he takes office. If economic data just stay as they are right now, Trump would brag to no end as how great a president he is for the economy. Interestingly that might actually have some effect of dealing with the "vibecession", an economy that is actually strong but perceived as being weak. The most likely economic hardship of the next Trump term is, maybe surprising to people who voted for him, more inflation. His key economic policy, lowering taxes and rising tariffs, is guaranteed to raise consumer prices. It is unclear whether Trump is even aware, or willing to address, the biggest hole in US China tariffs: You pay a tariff if you import a container full of consumer goods from China, but if Shein or Temu first pack those same consumer goods into individual packages addressed to individual customers and then put those packages in the same container, they suddenly don't have to pay tariffs anymore.
Internationally, the next 4+ years will be "America first", which is bad news for anybody who relies on US support, except possibly Israel. That undoubtedly will also result in a much diminished influence of America on the world stage. The overall result of that is unclear, as right now potential rivals, like China or Russia, aren't well placed to increase their global influence either, for different reasons. And of course, a lot of other things could go wrong globally, e.g. a larger war in the Middle East, or a Russian victory in the Ukraine.
Unbeknownst to Trump or to Americans in general, the president of the USA has a lot less influence on the future than most people think, for example they don't directly control gas prices. And even with a majority in both houses and a majority of conservative judges in the Supreme Court, a lot of the predicted doom just won't happen. A federal law prohibiting abortion in the USA is extremely unlikely, for example. And right-wing parties usually stop wanting to shrink government as soon as they control it, which makes most of Project 2025 a pipe dream. One thing you can be sure about for the next 4 years, is that both what Republicans told you what will happen and what Democrats told you what will happen if Trump wins won't happen. That is not to say that America probably missed out on a better alternative with this election, but be assured: The world doesn't end here!
- posted by Tobold @ 11:17 AM Permanent Link
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The biggest damage Trump will do is to our civil service infrastructure. His last 4 years in office saw a lot of brain drain in many government agencies that we still haven't recovered from. The stated goal of his closest advisors like Stephen Miller is to continue to force anyone not loyal to Trump out of those agencies. This will cause real harm to how those agencies run and will affect America long after his presidency.
I realize that is not something most Americans know or care about however.
I do largely agree with your take that the worst aspects of Trumps promises aren't likely to be possible even with a friendly congress. And as the number 1 issue in just about every state exit poll was the economy I don't think Trump is going to be willing to tank the economy just to follow through on campaign promises that he isn't going to be held accountable for anyway.
I imagine we will see some tariffs on certain Chinese imported items just so he can say he did something but they'll likely be loopholes large enough to not really affect most Americans.
All that being said as the resident leftist here on your blog I just want to take the time to say many leftists, including myself saw this coming. Kamala Harris made her entire campaign centered around being not Trump when America wanted her to not be Biden. This worked for Biden in 2020 because disdain for Trump was at its highest point but many of us have been saying this was a losing strategy.
I firmly believe this was the Democrats race to lose and I believe the numbers bear that out because Donald Trump only saw tiny gains and in many places even losses. Kamala under performed Biden in every area she needed to outpace him to win and proved that running to the center and shouting that you aren't Trump isn't enough to win.
I 100% think in a world where she distanced herself from Biden and made the economy and things normal people care about like gas and grocery prices her number 1 issue we would be talking about a Kamala victory right now.
I realize that is not something most Americans know or care about however.
I do largely agree with your take that the worst aspects of Trumps promises aren't likely to be possible even with a friendly congress. And as the number 1 issue in just about every state exit poll was the economy I don't think Trump is going to be willing to tank the economy just to follow through on campaign promises that he isn't going to be held accountable for anyway.
I imagine we will see some tariffs on certain Chinese imported items just so he can say he did something but they'll likely be loopholes large enough to not really affect most Americans.
All that being said as the resident leftist here on your blog I just want to take the time to say many leftists, including myself saw this coming. Kamala Harris made her entire campaign centered around being not Trump when America wanted her to not be Biden. This worked for Biden in 2020 because disdain for Trump was at its highest point but many of us have been saying this was a losing strategy.
I firmly believe this was the Democrats race to lose and I believe the numbers bear that out because Donald Trump only saw tiny gains and in many places even losses. Kamala under performed Biden in every area she needed to outpace him to win and proved that running to the center and shouting that you aren't Trump isn't enough to win.
I 100% think in a world where she distanced herself from Biden and made the economy and things normal people care about like gas and grocery prices her number 1 issue we would be talking about a Kamala victory right now.
Just to add to my last point. The latest numbers I've seen suggest that 14 million democrats stayed home this election. If that isn't a damning message that running to the center and ignoring the progressive base doesn't work then I don't know what else is.
For all of Donald Trumps faults his campaign has always been laser focused on bringing out his base.
For 3 Presedential elections in a row Democrats have swung hard to the right after the primary and I think it's clear now 2020 was the outlier and that strategy is a losing one. People want to vote for their candidate, not vote against the other party.
For all of Donald Trumps faults his campaign has always been laser focused on bringing out his base.
For 3 Presedential elections in a row Democrats have swung hard to the right after the primary and I think it's clear now 2020 was the outlier and that strategy is a losing one. People want to vote for their candidate, not vote against the other party.
Immigration will fall even if Trump does nothing. The reality is that the Democrats are perceived worldwide as holding the door open, and would-be immigrants respond to that.
Absolutely true. In fact we saw this both when Trump won in 2016 and then when Biden won in 2020. There are literally interviews in 2020 of migrants saying this.
Biden was “talking softly, but carrying a big stick” on immigration. Trump is talking a lot louder, and I refuse to comment on the size of his stick. :)
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