Thursday, November 14, 2024

Trump destroys board games

As satire doesn't travel well on the internet, I'd like to remark that the title of this post is deliberately done in a click-baity style for humorous reasons. But there is a kernel of truth in there, and to understand that, we need to discuss how crowdfunding of board games works.

How much does a $100 crowdfunding board game cost? Obviously a trick question, and the answer is: It depends; mostly on where you live. The $100 pledge level of a crowdfunded game doesn't include shipping, nor does it include any applicable taxes. In the early days of Kickstarter, there were still board game crowdfunding projects that got away with not paying value added / sales tax. Crowdfunding projects still insist that you aren't actually "buying" anything, you pledge monetary support to the development of a game, and then get a copy of the game as "reward". Tax authorities weren't fooled very long by that charade, and by now it is very clear that sales taxes, like the EU value added tax, apply fully to Kickstarter projects. In a transition period some companies just raised the sticker price, but as sales taxes differ a lot from state to state and country to country, taxes are now usually paid together with shipping cost. So when you pledge $100 for a board game, you might very well pay another $20 for shipping, and if you live in Europe another 20% of VAT. As VAT is applied to both the game and the shipping cost, you end up paying another $44 when the pledge manager opens.

So where does Trump get into this? Trump's main economic policy is based on tariffs, he plans to install a blanket tariff of 10% to 20% on all imports, with additional tariffs of 60% to 100% on goods brought in from China. Now large board game companies producing mostly retail games often have their own production facilities, and those can be in their home country. But the overwhelming majority of small board game companies that produce crowdfunded games don't have any production facilities, but outsource the production of the games to China.

If you back a game on Kickstarter or Gamefound now, it might very well have an estimated delivery date of late 2025. And crowdfunding projects are often late, so it could very well be that the pledge manager only opens in 2026. Now imagine the US customer who pledged $100 for a board game, expecting to pay only $30 for shipping and sales tax, but finds he has to pay another $100 for the China tariff in addition to that. That is going to cause quite an uproar. Very quickly new crowdfunding projects will be required to mention the tariffs in the shipping & delivery section of their project. And once US customers realize that a $100 crowdfunded board game costs them $230, demand will shrink rapidly. The problem for people living elsewhere is that the US accounts for two thirds of pledges on Kickstarter. If tariffs keeps US customers away, the remaining pledges from the rest of the world might not be enough to make the crowdfunding project viable. Some games simply won't be produced at all.

The purpose of tariffs is to encourage manufacturing to the US. The small board game companies that live of crowdfunded projects don't have the capital to build up their own manufacturing capacity. It is possible that US companies will develop which manufacture board games for others. But that sure won't happen very fast. There are other Asian countries that might actually benefit more from the China tariffs, as making a board game in let's say Thailand with a 10% to 20% tariff might still be cheaper than producing it in the USA. Given the length of a typical crowdfunding board game project, it will take years before all of this settles down into a new equilibrium. Until then, there is some pain ahead for small crowdfunding board game companies and their customers.

7 comments:

  1. I forgot to mention that there is currently a loophole in US tariff law, called "de minimis", which allows for individual packages of a value below $800 to enter the US tariff-free. With that loophole being already very much exploited by companies like Temu and Shein, even the current administration is already trying to close that possibility. But theoretically, until the loophole is closed, it would be possible for a board game crowdfunding project to change distribution and get the parcels delivered to individual customers directly from China. Which would be a bit more expensive, but not 100% more expensive.

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  2. That's a good moment to pivot from huge boxes with tons of minis to print and play games. In this case you would only pay for pdf, cutting out delivery costs.

    Sure, many modern board games would be hard to DIY, but that's exactly because overproduced components were incentivized by current conditions. If the game is designed for print and play, you wouldn't need much components anyway.

    Dozens of thick cardboard tiles used to make a random map could be replaced by a randomzier app that generates a single sheet to print . Meeples, tokens, and dice can be bought once (maybe as a standardized set) and reused for different games, no need to manufacture and deliver similar components for each board game. As a result, getting a new game to your table might become ten times cheaper.

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  3. Give a thought to how this effect is multiplied exponentially by other industries and goods. As a US resident, I'm extremely nervous about the overall effect on the US/World economy, especially given Trump's announced appointees to cabinet and policy positions. Should be a wild ride...

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  4. ”given Trump's announced appointees to cabinet and policy positions”
    I’m seeing all those announcements and wonder why Democrats aren’t more happy about them. I mean, these are obviously incomptent Trump flunkies. Isn’t it *good* that they are incompetent, given that we don’t like the policies they want to implement?

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    1. Yeah his cabinet is shaping up to be even more dysfunctional than in his first term. It's no wonder he is trying to get Republicans to agree to a Senate Recess because even he knows some of his picks will have trouble getting confirmed if they have to have Senate Hearings.

      On the board game topic do you think manufacturers will move operations to Thailand, Phillipines, etc? I know many industries have been leaving China anyway both because of tariffs but also because labour in China isn't as cheap as it used to be.

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    2. While the chance for serious schadenfreude exists, the possible serious impact on many aspects of daily life and the economy make it difficult to take much satisfaction in watching what could be the biggest train wreck in US history. It's probably better for the US if the experts (and dems) are all wrong and Trump's choices are a spectacular success. I'm not optimistic...

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  5. At the Spiel in Essen there was one hall which wasn’t overcrowded with players, and that was the “business to business” hall with the various Asian companies making board games. And I remember distinctly one large stand from Thailand. But no idea how many non-Chinese companies are in this market.

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