Tobold's Blog
Sunday, April 06, 2025
 
Changing the economic world order

Since 1944, the United States of America dictate the economic world order. First with the Bretton Woods accord, and then with the neoliberal economics that Ronald Reagan introduced with the help of Margaret Thatcher. It seems that change is due about every 40 years, and so now Trump heralded the next economic world order, one of deglobalization. Can that even work?

Now it has to be remarked that the globalization and free trade was not an unmitigated force for good. It created a lot of wealth, but that wealth is very unevenly distributed. Free flow of capital means that capital has a distinct advantage over labor, which can't move that easily. Thus of the newly created wealth, a smaller and smaller part went to the people who produced the goods and provided the services, while an increasingly large part went to the people who financed the companies, the investors and shareholders. Thus at least theoretically, deglobalization could also reverse some of those bad effects, and strengthen the negotiation power of workers.

On the other hand, it isn't obvious that the US is still able to dictate the economic world order to everybody else. They control about a quarter of the global economy by GDP, but less than 10% of global trade, due to increased trade between developing and emerging markets. And while the headlines talk about a "global" trade war, it is obvious that this concerns only trade between the US and everybody else, not the trade between the other countries. If the US doesn't buy the goods of the world anymore, and can't sell their good to them either because of high tariffs, trade between everybody else will rise instead. America not wanting to play nice with others anymore doesn't mean the others can't play with each other. Unilateral deglobalization could turn the US into a much bigger and much richer version of North Korea, but with declining wealth and power compared to the rest of the world.

There are strategic reasons why the US might want to crash foreign imports. Historically, in case of war, countries with a lot of manufacturing factories could easily retool those to produce military goods. It is why the North won the Civil War over the South, or why the USA won World War II. A factory that makes trucks, can make military vehicles, maybe even tanks after retooling. If all US truck factories move to China, America would be in a bad situation if war with China breaks out one day. Apple shares are down 13% in the last 5 days, due to 80% of Apple's production being in China and thus now threatened severely by those tariffs. It isn't obvious that Apple could move that production to the USA, even if they wanted to. At best it would take many years, and billions of dollars. But the more likely scenario has already started a while ago, with Apple trying to better distribute their production away from China, and towards countries like India or Vietnam. A company trying to bring back manufacturing to the USA would have a high risk of either Trump changing his mind on particular tariffs, or there simply being a very different administration in 4 years that doesn't believe in deglobalization that much. Growth of US manufacturing would also be limited by labor shortages, especially if America simultaneously expels millions of immigrants.

Funnily enough, deglobalization might simply fail politically, due to the undue influence that rich people have on US politics. Globalization made these people rich, deglobalization threatens their wealth. The last thing they want is tariffs kicking off a wage-price spiral of inflation, combined with a recession. And poorer people hate inflation too, which is what brought the previous administration down. The potential positive effects of higher tariffs won't manifest for some time, possibly not even in Trump's lifetime. The economic pain will come quickly, and weigh heavily on the next elections. Trump said that "there are methods" for him to run for a third term, but even if that was right, he still would have to be elected. "It's the economy, stupid" and "Are you better off than you were 4 years ago?" are still what determines US elections. Changing the economic world order takes decades, if it is still possible at all, and right now it isn't clear that there is actually a majority that wants this.

Comments:
I support increasing the US manufacturing base. I always thought it was a bad idea to outsource as much manufacturing as we did for varied reasons. However, the way that this is being handled is extremely poor. It feels like a self-inflicted wound or domestic violence. Ostracizing the world isn't going to lead to anything positive. I cannot believe the turmoil that these decisions have already cost me personally.

This is all severely depressing.
 
Like you touched on this isn't a global trade war so much as a globe vs US trade war. If these tariffs remain long term I foresee countries seeking work around to US centric trade.

This will result in further erosion of US soft power and in my opinion set up China to be the world's economic leader.

When the choice is between US extortion and uncertainty versus Chinese belts and roads I think even many western countries will choose China.

We are already seeing Canada working directly with other western nations and cutting the US out trade talks. The future for the US economy looks bleak.
 
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