Tobold's Blog
Thursday, May 08, 2025
 
Release roulette

In 2023, Bethesda released Starfield, to a mixed reception by the audience. Originally, Baldur's Gate 3 had been planned to have nearly the same release date as Starfield, but Larian Studios advanced the release of BG3 by a month. It is hard to say how much the huge success of Baldur's Gate 3 and the comparison with that game ultimately hurt Starfield, but I guess that Bethesda wasn't happy. This year, Bethesda released Oblivion Remastered in a "shadow drop", that is to say without announcing the release date beforehand. That in turn hurt other games released around the same time, although the publisher of Expedition 33 said that it didn't. In other release news, GTA 6 went from a badly defined "Fall 2025" release date to a more precise May 26, 2026, to the huge relief of everybody wanting to release a game in Fall 2025, and the chagrin of those who planned to release their game in 2026.

There are too many games released every year. The price at release for these games is rising, now moving towards $80 for triple A titles. Meanwhile disposable incomes are falling due inflation, tariffs, and a global cost of living crisis. Which means that increasingly releasing big video games is a zero sum game. In May 2026, a lot of people will think that GTA 6 is a must-have game, and will therefore not buy other games around that time, because they simply can't afford it. More and more game releases will be affected by similar games releasing around the same time, and the relative success or expectation of success of those.

Hard data will be impossible to come by. How many people exactly didn't buy game A this month, because they bought game B around the same time? We can only speculate. But between rising console prices, rising game prices, and an ever increasing number of games released every year, it isn't hard to see that we are approaching a breaking point. And games (unlike their hardware) are a business that isn't even affected by tariffs yet, although the recent move to tariff movies doesn't bode well. I don't think that the wave of layoffs from 2022 to 2025 is over yet.

- posted by Tobold @ 6:30 AM Permanent Link
Comments:
It's not even necessarily about money, time alone is enough. I occasionally get into discussions about which games I have and haven't played back in the 90s that are absolute classics today and my younger colleagues are baffled why I haven't played many of them. The answer is simple: When those were released I was busy playing other great games, and things haven't gotten easier in that department over the years. I might spend less time per game today, but I also have a lot more commitments and thus, time to play.
# posted by Blogger Kiseran : 8/5/25 10:35
 
It might be a problem for the producers but it isn't a problem for the consumers, or it should't be. Just make some choices. Pick the ones you want to play, play those, move on. No-one on the planet was ever able to do all the things there were to be done, even when there were arguably many fewer things. And if the result of people making better, more informed choices is that fewer games (Movies, Books, whatever...) get made then it's a virtuous circle.
# posted by Blogger Bhagpuss : 8/5/25 11:18
 
The timing of a game release is as important as whether the game is good in the first place. We have plenty examples of games well received by critics and players yet they release in the shadow of some giant blockbuster game and die because of it. In some cases it kills of the entire franchise like Titanfall 2.
# posted by Blogger Bigeye : 8/5/25 14:21
 
Another trend that affects this is that good games seem to last longer than they ever used to, at least the type I play. I notice I've spent several hundred hours on multiple games over the last couple of years, which used to be the rare exception, not the rule. These are all large turn-based RPGs, and I'm slow.
# posted by Blogger Perkus : 8/5/25 21:11
 
This comment has been removed by the author.
# posted by Blogger Yeebo : 9/5/25 01:30
 
Time is my issue way more than cost. I have never minded waiting a yrea or two to play something if it means I get a game and all of it's expansions for $20 instead of $60-120.

I am sure I already own enough games to never need to buy a new one again. Especially on PC, Steam bundles and random giveaways of old games to get you to install a new platform (like Epic) really add up after a while if you are diligent about collecting everything that may interest you.

However, lately I have been getting access to more free stuff on Android as well. The games I can access for free with my Netflix sub alone are well beyond extensive.
# posted by Blogger Yeebo : 9/5/25 01:38
 
It’s interesting - I have decided to get out of the race this year and have a goal not to buy any new games in 2025. It’s going super well! I have found depth in games that I hadn’t yet, playing into BG3, and overall enjoying what I have rather than keep up with the cult of the new.
# posted by Blogger Baelnor : 11/5/25 14:18
 
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