Tobold's Blog
Tuesday, January 27, 2026
 
Protests and political violence

Sometimes I regret that I stuck with outdated medium of blogging, and never made the move to creating video content on YouTube. Right now, I could make a great video overlaying footage of the events of the killing of Ashli Babbit with politicians and officials making comments about the killing of Alex Pretti, and vice versa. The reality of things is that one man's freedom fighter is another man's domestic terrorist, and what politicians say about a person's action depend mostly on which "side" that person is on, more than on what that person actually did.

The second amendment of the US constitution says that "A well regulated Militia, being necessary to the security of a free State, the right of the people to keep and bear Arms, shall not be infringed." That is in obvious contradiction of the state's monopoly on the legal use of force. At what point exactly does a crowd of armed civilians become a well regulated militia? Several of the January 6th protesters were charged with carrying firearms, so right wing politicians suggesting right now that protesters don't have the right to carry arms sounds very hypocritical.

Not that I believe that the protesters in Minnesota have a lot of moral superiority here. What they are protesting against is after all a legal law enforcement operation. A flawed law enforcement operation, certainly. But if one day the French police would decide to go to the Banlieu of Paris to arrest everybody there with an outstanding warrant, the scenes on the street would resemble very much what we are seeing in Minneapolis.

The underlying problem is a decade long lack of political courage from both sides. An estimated 14 million people, or 4% of the population of the US, is illegal immigrants, with many of them living in America for many years, even decades. I consider both possible views as politically valid: Either illegal immigrants should be pardoned and turned into legal citizens by some pathway, or they should be deported. Instead, politicians went with I call the cannabis approach: Keeping a widespread reality illegal on paper, but deciding not to let law enforcement take care of it.

A number of studies have shown that once you correct for socio-economic factors like poverty, immigrants are no more likely to be criminals than natives. There are millions of immigrants in the US whose only crime is to have entered the country illegally. The incarceration rate of the US is at around 0.6%, and that is one of the highest in the world. No state can have 4% of its population living outside the law. You end up in situations where people are "technically" illegal, but still pay taxes, and have driving licences. That is pretty stupid.

What needs to happen, and what is happening in many other countries, is that there is some sort of administrative procedure, even if it takes years, by which it is decided whether somebody can stay in the country, or whether he has to leave. The US has made it difficult on itself by sleeping on that, and accumulating the problem. Even if the administrative procedure would just cost $1,000, multiplied by 14 million that ends up being 14 billion dollars. And for $1,000 you probably only get a not very thorough check, where some decisions are arguably wrong, one way or another. But make the check more thorough, and it will cost even more, and take even longer. Germany currently has 175,000 administrative procedure deciding on asylum seekers, and it already takes a full year for each; the exact cost is unknown, but the "on paper" cost per procedure is €5,000. Now multiply that problem by two orders of magnitude, and you can see the size of the accumulated problem the US faces.

It would probably be a lot faster and cheaper to work with a general pardon and accelerated citizenship procedures for all illegal immigrants, but that option is politically difficult. America's politicians are doing their utmost to avoid American realizing that the US has a class problem, and so immigrants are a convenient scapegoat for low wages. Not to mention that illegal workers are potentially cheaper than legal ones, and can be denied various rights.

There is a lot of hypocrisy here on both sides. The left favors making illegal immigrants legal, while the right favors deporting them, but neither side has done very much about it in the past decades. So now we are at a point where a right-wing government enforcing existing law, admittedly heavy-handed, is seen by left-wing protesters as fascist. And even this heavy-handed approach in 2025 led only to about 400k deportations, which is potentially not even enough to keep the number of illegal immigrants in the US from growing. The solution proposed by the left, defunding ICE instead of solving the legal limbo problem of the illegal immigrants, isn't much better than the approach of the Trump administration. You can't have a rule of law based on non-enforcement of existing laws; laws that don't work or are considered unjust need to be changed, not ignored. 

Comments:
You've succinctly described why many on the left detest the Democratic party and refer to them as controlled opposition. To further add to what you said let's remember Democrats had a full 2 years under Obama, who promised immigration reform, to do something about the issue and they ultimately kept the status quo. The Neo-Liberal wing of the Democratic party are not all that different from the Classical "Moderate" Republican and thus are just as beholden to corporate interests and having millions of undocumented workers that can be exploited benefits corporations. Giving them a path to citizenship is not in the interest of these corporate donors nor is deporting all of them, which is why Trumps mass deportation quickly abandoned going into certain areas.

Immigration reform was popular even back in the Obama years amongst all Americans and yet nothing happened. Even last year as Trump was talking about Haitians eating peoples pets, when folks on both sides were polled the issue remained popular.

One positive of all this is that more Americans are now actively seeking alternatives to both parties which might result in us finally shifting the Democratic party left, and those leftists having real power, instead of our current situation where both parties act like right leaning parties but the Democrats pay lip service to leftists ideals.

I could quibble on some of the stuff you said here, namely how a lot of what ICE is doing isnt legal at all, but I wont.
 
To give a concrete anecdote on how corporations exploit this labor and how now even under Trump and his calls for mass deportation the government protects it let's look at a hotel and resort company called Westgate. They are a resort and timeshare company worth billions who operate a bunch of vacation resorts in my state of Florida.

Everyone here knows they contract undocumented immigrants for the majority of their labor, from laundry, to cleaning and janitorial and even front desk staff. To get around labor laws here what they do is contract out to these smaller independent companies who then in turn higher undocumented immigrants. So technically Westgate doesnt hire any of these folks.

These smaller companies will often shut down and reform under new names every so often in order to avoid regulations themselves. This is how Westgate Resorts fills its labor needs.

Everyone who lives near a Westgate resort and knows people who work there knows this. I personally know multiple undocumented people that have worked there. They even bring in things like check cashing vans on paydays so immigrants can cash their checks on property since many dont have bank accounts. Its the worst kept secret.

Now guess how many ICE raids there have been at Westgate Resorts. If you guessed Zero, you were correct.
 
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Tobold: "A number of studies have shown that once you correct for socio-economic factors like poverty, immigrants are no more likely to be criminals than natives."

Which sounds nice on paper but fails to acknowledge reality.
Because how many immigrants ARE actually poor compared to natives?
It is rather pointless to say that poor immigrants and natives are equally criminal - when the chance to be poor as a native is rather slim while one of the main motivations for immigrants is poverty.
 
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