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Monday, January 19, 2026
Waking Europe
From an American perspective, especially when combined with a lack of historical knowledge, it is easy to consider Europe as some sort of has-been power. Europe is clearly playing second fiddle in the NATO alliance, and doesn't throw its weight around internationally like the US does. Once you study European history a bit more, and especially post-war history, a more nuanced picture becomes clear: European weakness is by choice, and part of a post-war deal with America. Europe has tried imperialism, colonialism, and nationalism, and they all actually didn't work out that well for them. America offered a deal, in which it offered security in exchange for Europe neither joining the communists, nor trying to become an independent superpower. Europe, disillusioned by two world wars, accepted the deal. The post-war decolonization made Europe even happier to leave the job as world police to the US.
Voluntary weakness isn't the same as structural weakness. Change the conditions, remove security guarantees, add security challenges from both Russia and America, and with sufficient prodding, Europe will wake up. It will take some time, decades, and at first Europe will concentrate on being able to defend itself without help, rather than being able to project power to other continents. But Europe has nuclear missiles, and enough population, money, industry, and science to grow its military significantly. Europe is weak out of a belief that military strength isn't terribly useful anymore; shattering that belief will probably have unintended consequences. European powers were global superpowers for centuries, and that was with them fighting each other constantly. External threats could accelerate European unification / collaboration and remilitarization to a point where it would easily surpass Russia, and rival the US and China as a global superpower. Europe is weak because its military spending as percentage of GDP is small; raise that to 1938 levels, and Europe is suddenly bristling with guns.
The Trump administration despises Europe, and hates international treaties. To me that suggests they don't understand what a treaty like NATO actually was made for, and how much it actually favors the US who dictated those treaties. Turning Europe from their most loyal ally into their rival isn't going to make America great again. If anything, it diminishes American capacity to project power globally.
- posted by Tobold @ 1:38 PM Permanent Link
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As a french, I disagree on the "we accept to weaken ourselves" : France has always think itself stronger that it is.
But I never understood the positions of other western europe countries. Why do they accept to not use their wealth to defend themselves by themselves ? Why accept US as their sole protector ? ( Eastern Europe was easier : they are near a big bad guy, they want a big bad guy on their side)
So thanks for this post, as it make me understand a little better what was ( still is ?) the consensus.
But I never understood the positions of other western europe countries. Why do they accept to not use their wealth to defend themselves by themselves ? Why accept US as their sole protector ? ( Eastern Europe was easier : they are near a big bad guy, they want a big bad guy on their side)
So thanks for this post, as it make me understand a little better what was ( still is ?) the consensus.
# posted by 
: 19/1/26 14:05
: 19/1/26 14:05
I think that being able to forgo participating in an arms race and being able to focus on improving the lives of your own people is reason enough to accept being beneath the umbrella of another country's overspending on its military.
Now we're seeing that the US is a friend to nobody, not even itself. And I say this as a US citizen.
Now we're seeing that the US is a friend to nobody, not even itself. And I say this as a US citizen.
Tobold: "Europe has [...] enough population [...]"
Does it? Last I heard was that the populace was ageing and refilled with migrants?
"European powers were global superpowers for centuries [...]"
when there were no other global superpowers.
"[...] rival [...] China as a global superpower"
Nobody will rival China in anything as long as all the crap is being manufactured over there.
"[...] raise that to 1938 levels, and Europe is suddenly bristling with guns."
Yeah, not European guns though: "The Russians out, the Americans in, and the Germans down."
Germany restarting the war machine will be the fastest call for de-unification and foreign boots across Europe. Countries are fine with being under the economic thumb of Germany, but when that changes to the heel, it will be 1938 again.
Does it? Last I heard was that the populace was ageing and refilled with migrants?
"European powers were global superpowers for centuries [...]"
when there were no other global superpowers.
"[...] rival [...] China as a global superpower"
Nobody will rival China in anything as long as all the crap is being manufactured over there.
"[...] raise that to 1938 levels, and Europe is suddenly bristling with guns."
Yeah, not European guns though: "The Russians out, the Americans in, and the Germans down."
Germany restarting the war machine will be the fastest call for de-unification and foreign boots across Europe. Countries are fine with being under the economic thumb of Germany, but when that changes to the heel, it will be 1938 again.
Actually, the other European powers cheered when Germany last year removed the debt break for military spending.
They also cheered in the 30s when the focus was oriented towards the East.
To their horror the Blitzkrieg swung faster into their direction than they thought.
Not that I believe that to be a realistic scenario as it is too obvious and the world would be twitching and overreacting at the slightest hint.
And Germany has no reason to opt for military superiority when they are already holding the economic control through various means.
Increasing the military spending is helpful for the economy though.
To their horror the Blitzkrieg swung faster into their direction than they thought.
Not that I believe that to be a realistic scenario as it is too obvious and the world would be twitching and overreacting at the slightest hint.
And Germany has no reason to opt for military superiority when they are already holding the economic control through various means.
Increasing the military spending is helpful for the economy though.
Tobold you clearly dont understand. This is all a genius 5D strategy by Trump to finally get Europe to increase its defense spending and protect critical Artic gateways like Greenland.... is the type of insane babbling Im seeing from Trump supporters right now.
I think you are underestimating the union between Europe countries and the military industry in Europe. Europe is already manufacturing any existing war asset : plane, boat, gun, tank, missile, missile defense, nuclear submarine, nuclear weapon, satellite etc...
The scale is low but it is far easier to ramp-up an existing production that to create a new industry.
It is true that the IS defense industry dwarf any other countries, and especially on exports, but it does not means other industries does not exist and cannot be scaled.
The scale is low but it is far easier to ramp-up an existing production that to create a new industry.
It is true that the IS defense industry dwarf any other countries, and especially on exports, but it does not means other industries does not exist and cannot be scaled.
# posted by : 20/1/26 11:49
: 20/1/26 11:49
But it means being unable to do anything when they suddenly pressure you to do something - even against the need and desire of your population.
Until now European Union has used the weight of its complex administration as a shield against US pressure - at the cost of losing face.
Until now European Union has used the weight of its complex administration as a shield against US pressure - at the cost of losing face.
# posted by : 20/1/26 11:56
: 20/1/26 11:56
I was hoping Trump would be like his first term (which wasn’t great) but he is really desperate to go down as a historical villain. He’s about as anti-American in behavior as I could imagine. The fact that he is leading us into conflict with people that we’ve had decades of peace with is stunning.
The US is basically setting it's position as a global leader on fire becuase . . .trans peaple bad or something. We are making sure we will no longer be trusted as the leader of NATO and pretty much ensuring that the dollar won't be the default global reserve currency in ten years.
Most Americans have no idea how much of an economic and security benefit those things have been, but we are all about to find out the really f-ing stupid way.
Most Americans have no idea how much of an economic and security benefit those things have been, but we are all about to find out the really f-ing stupid way.
Yes and No.
Yes : We know there are a lot of US citizen that opposes Trump politics, but he has still been elected for a second time by the majority of US citizen. We know his politics is supported by a large minority of americans, even after all this. Even if he lose the next elections, ( if they happen) he will still be a threat.
No : Europeans countries have been mistreated multiple times by the US, both Trump and previous president, but our elites are always in hurry to forgive them.
Yes : We know there are a lot of US citizen that opposes Trump politics, but he has still been elected for a second time by the majority of US citizen. We know his politics is supported by a large minority of americans, even after all this. Even if he lose the next elections, ( if they happen) he will still be a threat.
No : Europeans countries have been mistreated multiple times by the US, both Trump and previous president, but our elites are always in hurry to forgive them.
# posted by : 21/1/26 10:37
: 21/1/26 10:37
A solid 35-40% of Americans dont vote at all. Presidents only need about 30% of the voting age population to win and that's pretty much exactly what Trump won with.
That also correlates to basically the same support he has right now. About 30% of the population.
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That also correlates to basically the same support he has right now. About 30% of the population.
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