Tobold's Blog
Monday, January 19, 2026
 
Waking Europe

From an American perspective, especially when combined with a lack of historical knowledge, it is easy to consider Europe as some sort of has-been power. Europe is clearly playing second fiddle in the NATO alliance, and doesn't throw its weight around internationally like the US does. Once you study European history a bit more, and especially post-war history, a more nuanced picture becomes clear: European weakness is by choice, and part of a post-war deal with America. Europe has tried imperialism, colonialism, and nationalism, and they all actually didn't work out that well for them. America offered a deal, in which it offered security in exchange for Europe neither joining the communists, nor trying to become an independent superpower. Europe, disillusioned by two world wars, accepted the deal. The post-war decolonization made Europe even happier to leave the job as world police to the US.

Voluntary weakness isn't the same as structural weakness. Change the conditions, remove security guarantees, add security challenges from both Russia and America, and with sufficient prodding, Europe will wake up. It will take some time, decades, and at first Europe will concentrate on being able to defend itself without help, rather than being able to project power to other continents. But Europe has nuclear missiles, and enough population, money, industry, and science to grow its military significantly. Europe is weak out of a belief that military strength isn't terribly useful anymore; shattering that belief will probably have unintended consequences. European powers were global superpowers for centuries, and that was with them fighting each other constantly. External threats could accelerate European unification / collaboration and remilitarization to a point where it would easily surpass Russia, and rival the US and China as a global superpower. Europe is weak because its military spending as percentage of GDP is small; raise that to 1938 levels, and Europe is suddenly bristling with guns.

The Trump administration despises Europe, and hates international treaties. To me that suggests they don't understand what a treaty like NATO actually was made for, and how much it actually favors the US who dictated those treaties. Turning Europe from their most loyal ally into their rival isn't going to make America great again. If anything, it diminishes American capacity to project power globally.

Comments:
As a french, I disagree on the "we accept to weaken ourselves" : France has always think itself stronger that it is.

But I never understood the positions of other western europe countries. Why do they accept to not use their wealth to defend themselves by themselves ? Why accept US as their sole protector ? ( Eastern Europe was easier : they are near a big bad guy, they want a big bad guy on their side)

So thanks for this post, as it make me understand a little better what was ( still is ?) the consensus.
 
I think that being able to forgo participating in an arms race and being able to focus on improving the lives of your own people is reason enough to accept being beneath the umbrella of another country's overspending on its military.

Now we're seeing that the US is a friend to nobody, not even itself. And I say this as a US citizen.
 
Tobold: "Europe has [...] enough population [...]"
Does it? Last I heard was that the populace was ageing and refilled with migrants?

"European powers were global superpowers for centuries [...]"
when there were no other global superpowers.

"[...] rival [...] China as a global superpower"
Nobody will rival China in anything as long as all the crap is being manufactured over there.

"[...] raise that to 1938 levels, and Europe is suddenly bristling with guns."
Yeah, not European guns though: "The Russians out, the Americans in, and the Germans down."
Germany restarting the war machine will be the fastest call for de-unification and foreign boots across Europe. Countries are fine with being under the economic thumb of Germany, but when that changes to the heel, it will be 1938 again.
 
Actually, the other European powers cheered when Germany last year removed the debt break for military spending.
 
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