So if you watch US White House news for entertainment, I have good news for you: The next 3 years are going to be full of spectacular drama. I think most people would agree that Donald Trump is not a particularly nice person, with his supporters pointing out that being nice isn't a qualification for the office of president of the United States. But while Trump's behavior can sometimes seem erratic, we know enough of his personality to allow us to predict things: Donald Trump doesn't like losing, and he tends to get particularly nasty and lashes out when things aren't going his way. And while all predictions of the future are highly uncertain, the predictive tools we do have say that Trump will face a series of major losses in the coming years. Which then almost certainly will trigger even more nastiness and lashing out, making for highly entertaining drama, if it wasn't also negatively affecting the lives of many people.

In 1525, Machiavelli wrote in his Florentine Histories: "Wars begin when you will, but they do not end when you please.". Five centuries later Donald Trump wrote on Truth Social: "Open the Fuckin’ Strait, you crazy bastards, or you’ll be living in Hell — JUST WATCH.". Which is basically him slowly realizing the same truth that Machiavelli wrote. It is almost certain that the next step for the US will be committing a series of war crimes by destroying civilian infrastructure to increase pressure on Iran. Politically speaking, Donald Trump is losing the Iran war, in the sense that the war is hurting him more politically than it helps him. And there is no realistic path forward for him to politically win this war anymore, as that would require the Iranian regime to voluntarily give up, which they never will. Whether you prefer the version of British Field Marshal Montgomery or the version in The Princess Bride, "Never get involved in a land war in Asia" remains true, and there are limits to what you can achieve with a pure air and naval war. There are no good options here, and all signs point to the damage already having been done being hard to reverse, with serious consequences for the global economy, especially with regards to inflation.

The self-inflicted timing is particularly unfortunate for Donald Trump, as this presages another major loss this year: The midterm elections. In as far as prediction markets aren't just thinly disguised gambling, but have actual predictive power, the midterm elections will go very well for the Democrats, through no fault of their own. Kalshi currently even predicts Democrats to win the senate, an outcome practically unthinkable just a few months ago. Chance of the Democrats winning the house, according to Kalshi, 86%. While I usually ridicule American voters for holding their president responsible for gas prices at the pump, this time they actually have a point. And exploding prices for fertilizer during this spring will almost certainly lead to inflation in grocery stores in the autumn, which is very bad news for Republicans. I am also highly sceptical of Donald Trump's current attempts to turn the midterm elections around by restricting access to voting; that idea comes from a past age, where it was presumed that poorer people and minorities vote Democrat, so restricting their access to voting helps Republicans. But that "demographic destiny to win for the Democrats" has turned out to be an illusion, and today it isn't obvious whether voting restrictions aren't hurting lower-income white, rural, or non-college-educated demographics who vote Republican as much as any Democratic voters.

Compared to previous presidents, Donald Trump has very much ruled by executive orders, with a friendly congress just keeping quiet about it. Presumably, for the second half of his term in 2027 and 2028, Donald Trump will face a hostile congress. It doesn't take a genius to predict that he won't like that. While he is unpredictable in the sense that we don't know how he will lash out, it is certain that he will lash out. Lame duck president Trump will cause a lot of drama over the coming years. There will also be some entertaining drama regarding his succession. And, unless they nominate Kamala Harris (which they might be stupid enough to do), the Democrats are going to win the presidential elections in 2028, simply by default.

So that is my prediction for the coming years: Donald Trump will have a series of major losses, and in reaction he will lash out and do some more "unprecedented" dramatic stuff. If that was a TV series, I would predict rising ratings. But as the outcome of all that drama in the real world is probably going to be bad news for many people, I would recommend to strap in for a bumpy ride.