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Wednesday, September 16, 2026
The demographics of voting
Once upon a time, which is to say before Trump got elected for the first time, there was a narrative of demographic inevitability in America. Many people believed that minorities would always vote for the Democrats, and that demographic trends would result in Republicans getting stuck with an ever dwindling voter base. Even the Republicans believed that, which is why they went for a strategy of making voting as hard as possible: Rich white people were believed to be able to overcome obstacles to voting better than poor black people.
A decade of elections since 2016 has pretty much disproved that model. Lots of voters from minorities voted for Trump. And Trumps most solid voter base might still be white, but also rural and often poor. So when I see the latest headlines of Trump still trying to keep people from voting, I wonder if he is just acting out of old habits, or whether Republican strategists calculated that this would still be advantageous. I could well imagine a situation where for example restrictions on voting by mail keep more rural voters from voting than urban voters, and that wouldn’t be to the Republican’s advantage.
Unfortunately that is one of these more on the ground things that are extremely hard to judge when you live on a different continent, even if you watch US news every day and keep up with politics. In none of the European countries I lived in it was possible to vote without your government-issued photo ID card, and these days that card even has biometric features. In Belgium either that ID card or a government app called ItsMe linked to that ID card is used for bloody everything. I get prescription drugs by showing my ID card at the pharmacy, I interact with authorities like tax or pensions by identifying either with the ID card or ItsMe, and even banks in Belgium now use ItsMe for online banking. Makes it a bit hard for me to judge how much of an obstacle showing a photo ID is for an American.
- posted by Tobold @ 9:39 PM Permanent Link
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The problem with ID's is a very American one. ID requirements vary state by state and in many states it's an onerous process to get a state license or ID if you aren't the typical person with a static residential address and ready access to things like your Birth Certificate or SSN. Right now in my state, in a hypothetical scenario where say my house burns down with all my documents in it, in order for me to get a new Florida License I would need to first secure my birth certificate or Social Security card. I need a birth certificate or ID to get my SSN card so that option is ruled out. That leaves me with getting my birth certificate from Puerto Rico. Without a form of ID that is a whole ordeal on its own that would necessitate me flying there and showing up in person. How would I fly to Puerto Rico without an ID? Not sure. Assuming I did find a way to fly there and procure my Birth certificate I could then make an appointment at my local DMV and apply for a new copy of my license. Now with our current voter system I had to already show ID when I registered to vote so in this hypothetical scenario even without ID I would be able to show up at the polls, give my name and some relevant information and if it matched what is on voter rolls I would be able to vote.
America could easily solve this problem of course by issuing a nation-wide ID at free or low cost with one uniform application process for receiving one. If America did this I would then support voter ID at the polls. But seeing as how many Americans would react to something like that as if the Devil himself was descending on earth that will likely never happen.
About the minority thing, the only people who think minorities are one giant homogenized voting block are white people. As a Hispanic I can tell you the only reason more Hispanics don't vote for Republicans in general, not just Trump, is because of racism they feel from Republican politicians and supporters. Many Hispanics, especially those from other countries, can be very socially conservative as many are religious due to the vast reach of the Catholic/Christian church in Latin America. Hispanics are not one unified voting block. We deal with our own forms of racism and colorism toward each other.
I like to joke that the average Republican supporter who espouses "Traditional" family roles and values would have a lot in common with the beliefs of staunch Islamists and "Wetbacks" that they so despise. I fully believe if Republicans dropped the otherism they engage in they would have a solid voting block of minorities for many years.
America could easily solve this problem of course by issuing a nation-wide ID at free or low cost with one uniform application process for receiving one. If America did this I would then support voter ID at the polls. But seeing as how many Americans would react to something like that as if the Devil himself was descending on earth that will likely never happen.
About the minority thing, the only people who think minorities are one giant homogenized voting block are white people. As a Hispanic I can tell you the only reason more Hispanics don't vote for Republicans in general, not just Trump, is because of racism they feel from Republican politicians and supporters. Many Hispanics, especially those from other countries, can be very socially conservative as many are religious due to the vast reach of the Catholic/Christian church in Latin America. Hispanics are not one unified voting block. We deal with our own forms of racism and colorism toward each other.
I like to joke that the average Republican supporter who espouses "Traditional" family roles and values would have a lot in common with the beliefs of staunch Islamists and "Wetbacks" that they so despise. I fully believe if Republicans dropped the otherism they engage in they would have a solid voting block of minorities for many years.
"even if you watch US news every day and keep up with politics"
That is... just about the *worst* way to try and keep up with US politics.
Which may explain why my response to your post is "not even wrong". Your premise and assumptions are so out of touch with the way that things actually happen on the ground that it doesn't even qualify as a false claim.
That is... just about the *worst* way to try and keep up with US politics.
Which may explain why my response to your post is "not even wrong". Your premise and assumptions are so out of touch with the way that things actually happen on the ground that it doesn't even qualify as a false claim.
The US Constitution has no ID requirement, so IDs cannot be required for federal elections. States run their own elections and can make their own requirements.
I don't believe helping the outcome of the election is the reason Trump is trying to get restrictions on voting, at least not directly. Part of his 'aura' is that he is a winner and therefore he needs to be able to deny that Biden won the election in 2020. Also it sets the groundwork for saying that if a Republican lost a close election that it was because the otherside cheated through mail in voting or other means. Mail in voting is a easy target for 2020 since we were still under covid restrictions and many more people used mail in ballots in 2020 than in 2016.
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