Thursday, January 26, 2006
Prediction of time to 70
Taking the data from Playon, it is relatively easy to extrapolate the time needed to level 70, with the big caveat that this presumes that the leveling curve remains the same. We just plot all the data points of the measured accumulated time to level from 1 to 60, and do a power law regression of order 2 through the points. Checking whether this is reasonable is done by calculating the R² factor, the closer to 1 the better, which in this case gives us an excellent 0.9995.
Then we just need to extrapolate the trendline to level 70. The result is that it will take the average player about 8 days (200 hours) to level from level 60 to 70. The total leveling time from 1 to 70 is about 28 days, or 700 hours.
As always in statistics, extrapolation is dangerous. And in any case there will be a wide variation between the most hardcore players and the most casual players, the data on which the calculation is based is just an average. I wouldn't be terribly surprised if the first person to hit level 70 does so only one week after the expansion comes out.
But for the average casual player the interesting point is that by adding 10 levels from 60 to 70, you don't add 1/6th or 17% to the game, you add a full 40%. If it took you 5 months of casual gaming to reach level 60, the expansion will add another 2 months of content to the game. Now that would be an advertising slogan to print on the expansion box:
"World of Warcraft : Now 40% more fun!"