Tobold's Blog
Thursday, March 02, 2006
 
WoW success news

Vivendi Universal quoted the "exceptional success" of World of Warcraft in explaining why they went from a $242 million loss in 2004 to a $49 million profit in 2005. Unfortunately no number is given of how much exactly from this nearly $300 million difference is World of Warcraft profit.

In other WoW success news, World of Warcraft now has 6 million subscribers, which is insofar surprising that the announcement of 5.5 million subscribers was only 6 weeks ago. That is quite a decent growth rate for a game that is over a year old. Although one has to point out that at about 1 million Americans, 1 million Europeans, and 4 million Asians, the majority of WoW players pays a lot less than $15 per month, so WoW does *not* generate an income of 6 million times 12 times $15 = $1 billion per year. Still, income probably is around half that, and even if the profit is just 20%, it still leaves Vivendi Universal with a cool $100 million profit per year. And that's just the monthly (or hourly) fees, the box sales alone must have easily paid for the $20 million development cost of WoW.

The good news in that is that even after giving a large bundle of cash to the parent company, Blizzard still has money to spare for things like upgrading the hardware, or developing new content. And at least on the hardware side it shows. Everybody has horror stories of lag and waiting queues, but if you are objective, you have to admit that things are improving, and Blizzard visibly spent a lot of money on hardware during the last year. I would *not* want to be the hardware manager at Blizzard, who probably had been told to buy hardware for 500,000 players before the game was launched, and then he found out that this estimate was wrong by one order of magnitude. On the development side, Blizzard is doing less well. Given that selling an expansion set for a successful MMORPG is a no-brainer, you have to ask yourself why it takes Blizzard nearly 2 years to get one out. Well, as 2 years was the usual development time for a Diablo patch, at least they stay true to form.

Blizzard also announced to bring out a Spanish language version of WoW, which is not a bad idea given that there are 400 million people world-wide speaking Spanish.
Comments:
I'm gonna take this opportunity to throw up a rant I posted over on the forums at MMORPG.com (this time in depth). I don't mean to hijack your Blog Tobold - but from what I can tell you're the only MMORPG blogger out there with any common sense. Maybe this rant will make sense to you of all people in this sea of idiots we're swimming around in.

There is a contigent of angry people in the business of developing and promoting MMORPG's who are NOT happy with WoW's success. They have been running with erroneous pre-conceived notions of what should make MMORPG's better and more successful for over a decade now, and WoW's success confounds them.

Here's the Rant in Detail

~

This essay is in response to the following editorials published by Nathan Knaack on this website over the past couple of weeks:

The Present of MMORPGs: UO to WoW – Ascensions in technology but a plateau in creativity

The Future of MMORPGs: From tomorrow on – All bets are off

~

I was sorely disappointed to read Mr. Knaack's latest editorials on the past, present, and future state of MMORPG's. While I certainly felt that his attitude and tone in the articles were cynical at best, more than anything I felt like I'd wasted my time in reading them. There really was nothing new to be observed or learned.

To be fair Mr. Knaack says as much in his second editorial - that the ideas he puts forth have been "bouncing around the player community" for years, just that they have never been implemented successfully by any existing MMORPG's. There is a reason for this. Most of the ideas Mr. Knaack points to don't work and are little more than ideological phantasms left over from the computer and internet revolutions of the 1990's.

Before I continue let me also say that I have a great deal of respect for the fine people who run MMORPG.com. It’s an essential resource for any MMO gamer. I visit this site every day and am grateful that they put all their time and effort into it. I’m not attempting to bash Mr. Knaack in this essay, but I am challenging him to truly think “Outside the Box”.

~

Baghdad Bob or The Boy Who Cried Wolf

It absolutely stuns me to hear Mr. Knaack – and even the likes of the Garriot Brothers in recent interviews – proclaim that World of Warcraft is the “Pinnacle of First Generation MMORPG’s”. Indeed Mr. Knaack himself states that “Plateau” is perhaps no more accurate a description for the game. 90% of Mr. Knaak’s first editorial (The Present of MMORPGs: UO to WoW) is spent attacking the perceived weaknesses of the class/level/grind system. How many times do we need to hear that this game model is at death’s door, only to see it used successfully time and time again. Indeed if this game model is so bad why does it continue to survive, and indeed thrive, in it’s paper and pencil incarnation of Dungeons and Dragons. They’ve had over 30 years to change that game if they wanted to – why haven’t they?

They haven’t changed it because it works, and is no where near as weak a model as Mr. Knaack suggests. WoW is as successful as it is because it is an improvement on EQ’s original model, which was an improvement on UO, which was an improvement on MUD’s, which were born from Dungeons and Dragons – which remains essentially unchanged to this day. What we are watching is growth and evolution take place. What we are not watching is a short-sighted, primitive, linear game model stumbling around the MMORPG marketplace like a bull in a china ship to the detriment of progressively thinking game developers everywhere. WoW is a stunning success and is a tremendous boon to anyone involved in making and playing MMORPG’s. This game model is no where near ready to die off and has only just opened the door to a huge potential future.

But just where exactly does Mr. Knaack get some of his ideas anyway?

~

Video Killed the Radio Star

With every advance in technology humans seem to go through a brief period of thinking that everything is now suddenly different because of it. Take birth control pills for example. When they were introduced in the middle of the 20th century it ushered in the sexual revolution. Everyone thought everything about society’s traditional sexual morays could be thrown out the window. You could sleep with anyone you wanted to, with as many people as you wanted to, free love, no responsibilities or attachments. None of that lasted. Sure birth control pills changed some of the ways we approach sex – but it sure as hell didn’t change everything. It didn’t change the essential human condition and the vast majority of values we had before the pill (monogamy, commitment, marriage) remain in place today.

Society went through something very similar to that in relation to the computer and internet revolutions of the 1990’s. Everybody thought that everything was now going to be different because of it. There would be no more grocery stores, no more banks, no more newspapers or magazines etc. We all know what that led to – the dot com bust. Did the internet change some aspects of our lives? Sure – but it didn’t change everything.

If you were paying attention around that time you would have noticed that the entertainment industry was caught up in all of that and went through the same sort of head trip. You heard all kinds of crazy things like people would vote on machines in movie theaters while they were watching them based on whether they wanted a happy or a sad ending. All of a sudden audience participation was going to turn everything on it’s head. Just perusing Wikipedia you get all kinds of weird ideas regarding entertainment that sound really interesting on paper – but as of yet have failed to materialize in reality to any significant degree. Passive entertainment isn’t going anywhere.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/New_media

It was in this time frame that “Virtual Reality” and “Interactivity” became huge buzz words and everyone in every aspect of popular entertainment (Movies, TV, Games, Music) thought it would change everything. Only it hasn’t – and Mr. Knaack hasn’t figured that out yet.

~

And I know sour, which allows me to appreciate the sweet

Nearly all of the ideas Mr. Knaack refers to in his editorial as being improvements on the existing MMORPG model are born of the faddish mindset I described above. Some of what he suggests just plain makes my head hurt. His argument for recycling and attrition in a games’ economy lead directly to the grind he hopes to avoid. Star Wars Galaxies was proof of that. Indeed as he argues for players crafting their own made-up items, buildings, and vehicles as well as running their own factions and quests he seems to be arguing for the disaster that was SWG all over again. Has anything at all been learned from that awful experience? People aren’t sitting in virtual taverns dreaming up heroic adventures because they actually want to BE on an heroic adventure. It’s a game, not a job.

What’s worse is that what he does seem to be in favor of works in direct contradiction to his expressed goal of greater immersion and improved story line. Non-linear character progression, non-linear story lines, non-static geography and NPC’s, moveable player housing – a totally malleable world – all boils down in to one big, gray, and meaningless pile of mush. You can’t have a comic without a straight man. You can’t have the strange without the familiar.

While I agree that some aspects of the game should be customizable he seems to be making the classic mistake of going overboard in this direction. A sandbox does not a MMORPG make. Quality story lines rely on familiar characters and places. People don’t re-read Lord of the Rings because it will have a different ending each time, they do it because they love the world Tolkein created. People don’t go to Disney World over and over again because it will be a new experience each time, they go because they love the rides that are already there. People don’t log into WoW and run the same quests again and again because it will be different monsters and treasure each time, they do it because they love the characters and places Blizzard has created.

~

Every saint has a past and every sinner has a future

To be fair some of Mr. Knaack’s ideas are right on target. Streamlining combat (less floating numbers), moving towards classic FPS controls, streamlining NPC interaction, time based advancement, PvP which exists outside the realm of strict combat, introducing seasonal change – all of these ideas are great. What’s more is that all of these ideas can be worked into a game like WoW, or CoH, or Guild Wars, or any of the other successful MMORPG’s out there.

Also, to be fair, Mr. Knaack’s is correct that eventually players will work through all the content, grow bored, and possibly leave the game. But isn’t this to be expected of nearly everything in life? What exactly is he trying to get at? You can only watch your favorite movie, or read your favorite book so many times before getting bored no matter how good it is. Isn’t he chasing a bit of a white whale here? Just because something can’t be enjoyed in perpetuity doesn’t mean it can’t be an outstanding long-term success.

~

It's called talent. You either have it or you don't

Above all else, where I take the most issue with Mr. Knaack’s essays, lies in the fact that he totally overlooks plain, old-fashioned, God-given talent. As MMORPG’s grow in popularity and acceptance this will become a huge priority for anyone thinking about designing and marketing one.

Take a step back from gaming for a moment. Stop thinking about games, as we have a tendency to do, in cold and rational terms. Think about something else which is much more emotionally accessible and interpretive. Think about music.

Let’s pick a band that almost everyone can agree is a “Good Band” even though there’s no accounting for taste. Consider the Beatles. Most people like The Beatles music. Even for those people who don’t, they will recognize a Beatles song almost immediately. It’s hard to argue that Lennon and McCartney didn’t have talent.

Now lets pick a band that most people would think sucks – the Back Street Boys for instance. Sure they can hold a tune – but talent? On the level of Lennon and McCartney? Nope. Not a chance.

From this point on Talent will be one of the biggest determining factors in the success of any given MMORPG. When you see a screenshot from WoW you know it’s WoW. When you see a screenshot from Eve Online you know it’s Eve Online. When you see a screenshot from Chronicles of Spellborn you know it’s Chronicles of Spellborn. You can’t create the artistic talent reflected in those games with polygons, pixel count, or realism. You can’t replace the musical talent in those games with a movie soundtrack. You can’t substitute the depth and beauty of the lore created for these games with player created events. In order for a MMORPG to be a true success it has to have genuinely talented and inspiring artists working together to bring it to life – just like in any other artistic endeavor.

And that’s exactly what MMORG’s are to a huge degree – artistic endeavors. Where Mr. Knaack’s editorials fail most miserably is in the fact that they ignore this completely. Blizzard makes good games because they have God-given, genuine, creative talent. In the same way The Beatles made great music, Blizzard makes great games.

~

Shut up, shuttin’ up

In conclusion I’d like to reiterate that there is nothing wrong with WoW’s game model, and that many of Mr. Knaack’s suggestions are intellectual roads to nowhere. At best they could be implemented in small doses within a larger, more coherent framework such as the current class/level/quest system – but should in no way to be interpreted as a new foundation upon which to base anything of critical or commercial success.

I’d like to ask Mr. Knaack’s forgiveness in advance for being so blunt, and again take the opportunity to thank him and his colleagues for all the great work they do on this website.

~

Stormgaard

The Se7en Samurai

~
 
I take that back.... Darniaq seems pretty grounded in reality & down to Earth too..

http://www.darniaq.com
 
See now... here's more evidence to what I'm attesting to. Check out this blog entry over at Terra Nova.

Raph's Rants

Fine material from a top thinker.

WTF?!

Raph Koster - who is perhaps the King of all the pointy-headed, intellectual, navel-gazers who subscribe to New-Age, Cyber-Hippie, MMO philosophy - is still lauded among the majority of people in the MMO industry. He was even made the Chief Creative Officer at SOE. One of the respondants to that entry even had the witless audacity to state that...

Given that Raph is Chief Creative Officer at SOE, and that all his comments apply just as much to SOE's virtual worlds as to anyone else's, one of the following observations must be true:

1) We can expect the next wave of SOE virtual worlds to be original, immersive, believable and imaginative.

or:

2) SOE employs Raph primarily to stop someone else from employing him.


Okay now WTF IS THIS CRACK-HEAD SMOKING!?!

Raph Koster hasn't had a creative or commercial success in this industry for over a decade. To top that he's busy running SOE into the ground at a pace which would startle most jet-fighter pilots. All the while WoW is becoming more than just a game - it's becoming a world wide phenomenon.

I don't mean to attack Koster personally - but this is a prime example of how far detached from reality a lot of these people are. There is what is actually happening in the MMO genre - and then there's what they want to believe should happen.

They can't tell their ass-end from a hole in the ground as to which is which.
 
Agreed on Darniaq being as reasonable as me, we used to drive people on the Grimwell Online forums into desperation with our far too reasonable dialogues. ;)

Although you get some minus points for cutting and pasting, you still win the Tobold prize of longest comment on my blog ever. :) I'll try to do my response a bit shorter.

What you observed with Mr. Knaack is something which is a repeated feature on many forums discussing MMORPG, especially bad on Terranova, where there are many developers. The reason that developers and journalists writing about them prefer new ideas, is that coming up with a new idea is interesting, and doesn't require a lot of hard work. Making a game like World of Warcraft, where the excellence lies in the execution, not in the novelty, is a much slower and harder process, and less interesting to the observer.

If you read MMORPG news in the media, Second Life gets as much coverage as World of Warcraft, in spite of WoW having 60 times more subscribers. The best innovative MMORPG I know is A Tale in the Desert, but subscription numbers are measured in hundreds, not in thousands or millions. The influence on game culture of innovative games is often much bigger than their number of players would suggest. But that is a bit like comparing Thoreau's Walden with Rowling's Harry Potter. Nobody says that Second Life, ATITD, or Walden are "bad", they are just not popular, nor accessible to the general public.

While something with low popularity can have high quality, it doesn't mean that something with high popularity automatically has low quality. And while the influence on game culture of small games might be high, you can be sure that if somebody has to make a Powerpoint presentation showing the financial viability of his new MMORPG to some game company executive, he is more likely to point towards World of Warcraft. World of Warcraft has, and will have for some time, a profound influence on the chance of a new MMORPG being able to get financed. Which is a good thing, even if some of the games that will get financed won't be good.

The old class/level system is going to stay with us for a while, because EVERYBODY understands the attraction of "Ding!". (Nearly fell of my chair laughing when I heard the Bloodlord in ZG, who can gain levels by killing players, shout "Ding!" on the occasion. Although Hakkar didn't shout "Grats!" in return.) The attraction of creating your own house in a sandbox game is a lot more abstract, and quite a number of people simply aren't interested. You can't expect *everybody* to be highly creative.
 
Quick comment on the original post.

Personally, I am *very* happy with the hardware improvements Blizzard has made. I remember, with great and profound hatred, the early days of WoW where disconnects were incredibly common and moving through IF was only possible at 5 fps, if that. (A brief nod is required to Captain Placeholder for his dutiful service during those cold months when the boats would randomly drop passengers in the deep oceans.)

Nowadays I exclusively blame my 4.5-year-old computer for my WoW video problems. Blizzard's hardware improvements have made my computer the sole limiting factor.

Add in the servers Blizzard keeps adding to try and alleviate population problems and things may eventually get better. Though I'm not so hopeful right now that I'll stop queueing up at least 30 min. before I want to play at nights. (Damn you Argent Dawn and your nightly queues!)
 
Lord of The Rings = High Quality + Popular.

Elves, dwarves, orcs, trolls, hmm... :)
 
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