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Wednesday, January 31, 2007
The rush to raid slots
Famously the first guy to hit level 70 in the Burning Crusade after release just took 28 hours to do so. But now, two weeks after release, seeing a level 70 character isn’t something exotic any more. But the progression towards level 70 isn’t even; you can see every level from 60 to 70 in Outland. And the distribution isn’t depending on player skill but on available time, as always in level-based MMORPG. I wonder how much of this rush is motivated by people trying to reserve a permanent spot in a guild's raids for them.
Raiding guilds might have some problems, because it is likely that many of them are actually too big now. Raiding guilds tended to invite enough players so that with the average participation rate to raids (which varies from guild to guild) on any given evening enough people show up to fill a 40-man raid. But in the Burning Crusade two effects come into play: the participation rate goes up, as people are more interested in the new content, and the level 70 raid size shrinks from 40 to 25.
In the coming weeks the typical raiding guild will for the first time have 25 level 70 players with a reasonable class mix online, and start their first raids. In that case the selection of who gets to raid is easy, because there are just enough people around to fill a raid. But as time progresses, more and more guild members reach level 70, and then the problems of raid slot attribution will start. Even if there are 50 players online, it is more likely that the guild forms one raid with perfect class distribution and the other 25 people don’t get to raid, instead of trying to form two sub-optimal raids. Predictably there will be some hard choices to make, and a lot of potential for guild drama.
What I am afraid of is that the speed to level 70 will have some effect on the distribution of raid slots. The most extreme example would be a guild’s main tank, who is often selected based on gear. The first batch of tanks reaching level 70, and getting a head start in raiding and endgame solo grinding will always have better gear than tanks arriving at level 70 later. So the temptation is there to invite the better-geared tank more often, or even exclusively when available. Of course that leads to a vicious spiral, where the better-geared people get to raid more often, improve their gear even further, and the gap between them and the less-well geared is continually growing. Similar considerations could be true for other classes, where gear also has some effect on things like mana pool or dps.
Ideally raid slots would be distributed as fairly as possible between people reaching level 70 earlier and later, to keep a large number of people well-geared. The reason for distributing raid slots, and therefore raid gear, evenly over the guild is to minimize the effect of people leaving the guild. In the weeks and months after the first raid the excitement will cool down, and some people will most probably burn out. If you favor the “first to 70” group of people when handing out raid slots, tempting as it is, chances are that it is exactly these people who burn out first, because they go raiding most often. The best equipped tank leaving and having to be replaced by somebody who rarely was allowed to participate in raids sets back the whole guild raid progress significantly.
But chances are that guilds will confuse fast leveling either with skill or dedication, neither of which is really true. In the short term inviting always the same 25 people to all raids of course speeds up raid progress. But in that case the people coming late to the party find that they never get invited. They might leave the guild, but even if they stay they aren’t really good replacements in case any member of the original hard core burns out, because they lack the gear and experience. Distributing raid slots among a larger number of people is the better long-term strategy. Sooner or later raiding guilds will shrink, by splitting or people stopping to play, until they are of the right size to regularly support 25-man raids. But the process to get there could be more or less painful, depending on how much value the guild puts on fast leveling progress.
- posted by Tobold @ 5:36 PM Permanent Link
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I would imagine that most players who are already Lv 70, are raiders.
I don't have much interest in raiding, therefore taking my time, doing quests at my own pace, and simply wandering round Outlands is what I'm doing at the moment, and I'm having a great time. Dinging levels is only a by-product of my game play so far(just hit lv63).
I still haven't chosen between Aldor and Scryer, just doesn't seem to matter at the moment.
I found a waterfall yesterday at the edge of the world, so to speak.
Simply for pleasure, I stripped off all my gear, jumped into the river (avoiding basilisks), and took the long dive off the edge of the world! Great fun!
I don't have much interest in raiding, therefore taking my time, doing quests at my own pace, and simply wandering round Outlands is what I'm doing at the moment, and I'm having a great time. Dinging levels is only a by-product of my game play so far(just hit lv63).
I still haven't chosen between Aldor and Scryer, just doesn't seem to matter at the moment.
I found a waterfall yesterday at the edge of the world, so to speak.
Simply for pleasure, I stripped off all my gear, jumped into the river (avoiding basilisks), and took the long dive off the edge of the world! Great fun!
# posted by 
: 31/1/07 18:04
: 31/1/07 18:04
In addition to who-gets-to-70 first, the problem of who-is-attuned will be coming up as well. For some of the instances and raids, there are pretty hefty attunement and reputation requirements (Revered with X faction, do this quest which requires runs in these X instancs).
Dave has it exactly right. I think that will be the most difficult barrier to entry (for both guilds and players) for some time to come.
# posted by : 31/1/07 18:54
: 31/1/07 18:54
Dave, ana...if you haven't seen the attunement chart, I here (warning, your brain will hurt if you stare at it too long):
http://tcsgamer.blogspot.com/2007/01/charting-path.html
Regardless, those same hardcore gamers who raced to 70 will cut through the attunement requirements like a hot knife through butter. These types of WoW hardcore players are usually quite insane and would step over their own grandma for da phat lewts. I give it another week or two before we see the first 25 man raid for Mount Hyjal.
http://tcsgamer.blogspot.com/2007/01/charting-path.html
Regardless, those same hardcore gamers who raced to 70 will cut through the attunement requirements like a hot knife through butter. These types of WoW hardcore players are usually quite insane and would step over their own grandma for da phat lewts. I give it another week or two before we see the first 25 man raid for Mount Hyjal.
I think raid distribution will depend on the guild. The guild I was in used a raid sign up, first come, first server, x number of each class allowed to sign up, remainder going on wait list method. The uber geared and the lesser geared had the same chances to go, though generally the uber geared were the ones who signed up for every single raid.
Sadly my guild suddenly fell apart and self destructed in a fanfare of elitist guild drama the week before BC came out, so I don't know if they'd have continued that policy in BC raids.
Sadly my guild suddenly fell apart and self destructed in a fanfare of elitist guild drama the week before BC came out, so I don't know if they'd have continued that policy in BC raids.
# posted by : 31/1/07 19:26
: 31/1/07 19:26
Tobold, I posted an almost identical essay on my blog today. Great minds think alike and all that...
Long story short, this is starting to come up on my guild's forums and the impending doom feeling of guild drama is starting to creep up on me.
Long story short, this is starting to come up on my guild's forums and the impending doom feeling of guild drama is starting to creep up on me.
Well, when I cancelled before TBC hit it was obvious that my guild would be falling apart. We were all fairly mature adults and there was no drama to be seen but I think everybody knew that people would finally be going their separate ways. Honestly, that was what decided things for me that I was going to cancel. I felt like getting off the raiding treadmill, but I probably would have stayed on if I knew I'd still be hanging out with my same group of friends. The idea of getting back on the treadmill with a new group just didn't make much sense, regardless of the multiple options I had.
Within a week of my announcing I was cancelling, all the dominos fell. People jumping servers, people jumping guilds, new guilds forming, people jumping off the raiding treadmill. No drama at all, just announcements of where you could (or couldn't) find people.
Sadly, I looked around and found no pending or current game that really piques my interest. My closest friend and I are more than likely going to roll on a medium population server where we know nobody, roll Horde to experience quests we haven't seen before, and purposely level up incredibly slowly with no intentions of ever getting back into the raiding game. Now hopefully we can both stick to that, regardless of the fact that both of our personalities pull towards the raiding life.
Within a week of my announcing I was cancelling, all the dominos fell. People jumping servers, people jumping guilds, new guilds forming, people jumping off the raiding treadmill. No drama at all, just announcements of where you could (or couldn't) find people.
Sadly, I looked around and found no pending or current game that really piques my interest. My closest friend and I are more than likely going to roll on a medium population server where we know nobody, roll Horde to experience quests we haven't seen before, and purposely level up incredibly slowly with no intentions of ever getting back into the raiding game. Now hopefully we can both stick to that, regardless of the fact that both of our personalities pull towards the raiding life.
In my old guild we could see the writing on the wall with the 25 man raid caps, as well as I always felt that there were 10 people in the raid that were doing nothing but freeloading. I was an officer and the MT. Like in everything, there are people that you are naturally "allied" with for whatever reason and we had a pretty clear split in the guild leadership. So the raid leader (who was a co-gm of the guild) and myself created our own guild and took "our players" with us about a week before the BC hit.
This allowed us to shed some of the people who caused us issues whether it be raiding or in vent, and as we are co-gms we shouldn't have to worry about the MT or the RL leaving and setting back our progression. We used to have set rosters in our old guild but we saw the same problems that you described, and we are going to make a real effort to get everybody involved that wants to raid. We level and do instances, but raiding is the top priority.
We aren't a "server first" type of guild but we expect to go through most of the end-game content.
We are certainly not the only guild to do this and as whole we are all much happier now. We went from a guild of 200 accounts (about 320 toons) to a guild with ~50 accounts. We are trying to limit the number just so that very situation you describe is avoided.
This allowed us to shed some of the people who caused us issues whether it be raiding or in vent, and as we are co-gms we shouldn't have to worry about the MT or the RL leaving and setting back our progression. We used to have set rosters in our old guild but we saw the same problems that you described, and we are going to make a real effort to get everybody involved that wants to raid. We level and do instances, but raiding is the top priority.
We aren't a "server first" type of guild but we expect to go through most of the end-game content.
We are certainly not the only guild to do this and as whole we are all much happier now. We went from a guild of 200 accounts (about 320 toons) to a guild with ~50 accounts. We are trying to limit the number just so that very situation you describe is avoided.
# posted by : 31/1/07 21:00
: 31/1/07 21:00
I'm a slow leveler compared to people who get to play the game all day and night long. Yet when it came to showing up for raids consistently, on time and prepared, I could be relied on.
Who cares if you could spend 24 hours a day for a week or two leveling, if you never bothered to show up for the few hours your guild needed you to raid for the past year?
I would hope raid leaders keep that in mind.
Who cares if you could spend 24 hours a day for a week or two leveling, if you never bothered to show up for the few hours your guild needed you to raid for the past year?
I would hope raid leaders keep that in mind.
I rushed to 68 partly to keep up with my guild and partly because I really, really wanted to fly (I'm a druid). After 68, I slowed down considerably and just flew around for a little while.
I guess the next thing is attunement, but most of it requires a group of 70s. I don't mind hovering above them while they catch up.
I guess the next thing is attunement, but most of it requires a group of 70s. I don't mind hovering above them while they catch up.
# posted by : 1/2/07 01:10
: 1/2/07 01:10
I think you're right that raid groups will go through problems, but I don't think you're right about the issue. I don't think it's about the size of the raid, at least not directly. For one thing, there is 10-man content as well, so 35-man raids can effectively be arranged, with players rotated between each. Second, if there will be the same number of players wanting to raid at 70 as there were at 60, there will be almost twice as many people available. New guilds, or secondary groups, will spring up to take the load. It's not like there weren't people wanting to lead their own group before. Whether this leads to guild splits or not doesn't really matter in the end, as raid groups came and went and the people who wanted to raid found a group, for the most part.
The problem, as I see it, is who do you take in the 25-man group? In the 40-man raids, it could be easily broken down in to 5 of each of the 8 classes, with some variation as desired. Most classes got a good chance to raid, and content was created to encourage balanced raids. With the Burning Crusade, hybrid classes, like druids and paladins, are getting far more equipment to perform more than just the healing that they were generally expected to do in the Azerothian raid dungeons. We are seeing more DPS hybrids, either physical or spell damage, than before, because the new gear is designed specifically to allow this.
But what of the raid content? Do we still need each class to be healers, but also require druids and paladins to be DPS? Will shadow priests and fury warriors be required for some content? If so, there will be more slots available in the raid group for those classes that can perform different tasks than those that are more focussed, like mages, rogues, hunters and warlocks.
And this, I feel, will be the cause of more drama than merely smaller groups. Rogues cannot respec and spend some time at the AH to change their role to healer or ranged damage; they are physical melee fighters, and they do that excellently. Yet a druid can repsec and get new kit and be physical DPS, ranged magical DPS, or a healer, and be able to change depending on what any one raid group is looking for at the time. If the raid group isn't looking for more DPS, respec and apply as a healer. Mages can't do that. As soon as one role is filled in a raid group the single-role classes are screwed. The hybrids will win out, and it's likely that those classes will be the ones that are most likely to see the new raid content at 70.
It's possible that the new raid content demands a balanced range of classes. Indeed, judging from the old raid instances, the designs got better and better and required all classes to be good at most abilities to succeed. If that tend continues there will still be a place for all classes. Whether hybrids will be taken in specifically as hybrids, meaning that they will be expected to multi-class in the instance, or whether the hybrid classes will need to perform their iconic role as well as have some others in that class perform the multi-class role all remains to be seen. If it's the former, with all classes being equal, all should be well. If the latter, and hyrbid classes get more, maybe double, the number of slots as single-role classes, we will see a lot of pissed of players who will find it difficult to see the end-content for a decision they made 70 levels ago.
The problem, as I see it, is who do you take in the 25-man group? In the 40-man raids, it could be easily broken down in to 5 of each of the 8 classes, with some variation as desired. Most classes got a good chance to raid, and content was created to encourage balanced raids. With the Burning Crusade, hybrid classes, like druids and paladins, are getting far more equipment to perform more than just the healing that they were generally expected to do in the Azerothian raid dungeons. We are seeing more DPS hybrids, either physical or spell damage, than before, because the new gear is designed specifically to allow this.
But what of the raid content? Do we still need each class to be healers, but also require druids and paladins to be DPS? Will shadow priests and fury warriors be required for some content? If so, there will be more slots available in the raid group for those classes that can perform different tasks than those that are more focussed, like mages, rogues, hunters and warlocks.
And this, I feel, will be the cause of more drama than merely smaller groups. Rogues cannot respec and spend some time at the AH to change their role to healer or ranged damage; they are physical melee fighters, and they do that excellently. Yet a druid can repsec and get new kit and be physical DPS, ranged magical DPS, or a healer, and be able to change depending on what any one raid group is looking for at the time. If the raid group isn't looking for more DPS, respec and apply as a healer. Mages can't do that. As soon as one role is filled in a raid group the single-role classes are screwed. The hybrids will win out, and it's likely that those classes will be the ones that are most likely to see the new raid content at 70.
It's possible that the new raid content demands a balanced range of classes. Indeed, judging from the old raid instances, the designs got better and better and required all classes to be good at most abilities to succeed. If that tend continues there will still be a place for all classes. Whether hybrids will be taken in specifically as hybrids, meaning that they will be expected to multi-class in the instance, or whether the hybrid classes will need to perform their iconic role as well as have some others in that class perform the multi-class role all remains to be seen. If it's the former, with all classes being equal, all should be well. If the latter, and hyrbid classes get more, maybe double, the number of slots as single-role classes, we will see a lot of pissed of players who will find it difficult to see the end-content for a decision they made 70 levels ago.
Is this not a self correcting situation? Remember how guilds that got people to lvl 60 were abandoned when people hit the raiding circuit. I guess a similar guild shakeout will happen at lvl 70.The pee in a bucket players will be raiding within the next few weeks while those with less time to play will take longer. If players find that their old guild's raid slots are full they will leave to form new guilds and new raid groups with others who play about the same amount as themselves. The gap between "pee in a bucket" and "semblance of a life" players will continue to increase but is that not always the case?
Chu Chu brings up some interesting points that have been appearing on our guild forums. Theoretically a large guild could take advantage of the new smaller raid sizes, allowing more opportunities. However, our concerns are the difficulty of ensuring acceptable class balance in several parties, not only for the first night's runs, but for the rest of the reset cycle, since characters will be locked to their groups save.
There is also concern about the viability of alternative builds. Pre-expansion, a 40 man raid could afford the "luxury" of shadow priests, etc. Will this still be the case with a 10 or 25 man group, or will characters have to be optimized for their role in the raid?
Our solution to some of these issues was to downsize before the expansion, and warn that respecs may be required. It will be interesting to see how other guilds respond.
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There is also concern about the viability of alternative builds. Pre-expansion, a 40 man raid could afford the "luxury" of shadow priests, etc. Will this still be the case with a 10 or 25 man group, or will characters have to be optimized for their role in the raid?
Our solution to some of these issues was to downsize before the expansion, and warn that respecs may be required. It will be interesting to see how other guilds respond.
# posted by : 1/2/07 15:43
: 1/2/07 15:43<< Home
