Tobold's Blog
Thursday, March 15, 2007
 
Unrealistic expectations

Two things happened in the last couple of days: One, I got several mails and comments saying that I should get more interested in Warhammer Online or Age of Conan or Chronicles of Spellborn. And two, I've seen more commentaries about Lord of the Rings Online being "unoriginal" and "not true enough to the Tolkien lore". Abalieno laughed at me for calling LotRO the "next big thing", because he thinks the game needs to be closer to the books.

The thing is, that most major MMORPG are following a typical hype trajectory. As long as you can't play them, as long as there are only a few alpha testers, and lots of features listed on some website, the MMORPG in question is the greatest ever. As soon as the beta phase has grown large enough for many people to actually try the game, people realize two things: Much of the gameplay of the new game is very similar to the gameplay of any other MMORPG, and the hyped "new" features in fact aren't much better than what we had before. In the end it all boils down to how well these well-known characteristics are executed, and whether the few new things and the new world are fun to explore.

I'm especially laughing whenever I read how LotRO is too similar to WoW. Because two-and-a-half years ago the same sort of people were complaining how WoW was the same as Everquest. The basic gameplay of MMORPG, where you kill mobs to gain loot and xp to level up, where you have a tank taunting mobs, a healer patching up the tank, and some others dealing the damage, hasn't changed in ages. And tell you what, that will still remain the same for quite a while, and Warhammer Online will be called an unoriginal copy as soon as people get to play it. You can rename the brilliant EQ-parody Progressquest to Progresscraft, or Progress of the Rings, or Progress : Age of Reckoning, and the joke will still apply.

So here are some answers I'd like to give to comments about upcoming games:

1) "LotRO is a WoW clone": Doh! That's why I want to play it, man! You can rephrase that critique in marketing-speak to "LotRO is a fine example of the state of the art in MMORPG development, exhibiting all the good features that have evolved over the years, and have been proven so popular in World of Warcraft", and it would remain just as true. It just depends on how you look at it. I don't *want* a game that is radically different from WoW, and neither do the majority of the other players out there. Hey, I would have bought "WoW: The Middle-Earth expansion", so why shouldn't I buy LotRO?

2) "LotRO isn't true to the Tolkien lore": No kidding! You mean a game in which 3,000+ would-be heroes per server interact with each other can't exactly reproduce the atmosphere and experience of reading a book by yourself? Who'da thunk that! If you had imagined that you'd get to be the ring-bearer and you'd never get to see other people exhibiting Tolkien-untypical behavior like /ooc chat or "farming mobs", maybe you're in the wrong genre of games. People are people, and a lot of the behavior you'll see in LotRO from them will make Boromir look like a rather upstanding guy in comparison, and Samweis look heroic.

3) "Don't play WoW/LotRO, play WAR instead": I'm not discounting the possibility of Warhammer Online : Age of Reckoning turning out to be a great game, in fact I rather hope it will be. But the most optimistic estimate of its release date is Q4 2007. And there is a significant chance that either it will be released at that date but widely be considered as unfinished and not ready for release (call it the "SOE model"), or that the release date will slip into 2008 (the "Blizzard model"). Even if it miraculously turned up in perfect shape for the christmas sales, that is *still* 8 months of waiting time. I need a game to play *now* (WoW) or an alternative very soon (LotRO). I'm still calling LotRO the "next big thing", not because I think it will "kill WoW", or because I'm sure it will be better than WAR. But because I think it will sell several hundred thousand copies, significantly outselling any previous Turbine game and the other recent arrival on the market, Vanguard. And it will do that because it is "good", without necessarily being "better", and because the timing for a WoW-alternative is right. Warhammer Online is probably the "next next big thing", but people aren't going to hold their breath until then. Other upcoming games, like Chronicles of Spellborn or Age of Conan have some interesting features, but probably not the same mass-market appeal. They can be successful in their respective niche, just like Vanguard claims to be successful with over 100,000 subscribers. But they will operate on a completely different tier of the market.

In short, don't get carried away by your expectations, don't believe the hype, and take the upcoming games for what they are: attempts by trial and error to improve an existing genre of games, without destroying the proven popularity and profitability.
Comments:
This is such a brilliant post! Thanks, and well said Tobold!
 
"imagined that you'd get to be the ring-bearer "

And everyone wants to be a Jedi too.
 
Completely different case, Gnome. There was at one time, very many more than one Jedi. There was never more than one ring-bearer.

Well said Tobold. Going to have to news this on the Vault. It's essentially the same argument I've been having with the game's detractors.
 
Feel free to lump me with the detractors, with this opinion, for the sake of discussion, in response to 2) "LotRO isn't true to the Tolkien lore" and the general acceptance that expectations are unrealistic and thus we should settle for inferior quality:

I'm in my late 20s now, and grew up in the US Midwest reading all sorts of fiction and non-fiction (balanced with a lot of time outside). The Hobbit was the first "thick" book I read, secretly reading further after my dad was finished reading it aloud (once he found out, after I asked him to pick up from where I left off, he laughed and handed me the book). Soon after, I read the Lord of the Rings, Simarillion, and the Unfinished Tales. I dabbled in the LotR RPG for a bit, taped the Mind's Eye production of The Hobbit off public radio, bought and played the Middle-Earth: the Wizards CCG, listened to LotR on CD, eventually saw the movies (somewhat grudgingly, but they were good), re-read LotR last summer, and now I draw the line at this game.

I've played WoW now for two years, with a 7-month break in the middle for time abroad. I know how immersive this particular MMO can be. If LOTRO is as immersive, then I want no part of it; the story as I know it has already been told, and I visit it now and then in my head. I'm willing to see the movies because they tell (for the most part) the same story and are well-executed. I'm willing to play the CCG (the old one with the sometimes-good, sometimes-bad art) because it is not so immersive as to threaten the story. The MetW CCG is like playing Axis and Allies; you get a chance to re-write history, all the while recognizing it is just a game. LOTRO is not just a game, it is a synthetic world, one in which the user inhabits and influences. I just don't want to go there, because I appreciate the masterful Job Mr. Tolkien has done and see no reason to muck about in a rough attempt at facsimile of the world he created.

I did get pretty excited when I first heard about this synthetic world based in Middle Earth, but then I came to my senses. I would consider playing a LotR single-player game, even one involving the Fellowship, because the story has a beginning and an end. Grinding away in WoW is fine, but the prospect of grinding away in Middle Earth while the real heroes do their thing is just not appealing; I'd much rather read the books again. Sticking firm to the lore AND providing a synthetic, persistent world for the masses is an impossible task; I say don't bother. I could see playing a limited-multiplayer game, grouping with a few friends in an essentially single-player game, but the mayhem that is part of what I like about World of WarCraft doesn't fit in my impression of Tolkien's world. I will not settle for something that does not meet my expectations; my time is too valuable.

(The one thing I like about Turbine's venture is the single-payment lifetime membership. Really a great idea, and something I'd like to see offered for other games.)
 
Very well said Tobold
 
Hold on a moment Tobold Samwise really was a hero. He is perhaps the most important hero in the whole saga. It is only through Sam's steadfastness and ultimately through Sam's compassion that [spoiler] the ring is finally destroyed [/spoiler].

Pedantry aside though another great post Tobold. Well done.
 
Somtimes I think LoTRO might be better if set in a different age, but then maybe not. I was thinking about LoTRO and DDO, it seems with LoTRO they are not making the one mistake they made with DDO: worrying about the lore purists.

DDO also was put in Eberron not the Forgotten Realms. People often defending this saying: too many people familiar with FR lore would be constantly complaining about how it wasn't true enough to the lore. By setting it in Eberron, they had a much freeer hand, and less complaining, and it would be more accepted.

Initially I agreed with this, but now I realize that was wrong. If they did make an explorable world instead of a city with instance portals, and if it was FR not Eberron, I'd be playing it still, for all my complaints about it not matching lore.

In the end, even if I see things that go against the lore I know, and even when that might bother me, still I'm more interested in having fun and being in an immersive environment. And that's the majority of people who probably care even less about lore than me (I noticed the difference between LoTR movies and the books and complained a little but I still watched them over and over)

It's like the difference between an "art appreciation" courses and actual appreciation of art, i.e. analysis vs enjoyment. And the bottom line is the more people enjoy themselves and play, the more popular it will become, and the better game it will become since they will be able to justify spending money on improving it.
 
I don't believe that WoW's character development system is very good, thus I do not believe that LOTRO's copy of the WoW character development system is very good. I'm sick of WoW as a game, and I was definitely looking for something new. For those who aren't sick of WoW it might be a good game. I really wish DDO wasn't so awful (instanced everywhere, lack of a true community, very little content) as an MMO, or else I'd pick it up over NWN2 multiplayer which is currently very laggy and hardly playable, but still at its heart is a better game with a far superior character development system.

I don't know why I expected the MMO genre to get better. Progress, my left behind.
 
By the way, DDO was not set in Eberron because of lore purists. It's because it's a cheaper setting than Forgotten Realms and was devised specifically by WOTC as a cheap sell off for gaming. Sometimes money drives more than we really know.

Just like how priests/druids are the least classes in WoW, so when other classes start having trouble killing them, they get killed off instead through nerfs. Nice move Blizzard. Yes, yes, we all believe you did it in the name of "balance." But money feeds the bottom line, doesn't it?
 
LOTRO appears to be more polished than your typical mmorpg, with lots of solo content. That formula worked well for WoW, and I see no reason why it won't work for this title.

I think a lot of folks just want solo, duo, and one group content, and if LOTRO can give them what they've run out of in WoW, then they'll give it a go.

My only beef with LOTRO is that I couldn't resize the interface. That damn compass/radar screen consumes my entire screen. Well, not quite, but almost, so does anyone have any good LOTRO skins that can resize that thing?
 
Grinding away in WoW is fine, but the prospect of grinding away in Middle Earth while the real heroes do their thing is just not appealing; I'd much rather read the books again. Sticking firm to the lore AND providing a synthetic, persistent world for the masses is an impossible task; I say don't bother.

I actually agree with the argument that it is impossible to stick firm to the lore in a MMORPG. My point was more that the people who criticize Turbine for not managing this impossible task had unrealistic expectations. You can't chide LotRO for not being true to the lore, because reasonably you couldn't expect it to be possible to do so.

Whether that is appealing or not is a different story. It's a bit like going to Disneyworld and visiting the Pirates of the Caribbean themed area. That is *not* the same as seeing the movie again, because a theme park can't tell a story, just like a MMORPG can't tell a story. Nevertheless there are lots of people who say "well, I already know the story, and I'm having fun in a surrounding which reminds me of the story". LotRO is an online Tolkien theme park, not a retelling of the epic story of the ring.
 
I found myself wrapped up in a pool of hype when a bunch of my friends started talking up Vanguard. A month after Vanguards release, I find myself laughing at that game despite my best effort to take it seriously. Something about watching my char chop down a tree barehanded is comical to me.

LOTRO looks good from what I have seen, and I like some of the features like the rewards that are given for exploration, but I am sure I will have to try a trial copy from one of my friends before I commit. Right now there just isn't anything better than WOW which is driving me nuts.
 
In short, don't get carried away by your expectations, don't believe the hype, and take the upcoming games for what they are: attempts by trial and error to improve an existing genre of games, without destroying the proven popularity and profitability

And look who's done them. WoW isn't so damn good cause some company throw 80 million into the EQ-copy machine. It takes skill to make these games and it takes experience. It's not like copying EQ, throw onto a new/old IP and call it a day. Anything right now in the making will be crap in a sense that nothing will gain WoW market share anytime soon. When WoW launched there were more than 7 million current WoW players, who never ever touched any MMO. Try to find another 7 million soon who never touched WoW before. That will be a challenge. Besides those shacky WoW numbers, this market is a numbers game now. All the current games we know are coming, will aim for WoW players rather to expand the market and thats why most will fail in the long run. Do we even consider sub-1-mill numbers a success?

This genre and market is stuck as long as the industry cannibalizes itself. The true "next big thing" will not come from SOE, Turbine, Blizzard or this baseball company aka Green Monster Games, aka 38studios. Just look how this baseball player's MMO studio is approaching the market, it hires people who worked for years on subpar MMOs, last person they signed is now former EQ2 lead designer. Guess what the product will be like. Yeah i can't wait. No one cares who copies whom, everyone does. If your copy sells, that's the question. We consider WoW as benchmark now, not cause it's so good, but cause it sold 8 millionen boxes. It doesn't work anymore to copy EQ and polished it some, that's what Vanguard tried. So now it's up to copy WoW and finetune it. Good luck with that. When studios start to design their own game and mix it with what WoW did right and not just add their skins ontop of a WoW copy, the thing will sell.

Any upcoming MMO has to beat the WoW mentality in peoples minds. WoWs media presence is so huge, that almost any potential player seems to know what WoW is about, even without playing it. I have a lot of friends who do not play WoW and even those will be hard to grab as new players, if your product is weak. It gets harder and harder to impress even those people.

In short: wait for the Bioware MMO, this project has real potential.
 
Abalieno is a complete idiot who knows nothing. He really is a complete amateur with no idea what he is talking about. Hell, he's never played WoW past mid-30's.. wtf does he know about WoW except what he's read from other people?
 
Excellent post. I think instead of writing long drawn out replieds of the same thing over and over to various trolls, I'm just going to cnp a link to this page and call it a day. It sums up alot of what I have said myself.
 
Maybe I'm unique in this, but the world is secondary to my experience. I'd like to see one of these games try to break free of the human/dwarf/orc/elf format. Is that wrong? Is this a case of trying to fix what isn't broken?

And I've almost hurt my brain trying to figure out a way to break the tank/dps/healer mold too. But this one may prove to be very difficult. When you break down any of these games it comes down to taking damage, dealing damage and healing damage.

But I can imagine the possibility of a game that creates its own unique world, with unique races and classes that blur the lines of tank/dps/healer.

And that my friends... will be the next big thing. Until then, all we are really talking about are slight variations on the same theme. Pick your flavor, but all these games are the same. And hey... maybe there isn't anything wrong with that. But I'd love the chance to try.
 
In responce to "hank", are you for real sir? You do realize that LotRO is a mmorpg, its a game. Games are ment to be fun. If you would play a single player LotR game that held absolutely true to what you read in the books you would be ok with that. You would not be okay with playing LotRO because it couldn't get the lore down 100%. Why not just read the book over and over again and not even play the single player? You're getting the same content in a different format. A MMO opens a whole new world were lure can't be perfected, and it shouldn't be. I play wow and I don't "picture" myself as a gnome in azeroth. I just play the game to have fun. While the lure is great perk, MMO aren't about the lure, the story. MMO's are about making your own epic adventure, with the help of thousands of others. Some of these others will you call you a "noobcake". Noobcake doesn't fit into Warcraft lure, I still think don't care because I'm playing to have fun, if you play a MMO for the story....don't play an MMO. You make me sick, and you stank!
 
There are lots of Korean games that break away from the orc/elf/dwarf format, but they usually fall short in other ways. I've also seen them break way from the tank/healer/dps mold, by taking away the healer and having everyone spam health potions. Not exactly a fun enterprise, but at least everyone can tank and dps, and no one is left complaining about having to healbot.

Truly engaging character development comes from multiclassing and developing a unique set of character stats, which seems like no MMORPG ever wants to approach. D&D Online could have been so good... but it failed.
 
@ Tobold: I don't mean to criticize Turbine for not managing the impossible task of keeping true to the lore in an MMO, I'm just sorry to see them try. But, as Crazyflanger points out, people just want to have fun in these fantastic settings, and since many don't care about staying true to the lore the point is moot. I never really liked theme parks, in any case.

@ Crazyflanger: My point was that MMOs are very immersive, the world Tolkien created is amazing and rich, and I do not want to further lose my view of it by playing an MMO that attempts to meld story and the nature of a persistent synthetic world. If I had never read the books, or if I didn't value them much, I would have an easier time suspending disbelief and could probably really enjoy LOTRO. "Why not just read the book over and over again and not even play the single player?" I'm content to do exactly that.

"...if you play a MMO for the story....don't play an MMO." There's a difference. I don't play WoW for the story (though I like the idea that all they have to do for the next bit of story is open a six-pack and start brainstorming), I play it for reasons like you mentioned. I won't play LOTRO because the story it presents and the story in my head will conflict more than I'm willing to let it (at this point, anyway; maybe I will come around to your POV and stop bothering to care). Even if I didn't pay attention to the LOTRO story, the fact that it is set in an area I'm already familiar with is asking me to alter my interpretation more than I want to.

@ anyone: My first thought when I heard about LOTRO, after the initial interest, was "what kind of lifespan will this game have?". By basing it on a relatively complete (the author being deceased...) work of fiction, there seems to be a built-in stop-point. Is Turbine licensed to create whatever it likes to keep the content alive, or are they just planning on having their heyday and burning out once the Next Big Thing comes along? There's certainly a lot to draw from, but it's not boundless.
 
Well, like I've said before, my big problem with LOTRO is that its combat feels extremely unresponsive relative to WoW. I'm also pretty burned out on the whole WoW thing. Not that WoW is bad, just that I've had enough of it and I'm no longer getting anything out of it. Give me a futuristic MMO like War 40k, or a ship-based game like EVE online for the casual player...

At least one of AoC and POTBS will probably be a disaster, but they'll be interesting disasters anyway.
 
Eriador, the tiny NW corner of the Middle-Earth map is all that is presented upon release of LotRO on 4/24. 300+ hours of gameplay have been crammed into that small portion of Middle-Earth, and we can't even get to Moria, which is halfway through the 1st book or so.

Following this logic, there's plenty of room for expansion for a good handful of years, and the average lifespan of an MMO being 5--7 years, I think this gives Turbine plenty to work with.

By the time we hit the dropping of the Ring into Mount Doom, it could be 2015.

Not to mention the fact, that in LotRO, you're not "following" the Fellowship. The game that's launching in April doesn't even follow the fellowship. Our focus as characters lies on the gathering evil to the north in Angmar, not Mordor and where the Ring is headed.

Hank, read those books some more, and remember all thos spots that Tolkien talked about things but didn't go into too much detail? A descendent of Bard taking back The White Mountains (right?), battles in Harad, Rhovanion, etc? That's what we'll be seeing in LotRO.

Not the story from the books directly, but the sub-plots that Tolkien was never able to fully flesh out. Rest assured that Turbine has hired a dozen or more "Tolkien Experts" to make sure they don't stretch things too much.

There' more than enough room for expansion, and I for one am looking forward to watching my own character's story develop independently of the Books.
 
I still love EQ2, but I'm bored with it right at the moment. I'm back in WoW to play with some friends, but I figure that won't keep me going more then a few months this time either (I made it 6 months last time, I'm not a raider). I have preorded LotR, and I plan to pay for the lifetime subscription. I figure with three games to move between I might manage to stave off MMO burnout. (After I quit WoW I actually played nothing but SP, and not many of those, for close to a year).
 
I agree with Tobold and have said as much on my blog too. It's LOTRO in the setting of MMORPG - things will need to be sacraficed for the betterment of a game. If you need the exact lore read the books. You want something close watch the movies. If you want that in a game, go get someone to build you a single-player RPG.

It is like the next thing for WOW players who've just had enough of WOW at the moment. It's good enough until the next thing comes along that will really grab me by the throat and leave me panting to play. It isn't the game I'll be playing 2 years from now because the pace is more like EQ2 which I just can't play for more than a month or two at a time.

But like Tobold said, the other games are many months away, so I'm fine with giving Turbine a few bucks until then since the beta has showed me this is a pretty good game.

WOW has probably broken me on playing healers. Vanguard broke me off pre-release purchase before actually being in the beta for myself. For now, Turbine is the better alternative.
 
I've been thinking this same thing for a while now, but could never have said it anywhere near as well as you did. Very nice!


I've also seen too many comparisons between LotRO's interface and WoW's, saying that it is also cloned from wow. If they had taken a look at AC2's interface (which is older than WoW and coincidentally *also* by Turbine) they might have seen that it is far more similar to AC2's interface than it is to WoW's. As though WoW created an entirely original interface rather than refining and polishing what other MMOs had created...

I see in this game a lot of the things I loved about AC2 polished and presented better, in a setting more people feel attached to (though I liked Dereth as well) and with a few elements influenced by WoW and EQ2. It's a heck of a lot more polished than AC2 as well, which is a big thing.

I'm definitely getting the lifetime supscription.
 
Nice post mate. When it comes to playing games, the only opinion that really matters is your own. No one can tell you to like a game - or a book or a film for that matter. I always find it humorous when people get agitated because people like something they don't.

I've got LOTR Online on pre-order (I shall skip any BETA/Stress tests) - and I'm looking forward to finding out if I like it as much as you seem to ;).
 
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