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Thursday, November 29, 2007
Guesstimating numbers
Changed asked in a recent comment: "I am curious about your estimates for these percentages of WoW players (say the 2M in North America and Europe):
% of people with level 70's
% of people who have entered Karazhan
% of people who have finished Karazhan (killed Nightbane)
% of people who have entered 25-man TBC raids
Wowjutsu provides some numbers but doesn't indicate how many of those toons are on the same account / same player. Any thoughts?"
I posted a reply, but before I copy that here, I'd like to discuss the subject a bit. Estimating numbers based on fragments of data we have and personal experience is extremely difficult. For example Changed mentions 2 million WoW players in North America and Europe, while I thought that of the 9.3 million total players about 4 million are from North America and Europe. But those are just numbers I remember from the last time Blizzard published numbers by region, and this could easily have gone down to 3 million or less since then.
The best source of raid population data is WoWjutsu. They use data from the WoW Armory, which is much more reliable than relying on user input. But the best they can do is count "raid guilds", and declare every member of a raid guild to be a raider. This is only true for the top raiding guilds. There are lots of casual guilds with large memberships, of which only a fraction ever went raiding. WoWjutsu only counts raiders, their total number of "players" listed is the total number of people in guilds with Karazhan loot. Which is why they have 100% of "players" listed as having been to Karazhan.
One principal problem of all sorts of counting population in online games is whether you count players, characters, or characters actually online. For example if we wanted data on how many people play Alliance and how many play Horde, the sum of the two as expressed as a percentage of all subscribers is over 100%, because some players have both. If you count online players, you give more weight to the players who are online more hours a week, and less weight to those who rarely play. My estimates are based on the number of suscribers, not on the number of characters, or online characters. The number of raiders as expressed as a percentage of online characters would be higher, because raiders usually play more.
So here are my half guessed, half calculated estimates:
% of people with level 70's
I'd say about 70%. I've used CensusPlus and saw over 60% of people online on my server being level 70. But of course many of the lower levels online were alts, while on the other hand all census software undercounts very casual players who just aren't online.
% of people who have entered Karazhan
WoWjutsu counts 1.9 million raiders out of a population of roughly 4 million US and Euro players. But this counts every guild member of a raiding guild as a raider, even if half of them never went to Karazhan, thus I'd say around 30%.
% of people who have finished Karazhan (killed Nightbane)
% of people who have entered 25-man TBC raids
Those two numbers are probably close to each other. According to WoWjutsu 1/3 of all players entering Karazhan also entered Serpentshrine, so the number is probably around 10%.
Feel free to give your own estimates in the comments. But don't just throw around numbers, give some arguments with them and tell us why you think there are more / less raiders than I'm guessing. And remember, this is percentages out of total number of European and North American subscribers.
- posted by Tobold @ 7:14 AM Permanent Link
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The real answer to this is that WoWjutsu should provide this. They do the scanning anyway, but drop/don't display it in this form.
If they kept: Total players and total number of players (not guilds) with instant loot you'd get a very good per-character number.
Currently there is no way to know alts, so even this will be an overestimate on how many subscribers have seen instances, but it'd be as good as farming armory gets.
Never understood why Wowjutsu doesn't provide this sorting option because evidentally he does the scanning to do this.
The guild grouping has been critiziced many times. On my server the vast majority of raid groups are not guilds hence the number of "false" raiders spreads rather drastically by 1-2 people from large non-raiding guilds getting very far. In my opinion the guild grouping should just be dropped, but I understand that it's there to serve the "competitive souls" out there.
If they kept: Total players and total number of players (not guilds) with instant loot you'd get a very good per-character number.
Currently there is no way to know alts, so even this will be an overestimate on how many subscribers have seen instances, but it'd be as good as farming armory gets.
Never understood why Wowjutsu doesn't provide this sorting option because evidentally he does the scanning to do this.
The guild grouping has been critiziced many times. On my server the vast majority of raid groups are not guilds hence the number of "false" raiders spreads rather drastically by 1-2 people from large non-raiding guilds getting very far. In my opinion the guild grouping should just be dropped, but I understand that it's there to serve the "competitive souls" out there.
# posted by 
: 29/11/07 10:23
: 29/11/07 10:23
Is Nightbane the last boss in Karazhan? He is an optional boss, and you don't need to go very far into Kara in order to reach him.
I would say the Prince is more the 'end boss' (just my opinion).
I still think Karazhan is a casual raid (I know many of you probably disagree). I would say proper raiding starts with Magtheridon/Doomwalker, and continues into SSC and beyond.
Wowjutsu is unofficial, so people really shouldn't be criticising the poor guy who owns the site for not providing all the data people think he should.
Even Blizzard don't bother to show characters below level 20 (I think) on the Armory, nor characters that have not been played for some time.
I think it is very difficult to try and guess how many people are playing WoW, based on stuff like the Armory. In my guild there are so many different types of players:
Casuals with 4 or 5 alts, hard-cores with 9 or 10 alts, casuals/hardcores with no alts. Would be interesting if you could read the number of accounts rather than the number of characters in a guild.
I would say the Prince is more the 'end boss' (just my opinion).
I still think Karazhan is a casual raid (I know many of you probably disagree). I would say proper raiding starts with Magtheridon/Doomwalker, and continues into SSC and beyond.
Wowjutsu is unofficial, so people really shouldn't be criticising the poor guy who owns the site for not providing all the data people think he should.
Even Blizzard don't bother to show characters below level 20 (I think) on the Armory, nor characters that have not been played for some time.
I think it is very difficult to try and guess how many people are playing WoW, based on stuff like the Armory. In my guild there are so many different types of players:
Casuals with 4 or 5 alts, hard-cores with 9 or 10 alts, casuals/hardcores with no alts. Would be interesting if you could read the number of accounts rather than the number of characters in a guild.
# posted by : 29/11/07 11:37
: 29/11/07 11:37
Most guilds do their first 25-man TBC raid in Gruul's Lair, not Serpentshrine. According to WowJutsu, 70% (of guilds that have raided Karazhan) have also downed at least High King Maulgar. Based on that, the last two percentages would be 20%.
Was there a specific reason why you took Serpentshrine as the beginning of 25-man TBC raids?
Was there a specific reason why you took Serpentshrine as the beginning of 25-man TBC raids?
# posted by : 29/11/07 12:05
: 29/11/07 12:05
Was there a specific reason why you took Serpentshrine as the beginning of 25-man TBC raids?
Yeah, but it is more a question of semantics. In principle even killing King Maulgar with 25 people is a "25-man raid", but I'd rather call it an "event" or "encounter". Just like Onyxia was a side event of the level 60 raid circuit, Gruul's lair is a side event of the level 70 raid circuit. If you only do the king, you can do it in an hour or so, that isn't the same as a multi-day raid.
Yeah, but it is more a question of semantics. In principle even killing King Maulgar with 25 people is a "25-man raid", but I'd rather call it an "event" or "encounter". Just like Onyxia was a side event of the level 60 raid circuit, Gruul's lair is a side event of the level 70 raid circuit. If you only do the king, you can do it in an hour or so, that isn't the same as a multi-day raid.
And what about those guildless/arenaless players?
The way I understand it, WoWJutsu looks for areena teams then extracts the players then the guilds and then the remaining players.
I have 8 or 9 toons alliance side on the same realm: they're all now part of the same guild so that I can use Guild Bank, but there's no-one else in that guild but my toons, and none of them is playing arenas, so in fact, my 70, 62 and other chars aren't part of WoWJutsu's stats.
No big deal, I'd say, but how many of other players around play guildless or in a similar situation as I do? Are those enough to have a significant impact on the overall stats?
Granted, those that do as I do, are probably casual players with little time to play and thus would not count for the Kharazan part, but they could add some % to the non-kharazan side...
The way I understand it, WoWJutsu looks for areena teams then extracts the players then the guilds and then the remaining players.
I have 8 or 9 toons alliance side on the same realm: they're all now part of the same guild so that I can use Guild Bank, but there's no-one else in that guild but my toons, and none of them is playing arenas, so in fact, my 70, 62 and other chars aren't part of WoWJutsu's stats.
No big deal, I'd say, but how many of other players around play guildless or in a similar situation as I do? Are those enough to have a significant impact on the overall stats?
Granted, those that do as I do, are probably casual players with little time to play and thus would not count for the Kharazan part, but they could add some % to the non-kharazan side...
# posted by : 29/11/07 14:49
: 29/11/07 14:49
Would creating a survey or sampling be a more accurate way of coming to the counts?
Your readership might not be truly unbiased when it comes to a sample group, you probably couldn't derive total playing population of customers from that. But you *could* get to the answers to your questions amongst your readership: how many characters on average, how many have hit level cap on 1 or more of your characters, how many got into X, Y, or Z location in the end raid zone. If it weren't done by random sampling you'd have some implied error in the method, but you're not trying to launch a rocket to the moon on this data either.
Your readership might not be truly unbiased when it comes to a sample group, you probably couldn't derive total playing population of customers from that. But you *could* get to the answers to your questions amongst your readership: how many characters on average, how many have hit level cap on 1 or more of your characters, how many got into X, Y, or Z location in the end raid zone. If it weren't done by random sampling you'd have some implied error in the method, but you're not trying to launch a rocket to the moon on this data either.
Question is:
Lets say 30% make it to the end of Kara and the other 70% don't.
Is that really good enough?
Lets say 30% make it to the end of Kara and the other 70% don't.
Is that really good enough?
# posted by : 29/11/07 16:04
: 29/11/07 16:04
I see your point about Gruul's Lair being a side-event, and the same argument holds for Magtheridon. Defined like that, the number of people in 25-man TBC raids is indeed 10%.
However, that does not mean 10% of the players have finished Karazhan; that number is probably somewhere between 15 and 20%. I am saying that because after finishing Karazhan, players cannot simply go to Serpentshrine and down a boss there. They will first have to gear up through Gruul's and Magtheridon (and Void Reaver), and for those places they need to have finished Karazhan. So I think that the percentage that has finished Karazhan is in the range of downing Maulgar and Gruul, which is 50%-70% of players who have started Karazhan. Therefore, the percentage of players having finished is between 15 and 20%.
However, that does not mean 10% of the players have finished Karazhan; that number is probably somewhere between 15 and 20%. I am saying that because after finishing Karazhan, players cannot simply go to Serpentshrine and down a boss there. They will first have to gear up through Gruul's and Magtheridon (and Void Reaver), and for those places they need to have finished Karazhan. So I think that the percentage that has finished Karazhan is in the range of downing Maulgar and Gruul, which is 50%-70% of players who have started Karazhan. Therefore, the percentage of players having finished is between 15 and 20%.
# posted by : 29/11/07 16:31
: 29/11/07 16:31
Wow I've done all of those...I win at wow..
I have a level 70.
I've entered Karazhan.
I've killed nightbane...although only once...the only time I ever got to nightbane....and my my guild exploited him.
I've entered grull and that other 25 man boss.
I've done it all...I win.
I'd rather know statisics on:
-How many people cleared entire dungeons?
-How many people attempted said dungeons?
-How many hour were spent on raids? Keeping in my time raid forms and time raid ends.
This would be usefull to determain if raiding is even worth it...for the gear, or the experience of raiding. Personally I'm guessing 5 hours a night is needed and that is way too much for me.
I have a level 70.
I've entered Karazhan.
I've killed nightbane...although only once...the only time I ever got to nightbane....and my my guild exploited him.
I've entered grull and that other 25 man boss.
I've done it all...I win.
I'd rather know statisics on:
-How many people cleared entire dungeons?
-How many people attempted said dungeons?
-How many hour were spent on raids? Keeping in my time raid forms and time raid ends.
This would be usefull to determain if raiding is even worth it...for the gear, or the experience of raiding. Personally I'm guessing 5 hours a night is needed and that is way too much for me.
"WoWjutsu counts 1.9 million raiders out of a population of roughly 4 million US and Euro players."
Is that characters or accounts? I'd wager that people who tend to raid probably raid on multiple characters, but I haven't seen any data on how many average characters per account.
Is that characters or accounts? I'd wager that people who tend to raid probably raid on multiple characters, but I haven't seen any data on how many average characters per account.
# posted by : 29/11/07 19:19
: 29/11/07 19:19
srand: it's characters. I know that for fact, because there are a total of 31 characters in my guild who are listed as having Karazhan gear, but there are also only around 15 total people that have been to Karazhan in my guild. I personally account for 3 of those characters (Paladin, Druid, Warrior).
Don't forget, there are also many guilds like mine that don't do any 25-man stuff at all, but pretty much exclusively stick to 10-man content. We're pushing our way through Zul'Aman, and have had Karazhan on farm for many moons, but have no interest in (nor manpower for) 25-man content.
I'd actually posit the number approaches the usual 80/20 divide.
--Rawr
Don't forget, there are also many guilds like mine that don't do any 25-man stuff at all, but pretty much exclusively stick to 10-man content. We're pushing our way through Zul'Aman, and have had Karazhan on farm for many moons, but have no interest in (nor manpower for) 25-man content.
I'd actually posit the number approaches the usual 80/20 divide.
--Rawr
# posted by : 29/11/07 20:07
: 29/11/07 20:07
70% of toons being level 70 seems reasonable to me.
In my casual raiding guild, the breakdown between characters (toons) and players (people) goes like this:
1 toon: 1/2
2 toons: 1/3
3+ toons: 1/6
I think it would be a reasonable estimate to say an average of 2 toons/player.
Of 4M players, Wowjutsu lists 1.9M raiding toons. Discounting the multiple toons brings it down to 1M, which is 25%. Maybe dropping it to 800k, or 20%, to account for people in raiding guilds who haven't yet gone to Karazhan.
My guild killed Nightbane a few months after Prince because you have to complete the heroic quests first. We also killed Maulgar once, and are trying ZA now. But we are far from entering SSC. Looking at our server progression list on the WoW forums, I see:
11 guilds entered SSC and downed at least 1 boss
24 guilds entered Karazhan and downed Nightbane
36 guilds entered Karazhan and downed at least 1 boss
That means my final estimates are:
The top:
70% have level 70's
20% have entered Karazhan
13% have finished Karazhan (killed Nightbane)
6% have entered SSC
So turning those numbers into a pie-chart distribution:
30% have not reached level 70
50% are 70 but never entered Karazhan
7% are working through Karazhan
7% have finished Karazhan and working on ZA or GL
6% are working on SSC or higher
That means the ratio of Kara+ raiders to level-70 non-raiders is 2:5. If you were to inspect people in Ironforge or Shattrath, you should see about 1/3 of the people with Kara gear or better. But because raiders probably play more hours, bump that up to maybe 1/2.
I'm sure Blizzard knows these numbers and plans their development around them. It looks like ZA caters to at most 13% of the population. Blizzard must be saying to the lower 87%: get to level 70, go do heroics since we lowered the rep requirement, and finish Karazhan!
In my casual raiding guild, the breakdown between characters (toons) and players (people) goes like this:
1 toon: 1/2
2 toons: 1/3
3+ toons: 1/6
I think it would be a reasonable estimate to say an average of 2 toons/player.
Of 4M players, Wowjutsu lists 1.9M raiding toons. Discounting the multiple toons brings it down to 1M, which is 25%. Maybe dropping it to 800k, or 20%, to account for people in raiding guilds who haven't yet gone to Karazhan.
My guild killed Nightbane a few months after Prince because you have to complete the heroic quests first. We also killed Maulgar once, and are trying ZA now. But we are far from entering SSC. Looking at our server progression list on the WoW forums, I see:
11 guilds entered SSC and downed at least 1 boss
24 guilds entered Karazhan and downed Nightbane
36 guilds entered Karazhan and downed at least 1 boss
That means my final estimates are:
The top:
70% have level 70's
20% have entered Karazhan
13% have finished Karazhan (killed Nightbane)
6% have entered SSC
So turning those numbers into a pie-chart distribution:
30% have not reached level 70
50% are 70 but never entered Karazhan
7% are working through Karazhan
7% have finished Karazhan and working on ZA or GL
6% are working on SSC or higher
That means the ratio of Kara+ raiders to level-70 non-raiders is 2:5. If you were to inspect people in Ironforge or Shattrath, you should see about 1/3 of the people with Kara gear or better. But because raiders probably play more hours, bump that up to maybe 1/2.
I'm sure Blizzard knows these numbers and plans their development around them. It looks like ZA caters to at most 13% of the population. Blizzard must be saying to the lower 87%: get to level 70, go do heroics since we lowered the rep requirement, and finish Karazhan!
BIG DISCUSION: How few people can you have to down each of the 25 man's if every person has at least lvl 125 gear and is very experienced in downing the boss.
I guesstimate that 18 people like this could take down gruul's lair. My roomate,who also plays, says 20. I say Kara can be done with 8. He says 9. Can i get some clarity on this dilemma?
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I guesstimate that 18 people like this could take down gruul's lair. My roomate,who also plays, says 20. I say Kara can be done with 8. He says 9. Can i get some clarity on this dilemma?
# posted by : 13/2/08 07:20
: 13/2/08 07:20<< Home
