Wednesday, April 22, 2009
Too much speculation
Warcraft Econ posted WoW economy observations of the first week of patch 3.1, in an attempt to explain why the predictions of every single WoW economy blog on items which would go up in price were dead wrong. The only item which did make money on many servers was glyphs, and even with these there were some servers (including mine) where glyph prices went down instead of up with the patch.
Basically the advice that you can make a lot of money from a patch, by looking at what crafting materials are needed more after the patch, and buying them cheap before the patch hits, is self-defeating. Yes, demand for something might go up by 10% after the patch. But if enough people stockpile it, you end up with supply still outstripping demand, and prices falling. Especially if the demand is only going up slowly, because it is based on rare drop recipes from a new raid dungeon.
So across the board on my server I mainly observed another big step in deflation, with most crafting materials now costing less than before the patch. Maybe the predictions that people would need more of certain things for Ulduar or for the new crafting recipes was right, but with too many people speculating on these predictions, the expected price increases never happened. And of course all the epics you can craft now look less good compared to Ulduar loot than when they were still compared to Naxxramas loot. Buying somebody a bunch of epic gear has never been as cheap as today, compared with income from daily quests etc.