In 1508, Juan Ponce de León reported on the hurricane San Roque. Other reports of extreme weather events go back way further, and are even in the bible. The term "act of god" describing natural disasters is actually a legal term now, and not affiliated with any specific religion. People with different beliefs thus attribute extreme weather events like hurricanes to different sources: Some believe they are caused by human-made climate change, others believe that they have always been there, or are an expression of some divine will.

Even the best meteorologist can't possibly draw a direct causal link between any given hurricane and global warming. What climate science says is that global warming increases the probability of extreme weather events. Humans in general really suck at estimating probabilities. A change in probability of a hurricane arriving isn't tangible; even when the hurricane actually arrives, you still don't know whether global warming was involved in that, or whether it would have occurred even without climate change.

But if you have doubt about whether climate change is real, you could dispel that doubt with a simple, practical exercise: Inform yourself about the cost of homeowner insurance in Florida. It turns out that *some* humans are better at estimating probabilities than others; they are called actuaries and are mathematicians working for insurance companies. If you want to insure your house in a region that can be struck by hurricanes, an actuary will calculate the probability of this happening again, and the insurance premium will be calculated based on that. Yes, there are market inefficiencies, and yes price gouging by insurance companies can happen. But in the end a very large rise in the cost of homeowner insurance over time reflects a change of reality, a change in the probability of extreme weather events occurring.

The unbelievers are still fighting back. As part of the Agenda 2025, American conservatives propose to defund the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration for the crime of giving out severe weather warnings in record numbers this year. But while you could silence a federal agency, no government would be able to change the actuaries' numbers and make insurance companies deny climate change. The gods of climate change are here, smashing in our windows. Time to start believing!