Tobold's Blog
Wednesday, March 21, 2007
 
Calibrating my crystal ball

The physicist Niels Bohr once said "Prediction is very difficult, especially about the future.", a quote that is also sometimes attributed to Nostradamus. I went on record saying that Lord of the Rings Online will be the best selling game Turbine ever produced, which means getting more than the 120,000 subscribers that the first Asheron's Call had. I also predicted that it would probably even beat the current subscriber numbers of Everquest, which means over 200,000 players. Said like that, this are just numbers. How did I estimate them?

One source is annecdotal evidence. Like the general chat in the LotRO beta or in the forums, where a majority of beta players say that they will buy the game. Or from the other side, the number of people you meet in World of Warcraft who say that they are bored with it and are looking for a new game. This gives me a general impression about LotRO being popular with people that tried it, and a potential pool of customers willing to try something new. But that isn't talking numbers yet.

To get from there to a number, you need a another number to compare it with. For me that number is a statement from Brad McQuaid that Vanguard : Saga of Heroes has "well over 100,000" subscribers. Why this number? Because Vanguard is comparable to LotRO in a number of aspects. Both are triple-A titles produced by people and companies that have been around since the first big wave of commercial MMORPGs. Both are released in the first half of 2007. Both have the same monthly fee business model (although LotRO adds to that with the founder's club business model). Assuming that Brad isn't lying through his teeth, this gives me a number to calibrate my crystal ball with.

And now it's back to guesswork and extrapolation. Having played both the Vanguard and the LotRO beta, I think everyone here noticed that I like LotRO a lot better. LotRO has the more interesting world, less boring grinds, and a lot less bugs. And that isn't just my opinion. I read a lot of previews and reviews about both Vanguard and LotRO, and the reviews on Vanguard are at best mixed, with "unfinished" and "bugs" getting a lot of mention. The echo that LotRO gets is a whole lot more positive.

Then there is the different target audience to consider. The Escapist just has an interesting article about games targeting a more casual crowd. The best-selling PS2 game for 2005 was a quiz game called Buzz!, which most serious gamers considered to be simplistic and boring. But it sold over 4 million copies. The game's developer David Amor presented at the GDC what he considers to be the factors for success: familiarity, simplicity and approachability. And if WoW has teached us anything, it is that the same formula is true for MMORPGs. LotRO is more familiar, more simple, and more approachable than Vanguard. And while there are people that will scoff at familiar, simple, and approachable, I still think that these are important parameters for the mass market. Hey, even SWG got up to 250,000 subscribers, just based on familiarity.

This isn't necessarily a measure of "value". I'm not saying that LotRO is twice as good as Vanguard. It is just a measure of "success", and I *do* believe that LotRO will sell at least twice as many copies as Vanguard. Because Middle-Earth is so much more familiar than the rather generic Telon. Because LotRO is simpler than Vanguard. And because the intro of LotRO, having first an instanced soloing zone with a story-line, and then a newbie zone you can only leave through another instanced story, is a lot more approachable than the newbie zones of Vanguard. So if Vanguard sold over 100,000 subscribers, LotRO should get at least 200,000 together. Which would make it the number 2 MMORPG in the US and Europe after WoW. (Not world-wide, due to the much higher subscriber numbers of Asian games like Lineage or FFXI) Everything beyond that becomes impossible to estimate, because it will depend also on things like marketing, and how well the retail launch goes.
Comments:
I know, because of where I work, and how much I openly say I dig this game, that I'm getting branded a fanboy for it, and that's fine. When I'm enthused about something, I exxagerate. I glow with excitement for it.

Hell, I was hyping the crap out of Auto Assault at one point (sheds a tear for that game). But I really do think you're right. The calm, rational, gamer in me thinks this game will be a large success.

At the very least, it's selling well on pre-orders, from Amazon to Gamestop.com and the likes, it's consistently atop their lists, and has been since the Founders announcement. I think, so long as they can deliver the consistent content upgrades they've promised, we'll all be in for a very fun ride.

Oh and Tobold, "And if WoW has teached us anything, it is that the same formula is true for MMORPGs."

'Teached' is not a word, is it? :)

-JoBildo
 
I looked it up, teached is the correct form for it, ... in Trinidad. :) Yeah, yeah, damn spelling police, the rest of the English-speaking world should use "taught" of course.
 
I don't know if it was your intent or not..... but I actually preordered mine based on several of your earlier posts on the game.

I'll try to get Turbine to send you a thank-you letter or something.
 
Tobold, this is the internet. You're not supposed to back your position with reasoning and sources. Now rewrite this and take all that "data and reference" crap out.
 
Subscription numbers for LOTRO may have just taken a plunge, as Turbine now has announced that players from Europe (and other countries) won't be able to play on the North American servers - and vice versa.

Turbine initially invited players to the Beta program, and asked specifically for testers from large and established guilds, as they would be given preference into the Beta program of LOTRO. Later, Turbine responded to a query on International game access, that Europeans wanting to play on American servers (or other regional servers) would be able to do so, IF they used that regional client intended for those regional servers.

But now - they have announced that there will be an IP-blocking mechanism in place, thereby forcing players to ONLY play on their own regional servers.

For the large and established (and in MANY cases international) guilds, this is devastating, as they no longer can play with their guild mates from around the world.

Turbine did this once before with Asherons Call 2 - announced two days prior to launch that Europeans would not be able to play on the US servers. Back then - the resulting uproar from the fan base, who had been playing with international friends from all over the world, were suddenly segregated and could not play together. Numerous cancellation of orders resulted, and those that didn't cancel their subscription quickly found themselves isolated in the world of Asherons Call 2. Although this particular reason may not be the only case for AC2's demise, it certainly wasn't helpful either.

For LOTRO things may be different, in that many of the players of this game is to be expected to be completely newcomers to the MMORPG games in general. But for all those loyal fans, which have been playing with international friends, this has been devastating news to say the least.

The message boards (both the public and close beta-boards) have been swarming with people declaring they would cancel their pre-orders. Every effort has been made to try and convince Turbine that this is truly a bad decision for the gaming community at large, but so far, Turbine (and Codemasters, the European distributor) has been painfully silent.

It is the hope, that Turbine and their partners will come to see the wisdom in providing a set of international servers, and I would urge everyone to join in the debate (bloggers and posters on gaming boards alike). Perhaps we CAN make a difference and convince the "powers that be", that bilding an artificial wall between gaming communities is perhaps not the best business decision possible.

With best regards

Brell (formerly of Leafcull in AC1)

Ref: https://www2.blogger.com/comment.g?blogID=5584578&postID=546017349340356611&isPopup=true
 
holy falling skies, batman :/
 
OH NOES. I understand the reason some are upset... but saying their numbers are taking a plunge is a but extreme.

Hell, a week's gone and the complaint posts have all but vanished. There's more to the situation that meets the eye, and I'm sure Turbine didn't "do" it, because they wanted to. They have 2 different publishers, one in US and one in the EU. It's highly like that this has something to do with it.

Just saying, don't put all blame on Turbine. They're not Blizzard, or EA, or some big game maker that can choose these sorts of things. On these matters, they still have to follow their publishers decisions as it's likely worked into their contract with them.

It sucks, because Lok and I won't get to play with our friend/friends from across the seas, but it's certainly not the end of the world, as it were.
 
I did not say the numbers of subscribers WOULD take a plunge, but that they MAY take a plunge. A week after the announcement, this topic is STILL heavily debated on the boards. The top three threads on the beta forums show more than 10,000 views over the past 5 days.

On the European (Codemaster) forums the topic is still a VERY hot issue. People are extremely dissatisfied with this policy as it places an artificial division between players in international guilds. To say that this will have only little or no effect on the revenues would be a huge understatement.

A poll conducted on the US beta forum shows that 20% would opt to cancel their subscriptions rather than buy a regional client, not allowing them to play with friends abroad.

So there are many indicators, that this decision will not only adversely affect the gaming community as a whole, but also Turbine and their partners.

I come from a guild that has been playing various games over more than the past decade. We have come to know each other personally; many of us have crossed the Atlantic to meet up in real life. Sure some will be playing LOTRO with the regional client, but MANY have also opted to cancel their preorder. And seemingly – we are not alone in this situation.

It may not mean a lot in the immediate future, but those of us, who look forward to playing with our international friends, will certainly be looking for the next game that DOES permit players to gather on international servers. Once we find this game – we will be pushing for people to come join us, and as history showed us with AC2, that was exactly what happened. People ventured to DAoC and later SWG, and left AC2 behind, never to look back.

I believe the same will happen with LOTRO, unless Turbine comes up with a solution to this problem, that they themselves have created.

With best regards

Brell
 
Wow Brell,

Funnilly enough I was going through my MMORPG history and the first game I thought about was AC 1. I was well down the allegiance chain but somewhere far below you on the day you Dinged lvl 100 on leafcull, many many moons ago :)

Brell Clan was my first real guild and I still have fond memories of it. I was not shocked however to know that you are a reader of Tobold and his blog. Always a good read. Quality readers too.

Tully
 
As for the Turbine not being so big I just wanted to say they employ more than 200 people. Compared to Blizzards 250 employees that's quite big me thinks.

Back in the days I always thought Wizards of the coast, the publishing company behind AD&D was a huge company due to them having the then biggest success in roleplaying games. Turned out it was a mini company that got taken over by Hasbro.
 
My guess for LOTRO is something in the 300k+ range by the end of april, and I wouldn't be particularly surprised if it did better.

- Pre-orders have it holding steady around 3-4 on the PC game charts, mostly just from people in closed beta.
- This is the first big casual-friendly PVE questing MMO to be released since WoW changed the market.
- There's a big pool of people who leveled and then quit WoW more than a year ago at level cap. I bet a good chunk of them would be willing to come back and do it again.
- I think they'll also pick up a lot of players during open beta who have hit a wall with BC (raiding really hard and time consuming, rewards stink, expansion has really exposed the grind psychologically).
- It'll probably get good but not spectacular reviews, in the 8-9 range, that will attract the attention of many of the more casual players.
- LOTR IP isn't as strong as it would have been a few years ago, but it still helps.

Add it all up and I can see the game selling a million boxes over its lifetime between europe and north america depending on how the endgame additions/pvmp play out. Not that that means a million concurrent subscriptions. Not sure how it will do in asia at all.
 
Yeah, it's just a fact that many people enjoy leveling, and raiding will never be a substitute for them, and I'm one of those people )

Blizzard really dropped the ball in not offering new content for all level ranges, but then again - Burning Crusade is selling like hot cakes, so what the heck do I know )

You can't argue with the numbers, and the numbers say that millions of peeps luv their WoW and BC.
 
TULLY!!! Now that's a name I remember for sure :-)

Great times we had back than. All I ask now - is that we are given a chance to do that again. Please do digg my blog on this issue, if you would like to support this cause.

http://brellsgaming.blogspot.com/

See ya out there, Brell
 
"but then again - Burning Crusade is selling like hot cakes, so what the heck do I know )

You can't argue with the numbers, and the numbers say that millions of peeps luv their WoW and BC."

It is true that TBC has done very well with sales, but plenty of personal experience, anecdotal evidence, and perusing the WoW general forums suggests that the game is on a downhill slide. Speaking as someone who has played WoW religiously for the last two years as a very "hardcore" gamer, the expansion has been a big letdown in many ways.

The new zones and leveling period with quests and things to explore were fun, but once you hit the level cap you begin to see what I feel are many of it's biggest flaws. Perhaps since I leveled so quickly (60 -> 70 in about a week's time, my husband and I took some vacation time to spend questing and leveling together as many uber-geek couples will do :)) I've had more time to come to this realization than many who are still leveling.

But, just within my own guild we've lost several of our long-term, solid players since the expansion's release, most of them citing unhappiness with the new raiding system/requirements (10/25 man vs. 40-man, leaving many out, and the general hassle that is trying to form multiple balanced 10-man raids from the guild's active roster), heavy farming requirements, issues with class balance, and in general just a feeling of no real "progression" as the items from the time consuming, consumables-heavy raids don't really offer anything better than the quest items/small instance rewards.

While further down the road Blizzard will probably use content patches to address some of these concerns, my feeling is that it will be too late for many of their long term subscribers.

Perhaps I'm just getting old, but I'm tired of feeling like I'm "babysitting" each night to get through a raid with the "kiddies" the game seems to have attracted more of over time. It seems from my perspective that many of the more mature or experienced players have had it with TBC and if just my own guild and server acts as a microcosm for the game as a whole, I think that they are definitely on a downhill slide.

Games like LotRO are coming along at just the right time for many who are feeling burned out by 2 years of WoW. Many in the WoW community are waiting for Warhammer Online as the great "WoW killer." I don't think any particular MMORPG will kill WoW, but I do think that several of this year's titles have a very good chance to take varying numbers of their playerbase.

Judging by forum posts, conversations with friends, and my own feelings, I think that Warhammer will probably attract a lot of the PvP-oriented WoW crowd, but I think that LotRO stands a very good chance to attract a large number of the more casual or perhaps burned out, mature players from WoW. I am not in the beta but I've preordered the game and have read many of the fan sites and forums and am very much looking forward to trying it out.

My impressions so far is that it is attracting an overall older, more mature playerbase than the majority of WoW, and this is part of it's appeal for me. Not to mention that many people are drawn to the idea of being a part of Middle-Earth and may pick it up simply to "see what it looks like."

Anyway in conclusion, I definitely can see LotRO easily achieving and exceeding 200,000 subscribers. I just hope that they are able to meet expectations for the game and give us something with longevity that we can enjoy playing for many days to come.
 
Have you seen the terrific article on this weeks escapist: "The future of Massively Multiplayer isn't you"? http://www.escapistmagazine.com/issue/89/22

It raises the sobering thought that for MMO's to become truly mainstream they may turn into something that we commited gamers - the pioneers of online gaming - do not want.

I think I am convinced - the online worlds that will finally break into the maintream with 100's of millions of suscribers are more likely to be like "The Sims Online" or perhaps even "Second Life" than Everquest/WOW clones like LOTRO. Massively multiplayer soap opera rather than dungeon raiding.

In fact despite gamers suspicions about Second Life and its flakey ss suscriber numbers SL is certainly winning the battle for mainstream media attention. I can't see SL becoming mainstream though because the client is so awful and the game world so tacky. I think any maintream punter trying to dabble in SL would quickly flee in horror at the awkward controls and sleezy world.
 
What developers want, and Koster is big on this, I think, is a self regulating mmorpg, that generates it's own content, without needing anything from the developers, except the occassional graphical updates or technical tweaks.

A player driven world, with player generated content, with very little overhead - not a game really, but a giant online ant farm.

No, Koster and his ilk have evolved past making mere games; they're world builders now, and the publishers will be eager to buy into his vision, because it has all the familiar media trappings that look good on the bottom line.
 
To help calibrate your crystal ball you can look at some links to best selling PC game software:

Amazon is supposedly updated hourly. I just took a look and the LotRO preorder is number 2 with WoW BC 8 and WoW 9. I can’t even find Vanguard now but was in top 10 for about 2 weeks at release.
http://www.amazon.com/gp/bestsellers/videogames/229575/ref=pd_ts_c_th_head/103-0328435-1243832

At EB games the regular preorder is number 1 and the collectors addition is number 4. Regular reorder has been in top 5 for 4 or 5 weeks. Vanguard release was in top 5 only 2 weeks and don’t think the preorder ever showed up.
http://www.ebgames.com/default.asp?sect=1278

At best buy LotRO only shows up at number 10 but has been on list for weeks. Never saw Vanguard.
http://www.bestbuy.com/site/olspage.jsp?id=pcmcat99100050041&type=category
 
I will be one of them. I just bought my pre-order a few days ago, so I get to start in about a week. woohoo!
 
HERE COMES THE BOOM

IP Blocking removed:
http://lotrovault.ign.com/fullstory.php?id=27822
 
INDEED great news!

Thank you Turbine... I am sure you will see a positive reaction to this for sure!

See ya all out there, Brell
 
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